2003 State of the California ISO Markets Report Federal Energy Regulatory Commission May 5, 2004 Anjali Sheffrin, Ph.D. Director, Market Analysis California ISO. Overview of Control Area for 2003. COI. 10.5 million households served in PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E
Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.
2003 State of the California ISO Markets ReportFederal Energy Regulatory CommissionMay 5, 2004Anjali Sheffrin, Ph.D.Director, Market AnalysisCalifornia ISO
*Integrated hourly peak
Average load up 1% in 2003, but second half of year up 3.7% due weather and a recovering economy
Energy prices increased due to higher natural gas prices
Real-time prices averaged $70/MWh (inc dispatches). Utility scheduled load within 1-2 % of actual load resulting in low reliance on real-time imbalance market
Ancillary reserve service prices averaged $9.85/MWh, increase of 38% ; some instances of bid insufficiency
Increases in real-time intrazonal congestion
Long outages at Vincent and Sylmar substations, and insufficient transmission at Miguel due to new generation additions in Northern Mexico and ArizonaMarket Highlights for 2003
Total wholesale cost of serving load $12.1 Billion in 2003, v. $10.1 Billion in 2002; Increase in costs affected by natural gas pricesWholesale Energy and Ancillary Service Costs, 1998-2003
All-in price was $55/MWh in 2003 compared to $45/MWh in 2002; increase due largely to increase in gas pricesAll-In Price Index includes estimated bilateral , real-time,A/S 2002-2003
Real-time incremental energy prices increased from 2002, following natural gas prices; higher in Southern Calif.
Monthly Averages, 2002-03
Number of Hours:
Load Duration Curves, 2001-2003
Generating Capacity Net Additions
Price-to-cost markups 7% in NP15, 8% in SP15
Short-Term Markup Indices: SP15 (top) and NP15 (bottom)
suppliers pivotal in fewer than 22 hours in the year
Residual Supply Index = Total Supply – Largest Supplier
RSI_Duration Curve 1999 - 2003_
SP15 Combustion Turbine Net Revenue and Cost
CC Net Revenue
CT Net Revenue
Net Revenue Analysis, 2002 and 2003- Profits from ISO spot markets for a new typical combined cycle generation unit fell 30 percent in 2003, combustion turbine unit profits stable*- A significant portion of fixed cost recovery would be from long-term bilateral contract.
*Net revenue analysis based on units selling solely into ISO imbalance energy and ancillary service markets.
Reduced ancillary service capacity resulted in higher prices and increased bid insufficiency in 2003 compared to 2002Monthly Weighted Average Ancillary Service Prices, 2002-2003
Real-time intrazonal congestion surged in August as new generation came online in Northern Mexico and Arizona, and overwhelmed local transmission facilities2003 Monthly Total Intrazonal Congestion Costs