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Analyzing Accelerating Moment Release in Australian Earthquakes through Spatial-Temporal Scanning

This study investigates the spatial-temporal patterns of Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) in Australian earthquakes using data from events above 4.0 magnitude since 1960. We apply retrospective fitting tests and spatial-temporal scanning methods to identify significant AMR sequences. Out of 24 identified AMR sequences, 20 were followed by larger earthquakes. Our findings support the concept of Critical Point Hypothesis (CPH) and examine factors influencing AMR, including fault systems and loading rates, contributing to our understanding of seismic activity in Australia.

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Analyzing Accelerating Moment Release in Australian Earthquakes through Spatial-Temporal Scanning

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  1. Spatial-temporal scanning and statistical test of accelerating moment release(AMR) using Australian earthquake data Yucang Wang, Can Yin, Peter Mora • QUAKES

  2. Outline • 1 Motivation • 2 Seismicity in Australia • 3 Methods • 4 Results • 5 Conclusions

  3. Australian earthquakes of above 4.0 since 1960

  4. Australian earthquakes of above 5.0 since 1980

  5. Methods 1 retrospective fitting test with large events (Bufe,Varnes,1993) (Bowman,1998) optimal size Rc  minimum C and m

  6. No. Time Long. Lat. Mag. AMR or not ? m C Rc (Km) 1 1981/6/16 144.20 -38.90 5.1 Yes 0.25 0.45 125 2 1982/11/21 146.96 -37.20 5.4 Yes 0.42 0.60 150 3 1988/1/28 119.60 -21.05 5.0 No, few data 4 1989/10/13 122.43 -17.64 5.4 No, few data 5 1989/12/27 151.61 -32.95 5.5 Yes 0.25 0.55 175 6 1990/1/17 116.99 -31.72 5.5 Yes 0.25 0.62 125 7 1994/8/6 151.29 -32.92 5.3 No, too close to No.5 8 1996/9/25 146.47 -37.88 5.0 Yes 0.36 0.55 200 9 1997/3/5 138.97 -33.82 5.0 Yes 0.62 0.65 100 10 2000/8/29 146.29 -38.41 5.0 No, too close to No.8 11 2001/9/28 117.00 -30.50 5.1 Yes 0.47 0.60 100 12 2001/10/20 120.60 -33.60 5.2 No, few data

  7. 12 events chosen7 with sufficient data were preceded by AMR3 could not be analyzed due to insufficient data2 are too close to other events

  8. Scaling: Rc ~ M

  9. Scaling: fitting time ~ M

  10. R = 150Km 2 Spatial –temporal scanning of AMR • dx = dy = 0.1 degree, dt = 3 months

  11. 24 AMR sequences are found20 were followed by earthquakes of above 4.54 false alerms

  12. Conclusions and discussions 1 Our results support CPH 2 What control AMR ? fault system , loading rate

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