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The implementation of Carbon Budget Model at EU level

The European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) has developed an in-house Carbon Budget Model (CBM) to estimate the carbon budget at the EU Member State level. This model leverages inventory-based and yield-data-driven approaches to simulate the evolution of forest carbon budgets, incorporating factors such as natural disturbances and human activities. The CBM has been implemented across 26 EU countries, assessing various scenarios, including harvest rates and disturbances, allowing for detailed forecasts on carbon stock changes and forest management impacts.

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The implementation of Carbon Budget Model at EU level

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  1. The implementation of Carbon Budget Model at EU level Roberto Pilli, GiacomoGrassi, Nuria Guerrero, Giulia Fiorese JRC technical workshop 2014 5-7 May 2014 Arona (Italy)

  2. Since 2010, JRC is working to develop an in-house model capacity to estimate the EU carbon budget at country level for each EU MS • After a preliminary analisis of the main models applied at international level, the Carbon Budget Model (CBM) developed by the Canadian Forest Service was selected as potential tool • Between 2010 and 2012, the model was applied to a specific case study in order: • to test the CBM in different silvicultural systems, proposing a novel approach to model the uneven-aged forest structure • to apply the CBM to a European country and estimate the forest C balance of the FM area • to explore the impact on the C balance of different scenario assumptions (i.e., harvest rates and disturbance events)

  3. The model was applied to • 26 EU countries • Considering: • FM area • ARD • Fire & storms • HWPs

  4. What is the Carbon Budget Model ? • It is an inventory-based, yield-data driven model, that simulates the evolution of the C budget of forests, including the effect of natural and human-induced disturbance events (Kurz et al., 2009) CBM Other data NFI data

  5. What the CBM need …

  6. What CBM provides … BY Main species C stock change C stock by forest pools CBM Regions Age class evolution Silv. systems

  7. CBM output: the C stock

  8. CBM output: the C stock change

  9. CBM output ...

  10. CBM output: the tree selection system on an uneven aged high forests

  11. What CBM provides … FUTURE & PAST Estimates Effect of Natural disturbances BY Main species C stock change C stock by forest pools CBM Regions Age class evolution Silv. systems Effect of Harvest

  12. CBM outputs … from the reference NFI year forward C stock change of each pool at country level, accounting for the effect of harvest NFI year

  13. CBM outputs … from the reference NFI year backward Comparing results with historical data !

  14. CBM outputs … including effect of natural disurbances

  15. What CBM provides … FUTURE & PAST Estimates Effect of Natural disturbances BY Main species C stock change C stock by forest pools CBM Regions Age class evolution Silv. systems Effect of Harvest Link to HWPs

  16. CBM outputs: detailed accounting of each HWP pool CBM Forest C sink HWP C sink IPCC Tier 2 approach

  17. Thank you

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