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Bologna (Italy) 14-17 June 2005. WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE. “Procedures and guidance of appropriate zoning methodologies and promotion of their application”. CLIMATE ANALYSIS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION IN MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT.

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Bologna (Italy)

14-17June 2005

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

“Procedures and guidance of appropriate zoning methodologies and promotion of their application”

CLIMATE ANALYSIS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION IN MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT

R. Magno, A. Crisci, L. Genesio –Ibimet CNR

desertificaton

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

DESERTIFICATON

Desertification is “land degradation(*) in arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas due to various factors, including climatic variations and human activities” (UNCCD)

(*)Land degradation = loss of soil productivity

The aims of the UNCCD and the National Action Plans are:

  • to assess areas subjected to a desertification risk, adopting methodologies repeatable in several socio-geographical context
  • to provide tools for the public authority to prevent and mitigate such phenomenon, in order to ensure a sustainable land planning
  • monitoring the evolution of the land degradation processes
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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

DISMED and DESERTNET Projects

The international and inter-regional DISMED and DESERTNET-Interreg IIIB MEDOCC projects have been developed on the basis of the climatic analysis to identify the desertification sensitive areas, to produce thematic maps and to implement the approved methodology of ESAs (MEDALUS Project), that analyses the various components of the land degradation process

The large number of climatic, biological, pedological and socio-economical indicators that can be used in the ESAs (Environmental Sensitive Areas to desertification) methodology make it versatile and applicable to the various geographical context

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

THE CONTRIBUTION OF IBIMET-CNR

  • To suggest a proper methodology for the definition of the hydrological balance esteem, in terms of desertification and land degradation due to the climate factorsat different scale (from regional to local)
  • Implementation of the climate analysis methods at regional level (Mediterranean basin) and at local level (Tuscany) in order to develop a cartography of the desertification sensitivity (Aridity index)
  • Integration of the climate analysis with vegetation, soil and human pressure indices to define critical areas for the Tuscany region
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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

CLIMATIC ANALYSIS

Parameters: - Rainfall (daily and monthly data)

- Min, max and mean temperature (daily and monthly data)

- ETP Thornthwaite “corrected” (monthly data)

Period of analysis: - 1961/1990 (reference 30 years for IPCC-WMO)

- 1991/2000 (current period) (Tuscany)

Time scale: - Year

- Season

- Month

Spatialization of meteorological data: analysis of several methods

Final products: - Maps of AI (Aridity Index)

- Percentage of AI variation (Tuscany)

- SPI Standardized Precipitation Index (Tuscany)

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

METEOROLOGICAL INDICATORS MONITORING

Hence the need to have widespread, accurate and continuous monitoring of temperature, rainfall and all phenomena related to them.

REMOTE SENSING OBSERVATIONS

(homogeneous distribution)

MONITORING

METEOROLOGICAL GAUGES DATA

(scattered and not continuous)

but

- GEOSTATISTICS methods of climatic parameters estimation

- Data availability on a long period

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

Spatialization of climatic data: RMSE analysis

Monthly min temperature

Monthly max temperature

Thermometric data: substantially affected by geographic characteristics of the area

Monthly rainfall

Rainfall data: random properties of spatial variability

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360 + 120 FILES

RAINFALL

PERIOD 1961-90 1991-00

Available stations

12*30 + 12*10 RASTER MAPS

COKRIGING

RAINFALL

ARIDITY INDEX

CLIMATIC DATA SPATIALIZATION

ETP

12*30 + 12*10 RASTER MAPS

2 MAPS (61-90; 91-00)

Penman

Tthornthwaite

TEMPERATURE

ETP Thornthwaite

PERIOD 1961-90 1991-00

Available stations

TEMP.

360 + 120 FILES

12*30 + 12*10 RASTER MAPS

CLIMATIC DATABASE

PENMAN CORRECTION

Underestimate in particularly dry areas

MULTIREGRESSIVE + KRIGING OF RESIDUALS

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

Mean Yearly Temperature: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

Mean Yearly Precipitation: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

Mean Yearly Evapotranspiration: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

Mean Yearly Aridity Index: 1961-1990 period for the Mediterranean area

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

SAME APPROACH - DIFFERENT SCALE

Using DISMED approach, DESERTNET Project emphasize the dynamic feature of the climate analysis

Following the ESAs methodology, other specific aspects of desertification process on the Tuscany region are taken in to account (vegetation, soil, land management, human pressure)

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

DESERTNET Project: the TUSCANY case

THE ARIDITY INDEX ANALYSIS

Aridity can affect a region during a specific period, season or even all over the year

For a good land management is important to know when the critical period occurs

YEAR

TIME SCALE

SEASON

The annual analysis of more then 100 gauges in Tuscany did not show any areas affected by the aridity.

But in fact, a large part of the region has turned out to be semi-arid or sub-humid dry in spring and summer seasons.

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

ANNUAL ARIDITY INDEX

At the annual level the low ETP and the autumn and winter rainfall mitigate the aridity

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SPRING ARIDITY INDEX

SUMMER ARIDITY INDEX

At the seasonal level, particularly in spring and summer periods, a large portion of Tuscany suffers from a strong aridity (0.2-0.5 is the range of semi-arid zones in the UNEP classification)

This phenomenon can greatly affect the agricultural activities and the yield production

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

DINAMIC ANALYSIS OF ARIDITY INDEX

Negative value = decreasing of aridity in the last 10 years

Positive value = increasing of aridity in the last 10 years

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

DROUGHT IN TUSCANY: the SPI

Agricultural drought events

Not unusual during hottest season

In the last decade increase in winter

Winter drought events are not limited in the arid areas, but are diffused in most of the Tuscany region

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

WINTER SPI

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

SPI MAPS

% of drought events frequency

% of drought events frequency variation

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ESAI - Environmental Sensitive Areas Index

ESAI = (CQI * SQI * VQI * MQI * HPI)1/5

CQI

MQI

VQI

HPI

SQI

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VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION: OVERLAP OF CRITICAL AREAS

Sibolla lake

Portata del fiume Arno a Subbiano

Turist density - year 2000

Annual net balance of CO2

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

ESAI

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

CQI - Climatic Quality Index

CQI = (AI61-90 * % AI61-00 Var.* Drought Freq.61-90 * % Drought Freq 00-61 Var. )1/4

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VQI - Vegetation Quality Index

Rischio strutturale di incendio

Copertura da NDVI (TM)

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

VQI = (Erosion protection * Drought resistance * Land cover * Fire risk)1/4

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

MQI - Management Quality Index

MQI = (Protection policies * Land management)1/2

Environmental policy = (National parks * Regional parks * Directive Habitat 92/43-Bioitaly)1/3

Land management = ((var % SAU/municipal area) * (SAU bio/SAU) * (SAU irrigated/SAU) * (grass-pasture/SAU) * (UBA/SAU))1/5

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HPI – Human Pressure Index

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

HPI = (Population density 2001 * % ofpopulation density variation2001-1961 * Tourist density2001 * % Tourist density variation2001-1993)1/4

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WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

Bologna (Italy) 14-17June 2005

CONCLUSIONS

  • The results of the two DISMED and DESERTNET Project show that the climate analysis and its dynamic variation are of great importance for defining the desertification vulnerability at different scales
  • Sensitive areas are affected by a various critical factors and elements that determine the loss of productivity of the soil; but not necessarily the same level of vulnerability is due to the overlap of the same critical factors
  • Nevertheless in areas affected by negative climate conditions human pressure accelerate land degradation processes
  • Is possible to compare the map of desertification vulnerability with maps of other types of environmental problems