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CalNex Forecast

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  1. CalNex Forecast Prepared  Friday18 June 2010

  2. Anticipated Flights NOAA P3 • Fri:     Northern SJV flight with G-1 comparison • Sat: NOAA Twin Otter • Fri:    Central Valley flight • Sat:   Flight likely CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200  • Fri:      G-1 comparison with P3 in N SJV; B-200 flight • Sat:     Flights likely • Sun:    No flights, if fly Saturday

  3. Local Features Saturday • high background CO & O3 descending over SoCal • SF/Sac emissions transport to N Sac Valley (west of Cool) • Southern Sac Valley eddy Sat am centered between Davis and Fairfield  • SJV NW nocturnal jet Friday night into Saturday morning  • LA outflow to E deserts Sunday • high background CO & O3 descending over SoCal • morning NW winds clear SF emissions from Sac Valley and carry fresh Sac and SF emissions to SJV

  4. Synoptic Overview for California • Friday June 18 • Trough dominates CA weather • On-shore flow over the entire coast line • Deep marine layer along the coast • Southwesterly to westerly transport flow in the interior • Strong surface winds in most areas except Southern SJV • Saturday June 19 • Trough remains in place over CA • On-shore flow continues over the entire state • Marine layer over coast should remain deep • Gradient relaxes slightly • Transport winds continue southwesterly to westerly, weaken • Interior winds will be similar but will weaken

  5. Synoptic Overview for California (cont'd) • Sunday June 20 • Axis of the trough moves inland • Influence of trough continues, but becomes more baggy • Light winds over state in the early morning • N CA winds turn northerly in the Sac Valley as trough axis moves east • Winds along N Coast turn northwesterly • S CA winds remain southwesterly to westerly • SJV winds turn northerly • Beyond… • Baggy trough remains in place into next week • Gradients continue to relax resulting in a general weakening of the winds for all areas

  6. Analysis GFS – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT

  7. 12 hour GFS – 12 Z Friday – 05 PDT

  8. 24 hour GFS – 00 Z Saturday – Fri 17 PDT

  9. 36 hour GFS – 12 Z Saturday – 05 PDT

  10. 48 hour GFS – 00 Z Sunday – Sat 17 PDT

  11. 60 hour GFS – 12 Z Sunday – 05 PDT

  12. GFS 3 day – 00 Z Monday – Sun 17 PDT

  13. ECMWF 3 day – 00 Z Monday – Sun 17 PDT

  14. 3.5 day GFS – 12 Z Monday – 05 PDT

  15. 4 day GFS – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

  16. 4 day ECMWF – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

  17. 5 day GFS – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

  18. 5 day ECMWF – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

  19. Large Scale Transport RAQMS FX updated Fri, Jun 18th

  20. NOTE:  Enhanced background O3 production in slides 27 & 28 is actually 15-20 ppbv/day.

  21. FWD and BACK trajectoriesMM5 fine grid http://orthus.arb.ca.gov/calnex/forecast/nam_mm5_forecast.html Initialized 12 Z Thu Jun 17

  22. RH Vertical Cross Section SF - Tahoe http://orthus.arb.ca.gov/calnex/forecast/nam_mm5_forecast.html Initialized 12 Z Thu Jun 17

  23. Northern California Observed, Model-Interpolated Winds for SF Bay http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi and COAMPS fine grid plots http://www.sccoos.org/data/coamps/coamps.html 

  24. http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi

  25. http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi

  26. North SF Bay surface tracer release Concentrations at 205m sigma-level COAMPS Initialized 00 Z Thursday

  27. 36 hour 12Z - Fri

  28. 42-hour  18 Z Friday

  29. 48-hour 00Z Sat

  30. 54 hour 06 Z Saturday

  31. 60 hour 12Z Saturday