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Experimental Probability

Experimental Probability. 9.2. Pre-Algebra. Warm Up. Use the table to find the probability of each event. 1. A or B occurring 2. C not occurring 3. A, D, or E occurring. 0.494. 0.742. 0.588. Learn to estimate probability using experimental methods . Vocabulary.

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Experimental Probability

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  1. Experimental Probability 9.2 Pre-Algebra

  2. Warm Up Use the table to find the probability of each event. 1.A or B occurring 2. C not occurring 3. A, D, or E occurring 0.494 0.742 0.588

  3. Learn to estimate probability using experimental methods.

  4. Vocabulary experimental probability

  5. In experimental probability, the likelihood of an event is estimated by repeating an experiment many times and observing the number of times the event happens. That number is divided by the total number of trials. The more the experiment is repeated, the more accurate the estimate is likely to be. number of times the event occurs total number of trials probability 

  6. 186 number of spins that landed on 2 = total number of spins 500 Example: Estimating the Probability of an Event A. The table shows the results of 500 spins of a spinner. Estimate the probability of the spinner landing on 2. probability  The probability of landing on 2 is about 0.372, or 37.2%.

  7. number of Canadian license plates 21 = total number of license plates 60 Example: Estimating the Probability of an Event B. A customs officer at the New York–Canada border noticed that of the 60 cars that he saw, 28 had New York license plates, 21 had Canadian license plates, and 11 had other license plates. Estimate the probability that a car will have Canadian license plates. probability  = 0.35 The probability that a car will have Canadian license plates is about 0.35, or 35%.

  8. 523 1000 Try This A. Jeff tosses a quarter 1000 times and finds that it lands heads 523 times. What is the probability that the next toss will land heads? Tails? = 0.523 P(heads) = P(heads) + P(tails) = 1 The probabilities must equal 1. 0.523 + P(tails) = 1 P(tails) = 0.477

  9. number of plasma displays 13 = = total number of TVs 13 + 37 1350 Try This B. Josie sells TVs. On Monday she sold 13 plasma displays and 37 tube TVs. What is the probability that the first TV sold on Tuesday will be a plasma display? A tube TV? probability ≈ P(plasma) = 0.26 P(plasma) + P(tube) = 1 0.26 + P(tube) = 1 P(tube) = 0.74

  10. Example: Application Use the table to compare the probability that the Huskies will win their next game with the probability that the Knights will win their next game.

  11. number of wins probability  total number of games 79 probability for a Huskies win   0.572 138 90 probability for a Knights win   0.616 146 Example Continued The Knights are more likely to win their next game than the Huskies.

  12. Try This Use the table to compare the probability that the Huskies will win their next game with the probability that the Cougars will win their next game.

  13. number of wins probability  total number of games 79 probability for a Huskies win   0.572 138 85 probability for a Cougars win   0.567 150 Try This Continued The Huskies are more likely to win their next game than the Cougars.

  14. Lesson Quiz: Part 1 1. Of 425, 234 seniors were enrolled in a math course. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected senior is enrolled in a math course. 2. Mason made a hit 34 out of his last 125 times at bat. Estimate the probability that he will make a hit his next time at bat. 0.55, or 55% 0.27, or 27%

  15. Lesson Quiz: Part 2 3. Christina polled 176 students about their favorite ice cream flavor. 63 students’ favorite flavor is vanilla and 40 students’ favorite flavor is strawberry. Compare the probability of a student’s liking vanilla to a student’s liking strawberry. about 36% to about 23%

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