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Slides Prepared by JOHN S. LOUCKS St. Edward’s University. Chapter 15 Multicriteria Decision Problems. Goal Programming Goal Programming: Formulation and Graphical Solution Scoring Models Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Establishing Priorities Using AHP

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slide1

Slides Prepared by

JOHN S. LOUCKS

St. Edward’s University

chapter 15 multicriteria decision problems
Chapter 15Multicriteria Decision Problems
  • Goal Programming
  • Goal Programming: Formulation

and Graphical Solution

  • Scoring Models
  • Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
  • Establishing Priorities Using AHP
  • Using AHP to Develop an Overall Priority Ranking
goal programming
Goal Programming
  • Goal programming may be used to solve linear programs with multiple objectives, with each objective viewed as a "goal".
  • In goal programming, di+ and di- , deviation variables, are the amounts a targeted goal i is overachieved or underachieved, respectively.
  • The goals themselves are added to the constraint set with di+ and di- acting as the surplus and slack variables.
  • One approach to goal programming is to satisfy goals in a priority sequence. Second-priority goals are pursued without reducing the first-priority goals, etc.
goal programming1
Goal Programming
  • For each priority level, the objective function is to minimize the (weighted) sum of the goal deviations.
  • Previous "optimal" achievements of goals are added to the constraint set so that they are not degraded while trying to achieve lesser priority goals.
goal programming approach
Goal Programming Approach

Step 1: Decide the priority level of each goal.

Step 2: Decide the weight on each goal.

If a priority level has more than one goal, for each goal i decide the weight, wi , to be placed on the deviation(s), di+ and/or di-, from the goal.

Step 3: Set up the initial linear program.

Min w1d1+ + w2d2-

s.t. Functional Constraints,

and Goal Constraints

Step 4: Solve the current linear program.

If there is a lower priority level, go to step 5. Otherwise, a final solution has been reached.

goal programming approach1
Goal Programming Approach

Step 5: Set up the new linear program.

Consider the next-lower priority level goals and formulate a new objective function based on these goals. Add a constraint requiring the achievement of the next-higher priority level goals to be maintained. The new linear program might be:

Min w3d3+ + w4d4-

s.t. Functional Constraints,

Goal Constraints, and

w1d1+ + w2d2- = k

Go to step 4. (Repeat steps 4 and 5 until all priority levels have been examined.)

example conceptual products
Example: Conceptual Products

Conceptual Products is a computer company that produces the CP400 and the CP500 computers. The computers use different mother boards produced in abundant supply by the company, but use the same cases and disk drives. The CP400 models use two floppy disk drives and no zip disk drives whereas the CP500 models use one floppy disk drive and one zip disk drive.

example conceptual products1
Example: Conceptual Products

The disk drives and cases are bought from vendors. There are 1000 floppy disk drives, 500 zip disk drives, and 600 cases available to Conceptual Products on a weekly basis. It takes one hour to manufacture a CP400 and its profit is $200 and it takes one and one-half hours to manufacture a CP500 and its profit is $500.

example conceptual products2
Example: Conceptual Products

The company has four goals which are given below:

Priority 1: Meet a state contract of 200 CP400 machines weekly. (Goal 1)

Priority 2: Make at least 500 total computers weekly. (Goal 2)

Priority 3: Make at least $250,000 weekly. (Goal 3)

Priority 4: Use no more than 400 man-hours per week. (Goal 4)

example conceptual products3
Example: Conceptual Products
  • Variables

x1 = number of CP400 computers produced weekly

x2 = number of CP500 computers produced weekly

di- = amount the right hand side of goal i is deficient

di+ = amount the right hand side of goal i is exceeded

  • Functional Constraints

Availability of floppy disk drives: 2x1 + x2< 1000

Availability of zip disk drives: x2< 500

Availability of cases: x1 + x2< 600

example conceptual products4
Example: Conceptual Products
  • Goals

(1) 200 CP400 computers weekly:

x1 + d1- - d1+ = 200

(2) 500 total computers weekly:

x1 + x2 + d2- - d2+ = 500

(3) $250(in thousands) profit:

.2x1 + .5x2 + d3- - d3+ = 250

(4) 400 total man-hours weekly:

x1 + 1.5x2 + d4- - d4+ = 400

Non-negativity:

x1, x2, di-, di+> 0 for all i

example conceptual products5
Example: Conceptual Products
  • Objective Functions

Priority 1: Minimize the amount the state contract is not met: Min d1-

Priority 2: Minimize the number under 500 computers produced weekly: Min d2-

Priority 3: Minimize the amount under $250,000 earned weekly: Min d3-

Priority 4: Minimize the man-hours over 400 used weekly: Min d4+

example conceptual products6
Example: Conceptual Products
  • Formulation Summary

Min P1(d1-) + P2(d2-) + P3(d3-) + P4(d4+)

s.t. 2x1 +x2< 1000

+x2< 500

x1 +x2< 600

x1 +d1- -d1+ = 200

x1 +x2 +d2- -d2+ = 500

.2x1+ .5x2 +d3- -d3+ = 250

x1+1.5x2 +d4- -d4+ = 400

x1, x2, d1-, d1+, d2-, d2+, d3-, d3+, d4-, d4+> 0

example conceptual products7
Example: Conceptual Products
  • Graphical Solution, Iteration 1

To solve graphically, first graph the functional constraints. Then graph the first goal: x1 = 200. Note on the next slide that there is a set of points that exceed x1 = 200 (where d1- = 0).

example conceptual products8
Example: Conceptual Products
  • Functional Constraints and Goal 1 Graphed

x2

1000

800

600

400

200

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

2x1 + x2< 1000

Goal 1: x1> 200

x2 < 500

x1 + x2< 600

Points Satisfying

Goal 1

x1

example conceptual products9
Example: Conceptual Products
  • Graphical Solution, Iteration 2

Now add Goal 1 as x1> 200 and graph Goal 2:

x1 + x2 = 500. Note on the next slide that there is still a set of points satisfying the first goal that also satisfies this second goal (where d2- = 0).

example conceptual products10
Example: Conceptual Products
  • Goal 1 (Constraint) and Goal 2 Graphed

x2

1000

800

600

400

200

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

2x1 + x2< 1000

Goal 1: x1> 200

x2 < 500

x1 + x2< 600

Points Satisfying Both

Goals 1 and 2

Goal 2: x1 + x2> 500

x1

example conceptual products11
Example: Conceptual Products
  • Graphical Solution, Iteration 3

Now add Goal 2 as x1 + x2> 500 and Goal 3:

.2x1 + .5x2 = 250. Note on the next slide that no points satisfy the previous functional constraints and goals and satisfy this constraint.

Thus, to Min d3-, this minimum value is achieved when we Max .2x1 + .5x2. Note that this occurs at x1 = 200 and x2 = 400, so that .2x1 + .5x2 = 240 or d3- = 10.

example conceptual products12
Example: Conceptual Products
  • Goal 2 (Constraint) and Goal 3 Graphed

x2

1000

800

600

400

200

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

2x1 + x2< 1000

Goal 1: x1> 200

x2 < 500

x1 + x2< 600

(200,400)

Points Satisfying Both

Goals 1 and 2

Goal 2: x1 + x2> 500

Goal 3: .2x1 + .5x2 = 250

x1

a scoring model for job selection
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • A graduating college student with a double major in Finance and Accounting has received the following three job offers:
    • financial analyst for an investment firm in Chicago
    • accountant for a manufacturing firm in Denver
    • auditor for a CPA firm in Houston
a scoring model for job selection1
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • The student made the following comments:
    • “The financial analyst position provides the best opportunity for my long-run career advancement.”
    • “I would prefer living in Denver rather than in Chicago or Houston.”
    • “I like the management style and philosophy at the Houston CPA firm the best.”
  • Clearly, this is a multicriteria decision problem.
a scoring model for job selection2
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Considering only the long-run career advancement criterion:
    • The financial analyst position in Chicago is the best decision alternative.
  • Considering only the location criterion:
    • The accountant position in Denver is the best decision alternative.
  • Considering only the style criterion:
    • The auditor position in Houston is the best alternative.
a scoring model for job selection3
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Steps Required to Develop a Scoring Model

Step 1: List the decision-making criteria.

Step 2: Assign a weight to each criterion.

Step 3: Rate how well each decision alternative satisfies each criterion.

Step 4: Compute the score for each decision alternative.

Step 5: Order the decision alternatives from highest score to lowest score. The alternative with the highest score is the recommended alternative.

a scoring model for job selection4
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Mathematical Model

Sj= S wi rij

i

where:

rij= rating for criterion i and decision alternative j

Sj = score for decision alternative j

a scoring model for job selection5
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Step 1: List the criteria (important factors).
    • Career advancement
    • Location
    • Management
    • Salary
    • Prestige
    • Job Security
    • Enjoyable work
a scoring model for job selection6
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Five-Point Scale Chosen for Step 2

ImportanceWeight

Very unimportant 1

Somewhat unimportant 2

Average importance 3

Somewhat important 4

Very important 5

a scoring model for job selection7
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Step 2: Assign a weight to each criterion.

CriterionImportanceWeight

Career advancement Very important 5

Location Average importance 3

Management Somewhat important 4

Salary Average importance 3

Prestige Somewhat unimportant 2

Job security Somewhat important 4

Enjoyable work Very important 5

a scoring model for job selection8
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Nine-Point Scale Chosen for Step 3

Level of SatisfactionRating

Extremely low 1

Very low 2

Low 3

Slightly low 4

Average 5

Slightly high 6

High 7

Very high 8

Extremely high 9

a scoring model for job selection9
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Step 3: Rate how well each decision alternative satisfies each criterion.

Decision Alternative

Analyst Accountant Auditor

CriterionChicagoDenverHouston

Career advancement 8 6 4

Location 3 8 7

Management 5 6 9

Salary 6 7 5

Prestige 7 5 4

Job security 4 7 6

Enjoyable work 8 6 5

a scoring model for job selection10
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Step 4: Compute the score for each decision alternative.

Decision Alternative 1 - Analyst in Chicago

Criterion Weight (wi ) Rating (ri1) wiri1

Career advancement 5 x 8 = 40

Location 3 3 9

Management 4 5 20

Salary 3 6 18

Prestige 2 7 14

Job security 4 4 16

Enjoyable work 5 8 40

Score 157

a scoring model for job selection11
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Step 4: Compute the score for each decision alternative.

Sj= Swi rij

i

S1 = 5(8)+3(3)+4(5)+3(6)+2(7)+4(4)+5(8) = 157

S2 = 5(6)+3(8)+4(6)+3(7)+2(5)+4(7)+5(6) = 167

S3 = 5(4)+3(7)+4(9)+3(5)+2(4)+4(6)+5(5) = 149

a scoring model for job selection12
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Step 4: Compute the score for each decision alternative.

Decision Alternative

Analyst Accountant Auditor

CriterionChicagoDenverHouston

Career advancement 40 30 20

Location 9 24 21

Management 20 24 36

Salary 18 21 15

Prestige 14 10 8

Job security 16 28 24

Enjoyable work 40 3025

Score 157 167 149

a scoring model for job selection13
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Step 5: Order the decision alternatives from highest score to lowest score. The alternative with the highest score is the recommended alternative.
    • The accountant position in Denver has the highest score and is the recommended decision alternative.
    • Note that the analyst position in Chicago ranks first in 4 of 7 criteria compared to only 2 of 7 for the accountant position in Denver.
    • But when the weights of the criteria are considered, the Denver position is superior to the Chicago job.
a scoring model for job selection14
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Partial Spreadsheet Showing Steps 1 - 3
a scoring model for job selection15
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Partial Spreadsheet Showing Formulas for Step 4
a scoring model for job selection16
A Scoring Model for Job Selection
  • Partial Spreadsheet Showing Results of Step 4
analytic hierarchy process
Analytic Hierarchy Process

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), is a procedure designed to quantify managerial judgments of the relative importance of each of several conflicting criteria used in the decision making process.

analytic hierarchy process1
Analytic Hierarchy Process
  • Step 1: List the Overall Goal, Criteria, and Decision Alternatives
  • Step 2: Develop a Pairwise Comparison Matrix

Rate the relative importance between each pair of decision alternatives. The matrix lists the alternatives horizontally and vertically and has the numerical ratings comparing the horizontal (first) alternative with the vertical (second) alternative.

Ratings are given as follows:

. . . continued

------- For each criterion, perform steps 2 through 5 -------

analytic hierarchy process2
Analytic Hierarchy Process
  • Step 2: Pairwise Comparison Matrix (continued)

Compared to the second

alternative, the first alternative is: Numerical rating

extremely preferred 9

very strongly preferred 7

strongly preferred 5

moderately preferred 3

equally preferred 1

analytic hierarchy process3
Analytic Hierarchy Process
  • Step 2: Pairwise Comparison Matrix (continued)

Intermediate numeric ratings of 8, 6, 4, 2 can be assigned. A reciprocal rating (i.e. 1/9, 1/8, etc.) is assigned when the second alternative is preferred to the first. The value of 1 is always assigned when comparing an alternative with itself.

analytic hierarchy process4
Analytic Hierarchy Process
  • Step 3: Develop a Normalized Matrix

Divide each number in a column of the pairwise comparison matrix by its column sum.

  • Step 4: Develop the Priority Vector

Average each row of the normalized matrix. These row averages form the priority vector of alternative preferences with respect to the particular criterion. The values in this vector sum to 1.

analytic hierarchy process5
Analytic Hierarchy Process
  • Step 5: Calculate a Consistency Ratio

The consistency of the subjective input in the pairwise comparison matrix can be measured by calculating a consistency ratio. A consistency ratio of less than .1 is good. For ratios which are greater than .1, the subjective input should be re-evaluated.

  • Step 6: Develop a Priority Matrix

After steps 2 through 5 has been performed for all criteria, the results of step 4 are summarized in a priority matrix by listing the decision alternatives horizontally and the criteria vertically. The column entries are the priority vectors for each criterion.

analytic hierarchy process6
Analytic Hierarchy Process
  • Step 7: Develop a Criteria Pairwise Development Matrix

This is done in the same manner as that used to construct alternative pairwise comparison matrices by using subjective ratings (step 2). Similarly, normalize the matrix (step 3) and develop a criteria priority vector (step 4).

  • Step 8: Develop an Overall Priority Vector

Multiply the criteria priority vector (from step 7) by the priority matrix (from step 6).

determining the consistency ratio
Determining the Consistency Ratio
  • Step 1:

For each row of the pairwise comparison matrix, determine a weighted sum by summing the multiples of the entries by the priority of its corresponding (column) alternative.

  • Step 2:

For each row, divide its weighted sum by the priority of its corresponding (row) alternative.

  • Step 3:

Determine the average, max, of the results of step 2.

determining the consistency ratio1
Determining the Consistency Ratio
  • Step 4:

Compute the consistency index, CI, of the n alternatives by: CI = (max - n)/(n - 1).

  • Step 5:

Determine the random index, RI, as follows:

Number of Random Number of Random

Alternative (n)Index (RI)Alternative (n)Index (RI)

3 0.58 6 1.24

4 0.90 7 1.32

5 1.12 8 1.41

  • Step 6:

Compute the consistency ratio: CR = CR/RI.

example gill glass
Example: Gill Glass

Designer Gill Glass must decide which of three manufacturers will develop his "signature" toothbrushes. Three factors seem important to Gill: (1) his costs; (2) reliability of the product; and, (3) delivery time of the orders.

The three manufacturers are Cornell Industries, Brush Pik, and Picobuy. Cornell Industries will sell toothbrushes to Gill Glass for $100 per gross, Brush Pik for $80 per gross, and Picobuy for $144 per gross. Gill has decided that in terms of price, Brush Pik is moderately preferred to Cornell and very strongly preferred to Picobuy. In turn Cornell is strongly to very strongly preferred to Picobuy.

example gill glass1
Example: Gill Glass
  • Hierarchy for the Manufacturer Selection Problem

Overall Goal

Select the Best Toothbrush Manufacturer

Criteria

Cost

Reliability

Delivery Time

Cornell

Brush Pik

Picobuy

Cornell

Brush Pik

Picobuy

Cornell

Brush Pik

Picobuy

Decision

Alternatives

example gill glass2
Example: Gill Glass
  • Forming the Pairwise Comparison Matrix For Cost
    • Since Brush Pik is moderately preferred to Cornell, Cornell's entry in the Brush Pik row is 3 and Brush Pik's entry in the Cornell row is 1/3.
    • Since Brush Pik is very strongly preferred to Picobuy, Picobuy's entry in the Brush Pik row is 7 and Brush Pik's entry in the Picobuy row is 1/7.
    • Since Cornell is strongly to very strongly preferred to Picobuy, Picobuy's entry in the Cornell row is 6 and Cornell's entry in the Picobuy row is 1/6.
example gill glass3
Example: Gill Glass
  • Pairwise Comparison Matrix for Cost

Cornell Brush Pik Picobuy

Cornell 1 1/3 6

Brush Pik 3 1 7

Picobuy 1/6 1/7 1

example gill glass4
Example: Gill Glass
  • Normalized Matrix for Cost

Divide each entry in the pairwise comparison matrix by its corresponding column sum. For example, for Cornell the column sum = 1 + 3 + 1/6 = 25/6. This gives:

Cornell Brush Pik Picobuy

Cornell 6/25 7/31 6/14

Brush Pik 18/25 21/31 7/14

Picobuy 1/25 3/31 1/14

example gill glass5
Example: Gill Glass
  • Priority Vector For Cost

The priority vector is determined by averaging the row entries in the normalized matrix. Converting to decimals we get:

Cornell: ( 6/25 + 7/31 + 6/14)/3 = .298

Brush Pik: (18/25 + 21/31 + 7/14)/3 = .632

Picobuy: ( 1/25 + 3/31 + 1/14)/3 = .069

example gill glass6
Example: Gill Glass
  • Checking Consistency
    • Multiply each column of the pairwise comparison matrix by its priority:

1 1/3 6 .923

.298 3 + .632 1 + .069 7 = 2.009

1/6 1/7 1 .209

    • Divide these number by their priorities to get:

.923/.298 = 3.097

2.009/.632 = 3.179

.209/.069 = 3.029

example gill glass7
Example: Gill Glass
  • Checking Consistency
    • Average the above results to get max.

max = (3.097 + 3.179 + 3.029)/3 = 3.102

    • Compute the consistence index, CI, for two terms.

CI = (max - n)/(n - 1) = (3.102 - 3)/2 = .051

    • Compute the consistency ratio, CR, by CI/RI, where RI = .58 for 3 factors:

CR = CI/RI = .051/.58 = .088

Since the consistency ratio, CR, is less than .10, this is well within the acceptable range for consistency.

example gill glass8
Example: Gill Glass

Gill Glass has determined that for reliability, Cornell is very strongly preferable to Brush Pik and equally preferable to Picobuy. Also, Picobuy is strongly preferable to Brush Pik.

example gill glass9
Example: Gill Glass
  • Pairwise Comparison Matrix for Reliability

Cornell Brush Pik Picobuy

Cornell 1 7 2

Brush Pik 1/7 1 5

Picobuy 1/2 1/5 1

example gill glass10
Example: Gill Glass
  • Normalized Matrix for Reliability

Divide each entry in the pairwise comparison matrix by its corresponding column sum. For example, for Cornell the column sum = 1 + 1/7 + 1/2 = 23/14. This gives:

Cornell Brush Pik Picobuy

Cornell 14/23 35/41 2/8

Brush Pik 2/23 5/41 5/8

Picobuy 7/23 1/41 1/8

example gill glass11
Example: Gill Glass
  • Priority Vector For Reliability

The priority vector is determined by averaging the row entries in the normalized matrix. Converting to decimals we get:

Cornell: (14/23 + 35/41 + 2/8)/3 = .571

Brush Pik: ( 2/23 + 5/41 + 5/8)/3 = .278

Picobuy: ( 7/23 + 1/41 + 1/8)/3 = .151

  • Checking Consistency

Gill Glass’ responses to reliability could be checked for consistency in the same manner as was cost.

example gill glass12
Example: Gill Glass

Gill Glass has determined that for delivery time, Cornell is equally preferable to Picobuy. Both Cornell and Picobuy are very strongly to extremely preferable to Brush Pik.

example gill glass13
Example: Gill Glass
  • Pairwise Comparison Matrix for Delivery Time

Cornell Brush Pik Picobuy

Cornell 1 8 1

Brush Pik 1/8 1 1/8

Picobuy 1 8 1

example gill glass14
Example: Gill Glass
  • Normalized Matrix for Delivery Time

Divide each entry in the pairwise comparison matrix by its corresponding column sum.

Cornell Brush Pik Picobuy

Cornell 8/17 8/17 8/17

Brush Pik 1/17 1/17 1/17

Picobuy 8/17 8/17 8/17

example gill glass15
Example: Gill Glass
  • Priority Vector For Delivery Time

The priority vector is determined by averaging the row entries in the normalized matrix. Converting to decimals we get:

Cornell: (8/17 + 8/17 + 8/17)/3 = .471

Brush Pik: (1/17 + 1/17 + 1/17)/3 = .059

Picobuy: (8/17 + 8/17 + 8/17)/3 = .471

  • Checking Consistency

Gill Glass’ responses to delivery time could be checked for consistency in the same manner as was cost.

example gill glass16
Example: Gill Glass

The accounting department has determined that in terms of criteria, cost is extremely preferable to delivery time and very strongly preferable to reliability, and that reliability is very strongly preferable to delivery time.

example gill glass17
Example: Gill Glass
  • Pairwise Comparison Matrix for Criteria

Cost Reliability Delivery

Cost 1 7 9

Reliability 1/7 1 7

Delivery 1/9 1/7 1

example gill glass18
Example: Gill Glass
  • Normalized Matrix for Criteria

Divide each entry in the pairwise comparison matrix by its corresponding column sum.

Cost Reliability Delivery

Cost 63/79 49/57 9/17

Reliability 9/79 7/57 7/17

Delivery 7/79 1/57 1/17

example gill glass19
Example: Gill Glass
  • Priority Vector For Criteria

The priority vector is determined by averaging the row entries in the normalized matrix. Converting to decimals we get:

Cost: (63/79 + 49/57 + 9/17)/3 = .729

Reliability: ( 9/79 + 7/57 + 7/17)/3 = .216

Delivery: ( 7/79 + 1/57 + 1/17)/3 = .055

example gill glass20
Example: Gill Glass
  • Overall Priority Vector

The overall priorities are determined by multiplying the priority vector of the criteria by the priorities for each decision alternative for each objective.

Priority Vector

for Criteria [ .729 .216 .055 ]

Cost Reliability Delivery

Cornell .298 .571 .471

Brush Pik .632 .278 .059

Picobuy .069 .151 .471

example gill glass21
Example: Gill Glass
  • Overall Priority Vector (continued)

Thus, the overall priority vector is:

Cornell: (.729)(.298) + (.216)(.571) + (.055)(.471) = .366

Brush Pik: (.729)(.632) + (.216)(.278) + (.055)(.059) = .524

Picobuy: (.729)(.069) + (.216)(.151) + (.055)(.471) = .109

Brush Pik appears to be the overall recommendation.