The AIACC Project Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change

1. The AIACC ProjectAssessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change Ravi Sharma United Nations Environment Programme-Global Environment Facility UNFCCC Workshop, Manila 29 April 2004

3. AIACC Background • GEF enabling project in climate change focal area • Geographic scope: Global • Project period: 2001-2005 • Implementing Agency: UNEP • Executing Agencies: START & TWAS • Proposal developed as collaboration between authors of IPCC Third Assessment Report, UNEP, START, and TWAS

4. AIACC Support

5. AIACC Objectives • Build scientific and technical capacity to support National Communications • Advance scientific understanding of climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation opportunities • Link science and policy communities for adaptation planning

6. AIACC Means for achieving objectives • Implement regional V&A assessments • “Learning-By-Doing” capacity building • Supplemented by mentoring, training, technical support, and networking • Engage stakeholders in the regional assessments • Work with National Communications teams • Regional workshops, publications, participation in scientific and policy workshops, working paper series, newsletter, website, synthesis

7. Regional V&A Assessments • Country owned • Proposed, led and implemented by developing country proponents • Endorsed by GEF National Focal Points • Focused on generating knowledge & capacity to support regional priorities for adaptation • Stakeholder participation • Each regional assessment engages stakeholders from a variety of institutions • Selected through international review of 150 proposals based on • Scientific merit, regional significance, policy significance

8. 24 Regional Assessments Implemented • V&A being assessed in 46 developing countries • More than 150 institutions from 50 developing and 12 developed countries participate. • More than 300 developing country scientists, stakeholders and students participate • Africa: 11 projects • Asia: 5 projects • Latin America: 5 projects • Small Island Developing States: 3 projects

9. Topics of Regional Assessments(Number of projects addressing each topic noted in parentheses) • Agriculture/food security (14) • Water resources (13) • Land use (7) • Rural livelihoods (5) • Coastal zones (5) • Biodiversity (3) • Aquatic ecosystems, fisheries (3) • Human health (2) • Extreme events (2) • Tourism (1)

10. AIACC Accomplishments (1) • Contributing to goals of UNFCCC • Established ties to National Communications • Working with appropriate agencies/persons in participating countries • Providing place specific V&A info for national communications • Will provide evaluations & recommendations for adaptation actions • Contributed to NAPA guidelines & workshops • Adding to UNFCCC V&A methods/tools database • Contributed to UNDP’s Adaptation Policy Framework • Contribute to UNEP projects

11. AIACC Accomplishments (2) • Advancing knowledge & methods • Participants published 5 papers in peer-reviewed journals • more papers in pipeline • AIACC Working Paper Series, a peer-reviewed electronic publication • Advanced methods for: • climate scenario generation • vulnerability indicators • livelihood approaches • integrated assessment modeling • benefit/cost analysis of adaptation

12. AIACC Accomplishments (3) • Building capacity • Capacity for scientific/technical V&A assessment • >200 scientists and >60 students in 46 developing countries have benefited from “learning-by-doing” and training activities • Capacity to engage with stakeholders and formulate adaptation strategies and policies • Have established networks that link science & stakeholder institutions from 62 countries • Stakeholder knowledge & awareness • Numerous local workshops with stakeholders • South-south capacity transfers • AIACC participants have conducted several successful south-south capacity transfer activities

13. AIACC Accomplishments (4) • Contributing to international science • IPCC 4th Assessment Report • Contributed to outline & plans for 4th Assessment Report • Anticipate invitation of many AIACC participants to be authors of IPCC AR4 • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment • 2 projects contributing to MEA reports • Global Environmental Change & Food Security (GECAFS) • AIACC projects contributing to this joint project of IHDP & IGBP • Presentations in international science meetings • Human Dimensions of Global Change Open Meeting, Montreal, Sept 2003 • UNEP/SEI Adaptation Research Workshop, New Delhi, Nov 2003 • Stanford University EMF Workshop on Climate Change Impacts & Integrated Assessment, Snowmass, Aug 2003 • Many others

14. Upcoming AIACC Activities • 3 Regional Workshops in 2004 • Continuation and completion of regional assessments by late 2004/early 2005 • Synthesis of AIACC regional studies in 2005

15. Regional Workshops in 2004 • Dates & venues • Dakar, 24-27 March • Buenos Aires, 24-27 August • Manila, 18-21 October • Participation • Regional assessment investigators • Local, regional & international stakeholders • Purposes • Share knowledge about regional activities, report progress • Explore how to make AIACC assessments as useful as possible to stakeholders • Plan for synthesis

16. Completion of Regional Assessments • Assessment activities will continue through 2004 • Finalizing vulnerability analyses & scenarios • Evaluating adaptation options • Engaging stakeholders in evaluation of adaptation options • Communicating progress, results to in-country National Communications teams • Dissemination of information • Regional assessments to be completed by late 2004 or early 2005 • Final reports from regional assessments by mid 2005

17. Synthesis of AIACC Project • Participants in AIACC will synthesize lessons that transcend contexts of individual assessments • Nature and causes of vulnerability • Effective adaptation and risk management strategies • Methods for engaging stakeholders in generating and communicating information for decision making • 2 workshops to be held in 2005 to facilitate • Synthesis book volumes to be completed by fall 2005

18. Follow-up to AIACC • AIACC partners planning activities to build upon successes of AIACC project • Encourage regional assessment teams to extend/apply their work individually • UNDP/GEF Small Grants Program • Projects for “piloting an operational approach to adaptation” • Develop new suite of global activities with partners

19. A new global project • Retain proven elements of AIACC but include innovations for greater impact: • Stronger policy implementation focus • Broaden scope beyond climate change to include other focal areas • Stakeholder engagement more integral • Training and technical support to be lead by developing country institutions, organized regionally • Provide for more uniformity of approach • Develop, test, evaluate and document a protocol for participatory, policy-focused assessment

20. Objectives of New Global Project • Enhance capacities to evaluate, plan and implement adaptation strategies related to UNFCCC and other MEAs • Advance knowledge needed to support adaptation decisions and implement actions • Develop regional “centers” to provide training & technical assistance in their regions • Strengthen networks for collaboration among stakeholders & scientists on global environmental problems