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Weather Forecast Verification for Decision Support and Applications in Research

This research application delves into the significance of verifying weather forecasts to improve accuracy and provide valuable insights for model developers and forecasters. It covers types of forecasts, active research areas, and the benefits of using the R programming language.

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Weather Forecast Verification for Decision Support and Applications in Research

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  1. Weather Forecast Verification Using Matt Pocernich Research Application Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research September 29th, 2006

  2. Decision Support Societal Impacts Ausentes DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48h WRF-NMM 10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05 Ayudas Falsas alarmas Observado Pronóstico Facets of Research Applications Lab * Aviation Applications * Hydrometeorological Applications * National Security Applications • Weather Systems and Assessment • Forecast Verification and Statistics

  3. Why Verify? • Quantify forecast improvements • Identify forecast limitations • Compare models • Provide diagnostics to model developers and forecasters

  4. Types of forecasts • Binary or multiple categories forecasts • Point forecasts of continuous variables • Probabilistic forecasts • Chance of an event • Full probability distribution • Ensemble forecasts • Grid-base spatial forecasts

  5. Active area of research • Biased data - spatially, temporally, as a function of intensity • Spatial forecasts - issues are complicated by alignment, geometry , intensity and varying scale. • Spatial probabilistic ensemble forecasts • Developing scale statistics incorporating values of different users.

  6. Why R? • R is Open Source! • R is free • Runs on all operating systems • All code is visible • Over 1,000 packages donated. • Very large, active user base.

  7. Origins of R • Influenced by two existing languages: • Becker, Chambers & Wilks' S (ATT) • Sussman's Scheme • Initially written by Ross Ihaka and Robert Gentleman • R-0.49 23-Apr-1997 05:53 959k • R-2.4 October 5, 2006 ~ 14Meg

  8. The R Community • Developers • R Core Group (17 members), only 2 have left since 1997 • Major update in April/October (freeze dates, beta versions, bug tracking, ...) • Mailing lists • Help list ~ 100 messages/day, archived, searchable. • Packages – more than 1000 packages (9/2006)

  9. r-project.org • Contains everything • Source code • Documentation • Newsletter • Mailing list • Packages

  10. Exercise 1 (Open ex1.r script) • Exploring the R environment • Sources of help • Importing/ exporting data • Data frames and classes of objects • Simple plots

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