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Transition and inclusive development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Explore the development of economic growth, inequality, and poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa, and discover policy options to promote inclusive and sustainable development. This conference by Antonie de Kemp from the Policy and Operations Evaluation Department took place on 21st November 2018.

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Transition and inclusive development in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  1. Transition and inclusive developmentin Sub-Saharan Africa Antonie de Kemp Policy and Operations Evaluation Department Include conference 21 November 2018

  2. Contents • Development of economic growth, inequality and poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa • Why economic growth did not translate in to a higher reduction of poverty • Policy options

  3. Economic growth

  4. Poverty did not decrease equally:

  5. Fragile contexts (OECD)

  6. The example of Rwanda Percentage poor 2001 Percentage poor 2014

  7. Causes: • Increase in private consumption was lower than economic growth, due to: • High public expenditure (larger reduction of multidimensional poverty, higher HDI) • High private investments (mining, construction) • High intensity of poverty (high poverty gap) • High inequality • Demographic development • Structure of economic growth

  8. Poverty and inequality:

  9. Governance and inequality

  10. Development of inequality in six countries

  11. Demographic development

  12. Dependency children and youngsters (<20)

  13. Structure of economic development • Economic growth caused by: • Production and export of natural resources (resource boom) • Recovery after conflict (Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique) • Government expenditure (aided by ODA and debt relief) and private investment (mining, construction) • The use of more land for agriculture • Increase of the services sector (telecommunications) • Hardly an economic transition towards a modern economic development

  14. No structural transformation of the economy: • Productivity in agriculture remains low, contributing to high food prices • Enclave character of the mining industry • Manufacturing sector remains small and does not offer much employment • Dutch disease effects negatively impact the competitiveness of local producers on the international (China, India) • Dual character of services: employment mainly in informal low productive services • Jobless growth

  15. Contribution of sectors to GDP and employment

  16. Development manufacturing

  17. Comparison

  18. Challenges: • Economic growth was and is not sustainable and not inclusive • Sub-Saharan Africa will not realise SDGs 1 and 10 • High urbanisation will lead to a further congestion in the cities without the creation of many new jobs • Annually 15-20 million African youngsters enter the labour market • A large majority does not find a job with an income above the poverty level • The factors contribute to frustration and radicalisation • Risks of a ‘trickle down’ of instability from the MENA region (the ring behind the ring)

  19. Megacities

  20. Policy options • Increase agricultural productivity, especially focusing on smaller farmers (land reform and ensuring land rights) • Development of an agro-industry • Strengthening (rural) infrastructure • Strengthening construction, greening of the economy, tourism, and employment in health and education • Education, education, education: focused on connection to the labour market • Basic health care and SRHR • Cash transfer programmes

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