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Space Radiation Effects on Aircraft

Space Radiation Effects on Aircraft. European Space Weather Week: ESWW-II 17 November 2005. Captain Bryn Jones SolarMetrics Limited. Overview. Space Radiation Environment Recent Storm Impacts Next Generation Air & Space Transportation Integrating Space Weather into Operations Summary.

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Space Radiation Effects on Aircraft

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  1. Space Radiation Effects on Aircraft European Space Weather Week: ESWW-II 17 November 2005 Captain Bryn Jones SolarMetrics Limited

  2. Overview • Space Radiation Environment • Recent Storm Impacts • Next Generation Air & Space Transportation • Integrating Space Weather into Operations • Summary

  3. SEPs CMEs Geomagnetic Storms GCRs

  4. Space Radiation Environment Background Cosmic Radiation Atmospheric Radiation at Earth Supernovae(+ other energetic astrophysical events) Galactic Cosmic Rays Cause and Effect Space Weather Events Warning time Duration Increased Atmospheric Radiation Solar min. 11-year cycle Solar Cycle Solar Cosmic Rays 4-12 hours Solar max. 10-30 mins Coronal Mass Ejection Decreased Atmospheric Radiation Forbush Decrease 2-10 days Hours - days 1-6 days 10-30 mins HF Communication Degradation Solar Flare 1-3 days 1-3 days Magnetic Storm 1-3 days 1-3 days Coronal Hole(high speed solar wind) Mins. to hours Navigation Degradation X-rays No time

  5. Space Radiation Environment - Events • Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) • Constant background • Modulated by Space Weather (11-year solar cycle, Coronal Mass Ejections (Forbush Decrease) etc.) • GCRs at Earth • Shielded by Earth’s magnetic field • High dose at high latitudes, low dose at low latitudes • Variation by a factor of ~2 • Atmosphere provides a further barrier • Cascade of secondary particles reaches Max Dose Rate at 60,000 ft • From 10,000 to 60,000 ft, dose rates double every ~10,000 ft

  6. Space Radiation Environment - Events Solar Cycle • Cyclic activity – 27-day, 11-year, 22-year, 88-year………. • Solar Cycle causes cosmic radiation dose rates to vary by a factor of ~2 • High doses during Solar Min., Low doses during Solar Max.

  7. Space Radiation Environment - Events • Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) • Massive explosion on the surface of the Sun that ejects plasma into space • Causes: • Forbush Decrease (a decrease in the background cosmic radiation dose) • warning time: hours to days • Solar Cosmic Ray event • only a small fraction of CMEs actually generate SCRs • warning time: 10 – 30 minutes • Geomagnetic Storms at Earth • warning time: 1-3 days

  8. Space Radiation Environment - Events • Solar Flares • Bright explosion on the surface of the Sun • Causes: • X-ray burst • no warning time! • Solar Cosmic Ray event • warning time: 10-30 minutes

  9. Space Radiation Environment - Events • Coronal Holes – High Speed Solar Wind Stream • High speed solar wind streams originate at coronal holes • Causes: • These events often generate geomagnetic storms when they are directed toward Earth • warning time: 1-3 day

  10. Space Radiation Environment – Cause Ionospheric Variations • Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) Events • Cause: Solar Cosmic Rays • Absorption of radio waves over the polar caps • Typically last for two to three days. • X-ray Absorption Events • Cause: Solar X-rays • Increased absorption of radio waves on sun-side • Duration is a few minutes to several hours

  11. Space Radiation Environment – Cause Radiation Environment - Increases • Solar Cosmic Ray (SCR) Events • Ground Level Event (GLE) if increase is observed by ground level monitors • GLEs occur on average once per year (65 between 1942 and 2004) • More frequent during solar maximum, less likely near solar minimum • GLEs typically last 6 to 12 hours, but peak within 1 to 3 hours • Very sensitive to altitude and latitude variations • Anisotropy – Many SEP events are anisotropic, which means that increases vary around the globe depending on location

  12. Space Radiation Environment – Cause Radiation Environment - Decreases • Forbush Decreases • Up to a 30% decrease in the dose rate caused by CMEs or high-speed solar wind streams blocking access of GCRs to the Earth • High latitudes are effected more than low latitudes • Altitude reductions may be less? • Lasts on average for 1-14 days

  13. Space Radiation Environment - Effects Future Air Transport Business Jets, Airlines Commercial Airlines Radiation Damage to Avionics Avionics • Single Event Upsets (SEU), Multiple Bit Upsets (MBU) • 256K SRAM computer withdrawn • 1 Upset per 200 flying hours in A/P • 100MB SRAM => Upsets/2 hrs, 40,000ft • 1GB SRAM => 1 Upset/minute (SPE 1989) • Hardware failures • “More Electric” aircraft, UAVs

  14. Space Radiation Environment - Effects Future Air Transport Business Jets, Airlines Commercial Airlines Radiation Damage to Humans Humans • Limit Exposure to Radiation • - Galactic Cosmic Rays • - Solar Particle Events • - Increase radiation at altitude • SPE 1989 - 2mSv • SPE 1956 - 10mSv • Higher, Longer – Over-The-Pole • Commercial Space Flights Next Generation ? Air Transport

  15. Space Radiation Environment - Effects Satellite Navigation • Cause: Magnetic storm, solar cosmic ray event • Single frequency errors up ~20 m in horizontal and vertical directions • Differential GPS reduces error to 1-2 m near reference station, but error increases with distance from station

  16. Recent Storm Impacts Operational Impacts • Complete or significant loss of comms • Delays, re-routes or diversions on Polar Routes • Air Traffic Control imposed flow restrictions over Northern Canadian routes and NAT system • GPS problems • Increase in fuel costs, loss of Cargo revenue

  17. Recent Storm Impacts FAA’s Wide-Area Augmentation Systems (WAAS) The WAAS system was seriously impacted during the Halloween Storms. For a 15-hour period on October 29 and an11-hour interval on October 30, the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit, as defined by the FAA’s Lateral Navigation Vertical Navigation (LNAV/VNAV) to be no more that 50 meters, was exceeded. That translated into commercial aircraft being unable to use the WAAS for precision approaches.

  18. Recent Storm Impacts Radiation Impacts - Halloween 2003 FAA Solar Radiation Alert issued for the following timeframes: StartEndDuration 10/28 1208 UT 10/29 0603 UT 17h 55min 10/29 2123 UT 10/30 1158 UT 14h 35min 11/02 1808 UT 11/02 2343 UT 05h 35min Was it correct? Significant Commercial Impact

  19. Next Generation Air & Space Transportation

  20. The Next Generation Air Transportation System • Joint Planning and Development Office • “Where new ideas are welcome”

  21. NGATS 2025 Concept Operating Principles • “It’s about the users…” • System-wide transformation • Prognostic approach to safety assessment • Globally harmonized • Environmentally compatible to foster continued growth Key Capabilities • Net-Enabled Information Access • Performance-Based Services • Weather-Assimilated Decision Making • Layered, Adaptive Security • Broad-Area Precision Navigation • Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations • “Equivalent Visual” Operations • “Super Density” Operations

  22. Integrating Space Weather into Operations – Policy: Research AMS_SMX Policy Study A flight is about to take off from NY to Hong Kong. NOAA SEC has recently issued an alert for a strong solar radiation storm. • What does the pilot do? • What does the airline do? • What does the air traffic controller do?

  23. Integrating Space Weather into Operations – Policy: Implementation AMS_SMX Policy Study Our understanding of space weather impacts & risks on the safety & efficiency of airline operations is growing. • What should FAA, CAA, EuroControl do? • What should IATA & ICAO do? • What should the airlines do? • What should you do?

  24. Integrating Space Weather into Operations – Policy: Risk Analysis QDOS Compact Monitor

  25. Integrating Space Weather into Operations – Policy: Modelling Components of QARM • Models of the Cosmic ray: • Badhwar & O’Neill model, MSU model, QinetiQ model • Solar energetic protons • From GLE neutron monitor data plus GOES spacecraft • Rigidity cut-off code • MAGNETOCOSMICS/GEANT4 • Response Matrices of atmosphere to energetic particle • Atmosphere Model: MSES90, NRLMSES2001 • Particle Transport codes: MCNPX, FLUKA, GEANT4

  26. Integrating Space Weather into Operations – Policy: Services SW Information & Alerting System S.M.A.R.T. Model + QinetiQ QARM Space Weather Re-planning: Optimum Flight Levels (Doses v Ops) Terrestrial Weather Aircrew Aircraft Position GLMs ATC & Other sources Detectors Airline Airline Ops/Dispatchers

  27. Summary Avionics Communications Hazard to Humans Satellite Navigation - Air Traffic Management (ATM) R I S K Technological Development

  28. Summary As our understanding of SW impacts on the airlines increases, many people are realising the need for a policy framework. Emerging issues involve: • Standardization • Legislation • Education • Better information and forecasts • Better dissemination of products • Cost/benefit analysis We must also consider how these fit within current international frameworks for aviation safety & operations

  29. Space Radiation Effects on Aircraft Questions?

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