Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transport;IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report Steven Plotkin Argonne National Laboratory Mumbai and Kolkata, India October 9, 2007
Summary • Transport = 23% of world energy-related GHG emissions & growing faster than other end-use sectors …….so must be a critical part of mitigation strategy. • Emissions growth is slowing in developed world, but rapid motorization in developing nations is driving worldwide growth in emissions (2002-2030 = 80%!). • Transport’s tie to oil adds to importance of mitigation! • Advanced vehicle technology, low carbon fuels, urban planning, shifting to more efficient modes, and appropriate pricing all have crucial roles to play in mitigation. • “Best” strategy will depend on local conditions.
Transport energy and GHG emissions will grow rapidly, especially in the developing world. • Energy and GHG emissions growth: 1-2%/yr in developed world, 3-5%/yr in developing world….India at nearly 5%/yr, China 6% • 96% of transport energy comes from oil • Road vehicles = three quarters of total By 2030, transport GHG emissions will grow by 80% compared to 2002 if current trends continue.
If oil becomes scarce, alternative fuels can profoundly affect GHG emissions. • The obvious replacement fuels will come from unconventional oil, coal, and natural gas (GTL) higher greenhouse emissions • Biofuels can play a major role, with positive GHG emissions effects….but must avoid negative impacts on the environment and on food supplies • And some current biofuels are neither cost-effective nor especially climate-friendly • Incentives to much greater efficiency generally will have positive effects, but watch the costs
Development and rising income will bring motorization, but alternative development pathways can yield radically different outcomes. Emphasis on private vehicles, unplanned development Strong public transport, planned urban development
Reducing auto dependence requiresattention to public transport, biking and walking; careful urban planning; and many other measures • Can achieve fewer cars plus less driving per car – U.S., 13,000 miles/yr; Europe, 8,000 miles per year; Japan, 6,000 miles/yr • Geography is important, but policy plays a major role: • Are cities designed for cars or for people? • Strength of public transport, design for walking and biking • Parking policies/fuel taxes/registration taxes/etc • Examples of success are limited but encouraging • Bus rapid transit in Curitiba, Bogota, Quito • Chinese cities combining pedestrian areas, restricted bus lanes, bikeways • London’s pricing experiment is being replicated
Light-duty vehicles = 45% of transport emissions; new LDV fuel economy could rise by 50-100% by the late 2020s if…… • Advanced technology is used • low loads – 0.22 aero drag coefficient, 0.006 tire rolling resistance, 20% weight reduction, super-efficient accessories • Downsized, high efficiency drivetrain – DI gasoline or diesel, hybridization, advanced transmissions, etc. • The right policies are implemented – fuel economy standards? • Appropriate timing, recognizing manufacturer schedules • Stringency based on weighing technology, cost, urgency • Improved structure to maximize fairness, avoid distortions • We find a way to stop the “horsepower wars” • Fuel economy is traded off against power, size, luxury
A key condition will be resisting trends to faster, heavier, more luxurious cars….. Attribute trends What could have happened What did happen In the U.S., fuel economy improvement potential has been lost to more power, luxury, and size…and the same thing is happening in Europe and elsewhere.
Multiple additional policies to restrain light vehicle energy use and GHG emissions • Registration and annual fees based on efficiency, power, engine size, etc. • Fuel taxes to restrain demand, account for externalities • Feebate systems to reward efficient vehicles, penalize inefficient ones • Parking “cash back” and taxes/restrictions • Road pricing and central city access fees • Other Transport Demand Management strategies • Ecodriving
Longer-term, hydrogen fuel cells, plug-in hybrids and advanced biofuels are promising but all require major advances, esp. in reducing costs. • Benefits depend on details of the full fuel cycle – how the hydrogen is produced, how the electricity is generated. • With current biofuels, ethanol from sugar cane has strongest emission reduction; ethanol from corn has modest reductions, potential for food/fuel conflicts • Biofuels from cellulosic materials appear most promising, but require substantial R&D progress • Strong R&D support is crucial for hydrogen fuel cells and batteries for plug-in hybrids
Freight transport is often ignored in analyses, but it’s 35% of transport emissions and growing fast! • Continuing shift to faster, more energy-intensive modes • Freight trucks now dominate energy use and GHG emissions; air freight is small but growing fast • Technology improvement is crucial: hybridization for urban delivery vehicles, improved diesels for all, better aerodynamics for highway trucks • Improved logistics and multi-modal deliveries – combination of overcoming institutional barriers, computerizing networks
Technologies and policies exist for air travel, shipping, and other modes • AIR: Blended wing bodies, laminar flow control, advanced turbofan engines; advanced traffic controls • SHIPPING: Sails and solar panels, advanced hydrodynamic hulls, biofuels
GHG reduction strategies for the transport sector are complex, and many are intensely local • This presentation only scrapes the surface of the issue. • India and other South Asian nations can use a host of technology solutions available to all nations, but a crucial part of the solution must lie in choices about how to shape their cities and provide transport services to all their citizens. • We recognize that reducing GHG emissions may take a secondary place to issues such as relieving congestion, providing transport services to the poor, reducing air pollution, etc….but carefully planned solutions can address both sets of issues.