The Influence of Public Opinion on Lawmaking: Is it Reliable?

1. Chapters 6 – Participation I. Public Opinion – aggregate of attitudes and opinions of individuals on a significant issue. A. Survey research. Is public opinion a reliable guide for lawmaking? Problems: • Public knowledge of politics (next slide) • “________ Effect” – people will lie in accordance with socially acceptable answers. 3. Inconsistencies – e.g. lower taxes and more spending 4. Instability – different responses at different times 5. Salience – people concentrate on a _____________ of issues considered important in their own lives.

3. II. Political Socialization – process by which individuals obtain their beliefs about political values, beliefs and opinions. A. Sources of socialization: • Family – children usually take on their parents party identification. *If parents are different, which one? • School – • Civic norms: salute the flag, civics, “good citizenship” values • How to think – schools may teach students that truth evaluations based on faith or revelation, for instance, are unnecessary or inappropriate to knowing or understanding the world correctly (science gives us Truth; religion or faith is about values/opinions). Result? Students are socialized into a way of thinking that relativizes and relegates faith to the private/personal ________; secular authorities permitted in public forums. • Church – Traditionalism versus nonTraditionalism • Generational effects – historical events may shape political opinion. (great depression).

4. Media influence – tells us what to think about III. Ideology and Opinion • Can we predict political opinion based upon self-described ideologies? For the most part, YES. IV. Demographics and Opinion A. Gender • Women appear to be more __________ on issues involving use of force (i.e. war, death penalty, gun control). Women do not have significantly different opinions on non-force issues like abortion and domestic gender roles. • Gender Gap: Women = more likely to be Democratic (as of 80s). (Next Slide) B. Religion: Protestants and Catholics more likely to identify as moderates or conservatives than liberals; Jews more likely to identify as ___________. But Protestant Evangelicals are the most supportive voting block for Republicans.

7. IV. Individual Participation in Politics A. Securing the right to vote (suffrage) 1. Elimination of Property Qualifications (1800-1840) 2. Fifteenth Amendment (1870) – black male suffrage 3. Continued denial of voting rights (1870-1964) a. “____________ primary” – Democratic party primary elections in many southern counties in the early part of the twentieth century that excluded black people from voting.

8. b. Literacy tests – all were required to pass (which few people could) difficult tests involving complex legal documents. 4. Civil Rights Act/VRA (1964-65) – abolished unequal registration requirements 5. 24th amendment – abolished poll taxes (a price to get registered 6. 19th amendment – women suffrage (1920) 7. 26th amendment (1971) – eighteen year old suffrage or voting rights 8. National Voter Registration act (1993) – “Moter voter” – can register when you get your drivers license.

9. VI. Turnout (TO=#voting/#eligible) A. Turnout since 1960 (next slide) B. Why is it low? 1. Rational Voter (Anthony Downs) – is it really rational to vote? • your vote does not matter practically. It is never decisive over an election’s outcome. • the __________ of voting (registration, weather, driving, lines…) are to many much greater than the benefits (the probability that your vote will be decisive + any good feelings you get from it). Vote=Costs – Benefits + (intrinsic rewards) 2. Registration Burdens • registration typically occurs during times of ______ political interest. • 85% of registered voters turnout, while 50% of eligible voters vote. • Registration is supposed to prevent voter fraud

11. C. What causes it to increase or decrease? • Intense political competition • Political Alienation – when people feel that they are incapable of affecting the political process they are less likely to vote (this has happened since Watergate, 70s) • __________ – extremists or ideologues are more likely to vote (this is why candidates are typically more extreme sounding during primaries and more centrist sounding during general elections) • Education: Most important; Income; Age (all are positively related; next slide)

13. D. Explaining the Recent Decrease in Turnout in the U.S. • Despite the relaxation of voter registration requirements, voter turnout has still not improved significantly. Why? • Trust in Government and Efficacy Beliefs are down • Expansion of the electorate (18 year olds are less likely to vote) • ____________ of Party Strength and Organization • Voter Mobility Up E. Comparative Voting: The U.S. is near the bottom of voter turnout compared to other Western Democracies • Many include only registered voters • Many require voting

14. VII. Is Low Voter Turnout Bad? • George Will (Elitism) – Nonvoters are more likely to be of lower socioeconomic class (less informed/educated). Do we want the “ignorant” voting? Many of the founding fathers sympathized with this argument (fear of BOTH “tyranny of the king AND tyranny of the majority or masses). • What if nonvoting is a political statement being expressed in a democracy? 1. Expressing ________________ between candidates or general satisfaction with status quo. 2. Groups my abstain in order to send an electoral message to a party (“Stop taking us for granted”)