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First R esults of Thunderstorm Forecast Verification in Terminal Aerodrome Forecast s in Croatia. Jadran Jurković and Igor Kos Croatia control Ltd, MET Division Croatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012. Croatia Control Ltd. Introduction.

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first r esults of thunderstorm forecast verification in terminal aerodrome forecast s in croatia

First Results of Thunderstorm Forecast Verification in Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts in Croatia

Jadran Jurković and Igor Kos

Croatia control Ltd, MET Division

Croatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012

Croatia Control Ltd.

introduction
Introduction
  • Part of Quality management system (ICAO Annex 3)
  • Forecasts Improvement
    • Understand correct, miss, false alarm events
    • Verification of special problems
      • Convection (TS)
      • Fog (reduced visibility)
      • Wind (especially bora events)
  • Thunderstorm (TS)
    • Mesoscale phenomenon (deep and moist convection)
    • Month with max. frequency of days with TS has 12-25%
    • Impact on aviation

First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012

Croatia Control Ltd.

verification a larger view
Verification- a larger view

= ≠

REAL STATE OF ATMOSPHERE

FORECASTER’S PICTURE

WEATHER FORECAST

OBSERVED WEATHER

  • TAF(T=9/24 ∀3/6h)
  • Surface wind
    • Direction
    • Speed
    • Gusts
  • Visibility
  • Present weather
  • Cloud
    • Amount
    • Height of cloud base
    • [TCU/CB]

Change groups

-BECMG

-FROM

-TEMPO

-PROBABILITY 30/40

  • TAF
  • Surface wind
    • Direction
    • Speed
    • Gusts
  • Visibility
  • Present weather
  • Cloud
    • Amount
    • Height of cloud base
    • [TCU/CB]

Change groups

-BECMG

-FROM

-TEMPO

-PROBABILITY 30/40

  • METAR
  • Surface wind
    • Direction
    • Speed
    • Gusts
  • Visibility
  • Runway visual range (RVR)
  • Present weather
  • Cloud
    • Amount
    • Height of cloud base
    • [TCU/CB]
  • T i Td
  • Atmospheric pressure
  • Recent weather
  • Wind shear
  • State of the runway
  • Trend forecast
  • METAR (∀30min)
  • Surface wind
    • Direction
    • Speed
    • Gusts
  • Visibility
  • Runway visual range (RVR)
  • Present weather
  • Cloud
    • Amount
    • Height of cloud base
    • [TCU/CB]
  • T i Td
  • Atmospheric pressure
  • Recent weather
  • Wind shear
  • State of the runway
  • Trend forecast
  • Input
  • Forecaster
  • skill, experience, education
  • Available toolsand materials
  • Models
  • quality, interpretation, availability
  • Observation system
  • Climatology
  • Technical details
  • Criteria for weather elements, format
  • System supervision
  • Education system
  • Customer requirements

VERIFICATION

First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012

Croatia Control Ltd.

approach
Approach
  • Method similar to Austrocrontrol’s Mahringer (2008)
  • TAF, two basic principles
    • forecast for time periods
    • contains a range of forecast conditions
  • Each hour
  • Example for TS

TAF LDSP 230500Z 2306/2406 11010KT 9999 FEW050

TEMPO 2308/2320 RA

PROB30 TEMPO 2310/2406 TSRA FEW030CB BKN040

BECMG 2311/2313 18012KT

BECMG 2316/2318 VRB02KT=

First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012

Croatia Control Ltd.

slide5
Data
  • Forecasts for 6 airport in Croatia
    • Inland: Zagreb (LDZA), Osijek (LDOS)
    • Onshore: Pula (LDPL), Zadar (LDZD), Split (LDSP), Dubrovnik (LDDU)
  • Period 2009-2011
  • ~500,000 forecasted hours
  • Contingency tables for each airport

First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012

Croatia Control Ltd.

results
Results
  • Bias
  • Proportion correct (PC)

First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012

Croatia Control Ltd.

results1
Results
  • PC - better for inland airports and LDPL
    • Climatology
  • Bias similar results
    • LDPL smallest bias-local characteristics

First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012

Croatia Control Ltd.

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Verification has been initiated
  • Frequency of hours with TS ~1-1.5%
  • Better scores when forecast TS period is shorter
  • Less bias at inland airports due to pronounced daily and yearly maxima
  • Localfeatures
  • Future work (in progress):
    • Details for every miss and false alarm event
    • Synoptic situations
    • Lead time and duration

THANK YOU

jadran.jurkovic@crocontrol.hr, igor.kos@crocontrol.hr

Acknowledgement to Ms. Laurette Rako for helping with translation

First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012

Croatia Control Ltd.