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Comparative Study of Fukushima and Chernobyl Disaster Consequences

Detailed comparison of Fukushima and Chernobyl disasters, including impact on populations, radioactive contamination, economic losses, and future consequences. Analysis by Dr. Ian Fairlie, Consultant on Radiation in the Environment.

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Comparative Study of Fukushima and Chernobyl Disaster Consequences

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  1. Fukushima and Chernobyl: comparative study Dr Ian FairlieConsultant on Radiation in the EnvironmentLondon, United Kingdom www.ianfairlie.org

  2. March 12: Explosion at Unit 1

  3. March 14 – Explosion at Unit 3

  4. plus 2 more explosions • On March 15, at 06.10 am, “explosive event” in fuel pond at unit 2, followed seconds later by “explosive event” in spent fuel pond at unit 4, then a fire • On March 16 at 05.45 am, a major explosion at Unit 4 • No TV video footage as explosions occurred early in the mornings

  5. Damage to Reactors 4,3,2,1

  6. Damage to Units 4,3

  7. http://www.youtube.com/v/nQ6lCR71Yik

  8. Tanks at Fukushima

  9. FUKUSHIMA - present situation • contamin water from cooling reactors to ground and ocean (well = 54 kBq/L Cs-137) = 600 x Japanese limit http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20140213_22.html • unresolved = how to reliably store v large volumes of contaminated water • radioactive soil wastes from decontamination • plight of ~140,000 evacuees • plight of ~12,000 workers exposed to <250 mSv • whereabouts of melted reactor cores? • spent fuels in precarious ponds?

  10. Fukushima: in a Nutshell over 140,000 people still evacuated: many permanently 10,000s cases of post-trauma stress disorder, depression, anxiety disorders from evacuations 2,000 deaths from evacuations from ill-health and suicides ~10,000 workers exposed, some up to 250 mSv ~5,000 fatal cancers over next 60 years (from UNSCEAR) plus similar (unquantified) strokes, CVS diseases as yet unquantified % of radiogenic thyroid cancers 8% of Japan (30,000 km2) including parts of Tokyo, contaminated >10 kBq/m2 economic losses - between $300 and $500 billion

  11. Chernobyl USSR 1986

  12. 137Cs contamination at Chernobyl and Fukushimatwo areas approximately same scale. The yellow/orange/red areas around Chernobyl correspond approximately to the green/yellow/red areas around Fukushima re contamination levels. Thanks to Dr R Wakeford

  13. Source Terms PBq = petabecquerel = 1015 Bq, ie 1 quadrillion Bq

  14. Collective Doses (after 80 years) source UNSCEAR 2013 page 60

  15. Populations exposed by Chernobyl average dose - mSv source: UNSCEAR 2008

  16. Areas contaminated >10 kBq/m2 Cs-137

  17. Other comparisons

  18. Future Consequences at Fukushima Using Chernobyl as a guide, we can expect

  19. George Santayanaphilosopher (1863 - 1952) governments unable to learn from history .... are condemned to repeat it

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