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On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME.

This academic study by Luc Reychler addresses the nuclear crisis in the Middle East, focusing on key countries like Israel and Iran, exploring policies, nuclear capabilities, and diplomatic relations. The analysis examines the historical context, strategic thinking, and external influences contributing to the crisis, advocating for diplomatic solutions over coercive tactics to ensure sustainable security in the region.

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On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME.

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  1. On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME. Luc Reychler Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  2. Academicdiplomacy • Adressessensitive issues • Questions the reliabilityandvalidity of ‘evidence’ • Tracescauses/drivers • Assessescostsand benefits • Researchesalternative approaches Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  3. Israël: the onlynuclear power in ME • Has approximately 200 warheads + delivery systems: air force / missile / submarine • No overtadmission policy • = not a member of the Non-Proliferation of NuclearweaponsTreaty ( NPT) Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  4. Policy of Israël • Pursuit of offensive dominance (conventional and nuclear) • Counter proliferation: preemptive strikes against nuclear real or alleged nuclear plants (1981 in Iraq and 2007 attack in Syria) • Builds antiballistic missile system • Uses nuclear weapons to deter aggression and to dissuade retaliation for its own military interventions Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  5. Iran:nuclear have not • Since 70’s – Shah wants nuclear energy capability • In 1981 the new governmentdecidesto continue nucleardevelopmentfor energy andmedicalpurposes • Increasingpressurefrom the West tobecomefullytransparentand stop enrichingnuclearmaterials • Iran invited IAEA • Insiststo continue low level enrichment up to 20% (permittedbyarticle IV NPT) • 5+1 negotiations Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  6. Nuclearplants Iran Nuclear plants in Germany Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  7. Big picture of a dangerous crisis Nuclear crisis Non adaptive strategic thinking Foreign interference: now and then Denial of root causes of conflicts and of political terrorism Verbal wars + absence of official diplomatic relations Coercive diplomacy and military intervention Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  8. Externalinterference in domesticaffairs • 1953: overthrow of Mossadegh + installation military governmentheadedbyShahPavlavi • 1979: first popularrevolutionand regime change in the ME: Khomeini • Iraq-Iran war ½ - 1 millionIranians dead • Diplomaticisolation / sanctions /military threats. It has been called the greatestthreat in the worldandrankedby the State Department on the ‘sponsors of terrorism list’. This list alsoincludes Cuba. Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  9. Denial of root causes conflicts-political terrorism • Internal political-, economic- and demographic problems • The use of double standards • Support of friendly authoritarian countries & crippling and destruction of unfriendly ones • The illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories (Palestine) and Syrian Golan heights + repression of the Palestinian people . Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  10. Coercive diplomacy and military interventions • Militarization of Iran’s neighborhood • In the 21st century, the West engaged in more than six wars/military interventions in the region: Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Libya, Palestine, Syria. • The civil war in Syria is a proxy war • The interventionsresulted in more turbulence, instabilityand human insecurity of the regionand the creation of weak fragile states Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  11. Military in ME IRAN Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  12. Verbal wars + absence of formal diplomatic relations • Scapegoating: Great Satan/Axis of Evil • Mutual threats to destroy each other • No official diplomatic relations for more than 30 years Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  13. Non-adaptive strategic thinking Offensive dominance Absolute security • The prime threat to security in the ME is ‘the West’ itself. • The greatest threat lies in the tendency to exaggerate the dangers it faces and to respond by counterproductive belligerence Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  14. Conclusion • A very dangerous crisis • Urgently needed • Reestablishment of official diplomatic relations • Replacement of coercive diplomacy and militarization by more effective diplomatic efforts to deal with conflicts in a timely and constructively way, and to prevent violence and build sustainable security for all. Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

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