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CalNex Forecast

CalNex Forecast

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CalNex Forecast

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  1. CalNex Forecast Prepared  Saturday19 June 2010

  2. Anticipated Flights NOAA P3 • Sat: • Sun:     • Mon: NOAA Twin Otter • Sat:     afternoon flight in Sac w/ CARES • Sun:    No Flight • Mon:    morning & afternoon flights in Sac Valley CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200  • Sat:     Flights likely • Sun:    No Flights • Mon:    Sac/N SJV flights with NW winds forecast

  3. Local Features Friday retospective • USG for O3 occurred at Ash Mountain (elevated site in eastern Tulare County) Saturday • SF/Sac emissions likely transport to N Sac Valley (west of Cool) • Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab still conducting prescribed grass burns (200-300 acres) when winds OK Sunday • high background CO & O3 descending over SoCal • Southern Sac Valley eddy Sat am centered between Davis and Fairfield  • Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab still conducting prescribed grass burns (200-300 acres) when winds OK Monday • light NW winds clear SF emissions from Sac Valley and carry fresh Sac and SF emissions to SJV • high background CO & O3 descending over Sonora Desert (east and southeast of LA) • enhanced bkg O3 production in San Francisco and Los Angeles Midweek • USG for O3 possible in southern SJV

  4. Synoptic Overview for California • Saturday June 19 • Trough axis moves through CA • Onshore flow continues, stronger N • Marine layer deeper in the north • Sunday June 20 • Trough moves into nrn NV • Transport flow turns W/NW in the north • Onshore flow continues for the south • Monday June 21 • Weak trough remains over the west coast • Weak onshore flow continues • Beyond… • Ridge builds Tuesday for the south • Another trough digs in for Wed-Thurs • GFS is stronger, Euro keeps storm track well north

  5. Analysis GFS – 00 Z Saturday – Fri 17 PDT

  6. 12 hour GFS – 12 Z Saturday – 05 PDT

  7. 24 hour GFS – 00 Z Sunday – Sat 17 PDT

  8. 36 hour GFS – 12 Z Sunday – 05 PDT

  9. 48 hour GFS – 00 Z Monday – Sun 17 PDT

  10. 60 hour GFS – 12 Z Monday – 05 PDT

  11. GFS 3 day – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

  12. ECMWF 3 day – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

  13. 3.5 day GFS – 12 Z Tuesday – 05 PDT

  14. 4 day GFS – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

  15. 4 day ECMWF – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

  16. 5 day GFS – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

  17. 5 day ECMWF – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

  18. Large Scale Transport RAQMS FX updated Sat, Jun 19th

  19. 500m CO Sat afternoon

  20. 500m CO Sun afternoon

  21. 500m CO Mon afternoon

  22. 500m O3 Sat afternoon

  23. 500m O3 Sun afternoon

  24. 500m O3 Mon afternoon

  25. 500m O3 prod Sat afternoon

  26. 500m O3 prod Sun afternoon

  27. 500m O3 prod Mon afternoon

  28. 500m PM2.5 Sat afternoon

  29. 500m PM2.5 Sun afternoon

  30. 500m PM2.5 Mon afternoon

  31. 500m vertical displacement Sat afternoon

  32. 500m vertical displacement Sun afternoon

  33. 500m vertical displacement Mon afternoon

  34. Northern California Observed, Model-Interpolated Winds for SF Bay http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi and COAMPS fine grid plots http://www.sccoos.org/data/coamps/coamps.html 

  35. http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi

  36. North SF Bay surface tracer release Concentrations at 205m sigma-level COAMPS Initialized 00 Z COAMPS output still unavailable

  37. CANSAC Initialized 00 Z Saturday

  38. Saturday 0500 PDT

  39. Saturday 1100 PDT

  40. Saturday 1700 PDT

  41. Sunday 1100 PDT

  42. Sunday 1700 PDT

  43. Monday 1100 PDT

  44. Monday 1700 PDT

  45. Sacramento Valley AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA330 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010.DISCUSSION...COOL MID/UPPER LOW ALONG THE OREGON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SKIRT THE OR/CA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN OREGON LATER SUNDAY...AND THEN IT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OFF INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM EARLIER THIS WEEK...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE BEGINNING TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIRMASS WARMS IN RESPONSE TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WEAKENED ONSHORE FLOW. A BAGGY TROUGH LINGERS WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING..AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OREGON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z AND SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AFTER 00Z WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MARINE STRATUS MOVING THROUGH THE DELTA THIS MORNING...BRINGING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS KMHR...BEFORE DISPERSING BY AROUND 18Z. LOCAL SOUTHWEST GUSTS THROUGH DELTA/STRAIT OF CARQUINEZ UP TO 30-35 KT.

  46. Sacramento Valley (cont'd) Saturday (from Friday's forecast call) • AM: Still good onshore flow from N. Bay and E. Bay toward SV; Sac Cnty at 8kt, upvalley outflow; eddy along I-80 west of Davis at 15Z • Afternoon: Weaker onshore allows better push from Bay Area toward the foothills; flow from Sac Dtwn to Cool should be ideal in afternoon between 21Z and 00Z; a bit of calming early aftn also allows brief buildup before slightly increased onshore flow in late afternoon; SW3kt in early aftn and WSW5kt in late aftn for Sac Cnty; light and variable for N. SV due to sfc divergence • Evening: light onshore continues from N. Bay to Sac Cnty • AM PBL 1,500ft, PM PBL 3,000 to 5,000ft • MBL 1,000ft • Cirrus north of forecast area in AM, few cirrus/altocumulus in afternoon (7.4 to 8.4km) • Max aftn temp 26C; good air quality 

  47. Sacramento Valley (cont'd) Sunday (from Friday's forecast call) • AM: Light onshore decreases, Sac Cnty to become calm after early morning SW flow; N5kt wind along W. SV • PM: Bay Area onshore increases a bit, clips into lower Sac Cnty by late afternoon and heads toward SJV; light NW flow Sac Cnty initially outflow toward foothills, outflow to SJV in late aftn with stronger wind; lighter N. wind along W. SV, light NW develops in the rest of the valley • AM PBL below 500ft; PM PBL 3,000 to 6,000ft, lower in N. SV • MBL 500ft • Clear, few cirrus in afternoon • Max aftn temp 29C; moderate air quality Monday (from Friday's forecast call) • Some light north wind, onshore at night on Monday • Mostly clear • Max aftn temp: 30C; moderate air quality Extended (from Friday's forecast call) • Very light wind on Tuesday with some onshore, stronger onshore flow on Wednesday afternoon • Max aftn temp warms to low 30C; moderate air quality 

  48. Sacramento Trajectories(from Friday's forecast)