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Changes in Operating Duty & Impact on RAM. Bob Steele. March 7, 2007. Industry Changes. Significant Changes in Market over past 10 to 15 Years Changes in Anticipated Demand Environmental Concerns Fuel Prices Others…

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industry changes
Industry Changes
  • Significant Changes in Market over past 10 to 15 Years
    • Changes in Anticipated Demand
    • Environmental Concerns
    • Fuel Prices
    • Others…
  • Review How These Changes Have Impacted… Operating Profile and RAM (Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability)
    • Based Upon Data From ORAP
    • Review Generic Aero-derivative Market Data (Not Specific to GE Engines)
base orap
Base ORAP®
  • ORAP - Operational Reliability Analysis Program
  • Service provided to
    • Owner/Operators
    • Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
  • Monitors Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM)
    • Adheres to Industry Standards: IEEE Std. 762 and ISO 3977
  • Gas Turbine, Steam Turbine and All Related Plant Equipment
base orap1
Base ORAP®
  • Proprietary Database
    • Contains 20,000 Unit Years of Operating Information from 2,000 Units Around the World
    • Operating, Maintenance, and Failure Information on Total Plant Equipment
  • Proprietary Equipment Breakdown Structure (EBS)
    • Common Coding Structure for Equipment and Components Across Different Fleets and OEMs
    • Equipment Hierarchy
      • Major System Down to Individual Components
base orap participation includes

P&W

Power

Systems

Steam

Turbine

OEMs

ALSTOM

General

Electric

Rolls-Royce

Siemens

Base ORAP® Participation Includes

FT8

FT4

501

AVON

TRENT

RB211

LM6000 /DLE

LM5000

LM2500 /DLE

LM1600

LM500

MS5001

MS6001B-FA

MS7001B-FA

MS9001B-FA

W251

W501AA-FD

V84.2

V84.3A

V94.2

Size:

2 MW to

>700 MW

GT11D

GT11N-N2

GT13-E2

GT8B-C

GT9

GT24

GT26

FOSSIL ST

Covers Simple & Combined Cycle Arrangements, Including Steam Cycle

change in operating profile
Change In Operating Profile

Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS®

  • Over 40% Reduction in Annual Service Hours from 1995 to 2006
  • On Average Aero-derivative Market Operating More in Cycling Duty During the Last 5 years
gas price influence
Gas Price Influence
  • Change in Duty/Operating Profile – Follows Increasing Costs of Natural Gas
availability reliability
Availability & Reliability

Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS®

  • Decrease in Availability and Reliability During Period of Transition to Cycling Duty Occurs (~1998 – 2001)
  • Fairly Consistent Reliability and Availability in Last 5 Years
duty cycle impact service factor
Duty Cycle Impact – Service Factor

Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS®

  • All Duty Cycles Have Experienced a Decrease in Annual Service Hours in Most Recent 5 Year Period
  • Cycling Duty Units Decreased ~30% - Approximately 950 Service Hours per Year
duty cycle impact service hours start
Duty Cycle Impact – Service Hours/Start

Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS®

  • Annual Service Hours per Start Also Decreases Across All Duty Cycles in Most Recent 5 Year Period
  • Cycling Duty Units Decreased to ~12.9 Hours per Start – Indicative of Daily Start/Stop Operation
duty cycle impact output factor
Duty Cycle Impact – Output Factor

Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS®

  • Output Factor Representative of Average Unit Load During Operation
  • Decreased Output Factor – Not Only are Units Operating Less, Also Operating At Lower Load Levels
duty cycle impact availability
Duty Cycle Impact - Availability

Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS®

  • On Average, Availability Higher Across all Duty Cycles for Most Recent 5 Year Period
  • As Cycling Duty Has Become More Prevalent, RAM Performance has Improved Significantly – Still Lower Than Any Other Duty Cycle
duty cycle impact unplanned events
Duty Cycle Impact – Unplanned Events

Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS®

Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS®

  • Slight Reduction in Frequency of Unplanned Events Over Last 5 years (Increased Time Between Events).
  • Unplanned Events Still Occur Over Twice as Frequently on a Service Hours Basis on Cycling Duty Units than Baseload Units.
  • Significant Decrease in Average Duration for Cycling Duty Units as Number of Units Operating in this Manner Increased
duty cycle impact engine removals
Duty Cycle Impact – Engine Removals

Source: ORAP®; All rights reserved: SPS®

  • Engine Removals Occur More Frequently on Cycling Duty Units
    • Planned Removals Occur Over 50% More Frequently on Cycling Duty than Baseload Duty
    • Unplanned Removals Occur ~37% More Frequently on Cycling Duty than Baseload Duty
summary of ram performance
Summary of RAM Performance
  • Number of Units Operating in Cycling Duty Increasing
  • RAM Performance has Improved in Most Recent 5 Years
  • Cycling Duty More Severe than Other Operating Modes
    • Significant Growth in Availability Performance in Last 5 Years
    • Function of Reduced Downtime per Event
  • Change In Operating Profile to Cycling Duty Highlights the Need for CPLM/Cycles Tracking
    • Daily Start/Stop Operation Increasing – Service Hours per Start Averaging 12 Hours per Start for Cycling Duty Units
    • Reduction of Output Factor – Indicative of Increased Load Following Across All Duty Cycles – Partial Cycles
orap automated cycles tracking
ORAP Automated Cycles Tracking™
  • Last Year Presented SPS Solution for Automated Cycles Tracking…
    • Automatically detects and logs every Full, Partial and Trip Cycle as it occurs
    • Transfers the cycles data (via Internet connection) to the SPS Data Center
    • Accumulated cycles calculations performed and applied to the appropriate parts
    • Through ORAP Interactive™ detailed reports can be run and parts age/accumulated cycles tracked
orap automated cycles tracking status
ORAP Automated Cycles Tracking – Status
  • Initial Remote Data Collection Module Installed
    • Control System Connectivity Verified
    • Network Security and Data Transfer Challenges Resolved
    • Algorithms Validated
      • Several Bugs Identified and Addressed
      • Calculates Full, Trip and Partial Cycles in ‘Real Time’
    • Enhancements Identified
      • ‘Heart beat’ being implemented to ensure Communications Link During Periods when Unit Not Operating
  • Second System Currently Being Readied for Installation
orap cycles tracking cont
ORAP Cycles Tracking - Cont

Cycles Tracking Summary – Web Based Report

orap cycles tracking cont1
ORAP Cycles Tracking - Cont

Cycles Tracking Details – Web Based Report