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Machinery and Equipment and PPPs

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  1. 3rd Technical Advisory Group Meeting Machinery and Equipment and PPPs Richard Dibley

  2. Introduction ….relevant extensive personal experience working on Eurostat capital goods surveys…. • Since 1980s: Collection of the data for the UK surveys • 2000 – 2004: Management of the EG surveys in all EU countries (in conjunction with construction) • Since 2004: Responsibility for the 37 countries participating in the Eurostat programme • 2005 – 2006: Worked on the ICP program for the UK data

  3. Machinery and Equipmentand PPPs:Survey 2011 3

  4. Topics to covered ….following by discussion…. • Background • Objectives and approach • Methodology and work proposals • Pilot survey • The structure and content of the core product list • Pilot survey: arrangements • Future activities • Summary

  5. ….these bodies have co-operated for many years…. The ICP program 2005 - 2006 Eurostat surveys Work and experience from other organisations, principally OECD Background ….sources and experience …. 5

  6. Overall objectives …..principally to development a core product list… • To prepare a core list of products to be used for the regions • To achieve a list that will reflect products available in all regions • To include representative and identical products across all regions • To prepare associated data recording and analysis methods …..regions will have their own lists for their countries…..

  7. The ICP survey: 2005 - 2006 ….conclusion: difficult for analysis and difficult to compare prices…. ….some problems…. • General specifications - holistic • Difficult to price – too vague • Skewed towards some BHs • List biased towards N. American makes and models • Two BHs were omitted

  8. Approach: 2010 – 2011 ….to learn from the lessons from the past……. • To move towards the Eurostat approach • To include at least some specific identical and representative products • To reflect global markets and products • To integrate the products, data collection and analysis

  9. ….a significant trend in the last few years……. Increasing penetration of global markets by multi-national companies Increasing availability of products internationally This will facilitate finding identical products across regions Approach: comments 9

  10. Methodology • Study of previous survey results • Evaluate other lists and work • Research new products, as appropriate • Develop the structure of the list • Discuss and finalise the list • Design of specification sheets • Plan analysis methods …..to end up with a core product list ready for the main survey in mid-2011…

  11. Proposals ….the main survey will take place in mid-2011….. • Start with the Eurostat list for the 2009 survey • Include results for the ICP 2005 – 2006 as appropriate • The list will be divided between generic and specific products • There should be an initial pilot survey • Data recording and analysis methods will be adapted from Eurostat

  12. The pilot survey ….is the emphasis of the presentation today…. 12

  13. ….the first step is the pilot survey…. To test the overall approach To determine which generic products and items are submitted To determine the extent to which specific products are found To determine the extent to which makes and models not included in the initial list (equivalent) are submitted Pilot survey: objectives (1) ….important to carry out initial work before the main survey…. 13

  14. ….the first step is the pilot survey…. To ensure that the final list reflects global makes and models To remove bias from initial list To ensure that the final list is balanced across the regions Pilot survey: objectives (2) ….important to carry out initial work before the main survey…. 14

  15. ….implementation - later in 2010…. Carry out the pilot survey in two regions Finalise draft core product list To decide about the efficacy of the proposed method Implementation Pilot survey: comments ….pilot survey is the next stage of the work….. 15

  16. ….and reflect across regions……. A list including all 17 BHs There will be more or less an equally number of products in each BH A combination of specific and generic products and items The products included are based on the list of the ICP survey and the Eurostat 2009 list The core product list ……to aim to select representative and identical products across all BHs….. 16

  17. ….the list is split into products and items… A product defines a group of specific pieces of machinery or equipment Products are defined in the classification of BHs For our purposes products are sold in commercial markets as opposed as in consumer markets An item is a sub-division and a variation of a product (e.g. a particular model and/or make of a product) Products and items 17

  18. ….but constrained by the classification…. Based on CPA 1996 Sometimes difficult to find suitable products in some BHs Out-of-date The technology has moved on Practical problems - some products cannot be realistically priced, e.g. planes Classification ….the products defined within in each BH….. 18

  19. ….starting point for the core product list…. The product list for the 2005 – 2006 ICP survey The 2009 Eurostat list Other documents, including classification lists Sources ….list based on existing work….. 19

  20. The core product list: summary

  21. ….at this stage structure more important than specific products… All 17 BHs are included Approximately the same number products for each BH (at the moment) Divided by generic and specific Sub-divided into products and items Comments on the core product list …..initial proposals…. 21

  22. ….found in various BHs…. One: where generic products/items have their own special specifications Two: where generic products/items are related to the specific products/items Generic products/items Two types, as below: 22

  23. The core product list: example (1)

  24. ….found in some other BHs………. BH I: Fabricated metal products Split by generic (unspecified) and specified products (makes and models) Items under products, as appropriate Generic products have special specifications No specific makes/models for these products Example (1): explanation ..where generic items have special specifications.. 24

  25. The core product list: example (2)

  26. ….where generic products/items are related to special products………. BH II: Engines and turbines Split by generic (unspecified) and specified products (makes and models) Items under products, as appropriate Generic products/items have no special specifications Example (2): explanation ….similar as for the other BHs………. 26

  27. Further activities: the core product list ….to finalise the list for the pilot survey…. ….discussion and agreement…. • Types of products in each BH • Split of generic and specific products • Items under each product • Research new products (if any) • Preparation of specification sheets

  28. ….need current makes and models…. Availability of products Ensure makes are current Ensure models are current Update all specifications The core list: checking ..as near as possible to the start of the fieldwork…. NB: • Product life cycles • Particular attention to BH XI Computers and BH XVII Software 28

  29. ….the next steps…. Pilot survey: arrangements • Preparation of the final specification sheets • Decisions regarding data collection • Development of the methods and tools for analysis • Timing

  30. Pilot survey: fieldwork ….test the product list and the methodology…. • Two contrasting regions: • One “difficult”, e.g. Africa • One “different”, e.g. Asia • Try to research ALL products and items, including generic and specific • Propose any new products

  31. Pilot survey: analysis ….to refine the list……. • Evaluation of the results • Examine generic products/items • Examine specific products/items • Analysis of equivalent products submitted in specific positions • Form groups/splits from products/items that worked • Incorporate any new products/items • Evaluate the overall structure of the list

  32. Post-pilot survey activities ….the target will be to finish the core product list for the main survey…. • Combine generic and specific products/items • Delete any products/items • Research current products and items • Finalise the structure of the list • Checking the list • Finalise specification sheets/data collection methods • Finalise analysis procedures and tools needed

  33. ….main fieldwork will take place in mid-2011 Further work on the core product list Agree the structure and content of the list Finalise the list Finalise plans for the pilot survey Implement the pilot survey Analyse results Preparation of the core product list for the main survey Summary 33

  34. …..thank you very much…..