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Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species

Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species. Nathan Piekielek Whitebark pine project planning session. Objective. Create future spatially-explicit species distribution models for GYE: Douglas fir Lodgepole pine Others? Incorporate competition into future models

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Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species

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  1. Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species Nathan Piekielek Whitebark pine project planning session

  2. Objective • Create future spatially-explicit species distribution models for GYE: • Douglas fir • Lodgepole pine • Others? • Incorporate competition into future models • Compare to simulation modeling results

  3. Douglas Fir Results 778 Presence Models: BRT, MARS, RF Predictors: tmin4, pptannave, permave AUC: 0.83 – 0.87 Crossval: 0.815 – 0.83 % Correct Classified: 75 – 78.3% Crossval: 73.6 – 76.2%

  4. Lodgepole Pine Results 1071 Presence Models: BRT, GLM, MARS, RF Predictors: gdd5, deft10, pptannave, sandfract, siltfract permave, phave AUC: 0.75 – 0.89 Crossval: 0.75 – 0.83 % Correct Classified: 69.3 – 80.6% Crossval: 69.5 – 75.6%

  5. Draft Future Results – Douglas Fir 0.82 RCP 8.5 2070 - 2100 Probability of Presence PRESENT Geographic Properties of Areas of Suitable Climate (RCP 8.5) 0.16

  6. Examining present day competition N=454 FIA sites 23 sites WBP only

  7. Examining present day competition with Douglas fir N=60 FIA sites

  8. Examining present day competition with Lodgepole pine N=189 FIA sites

  9. Examining present day competition with Engelmann spruce N=289 FIA sites

  10. Examining present day competition with Subalpine fir N=331 FIA sites

  11. One way future competition options • Binary: • WBP in presence of some other species always loses (i.e. model future WBP absence) • Continuous: • Use probability of presence of competitors to “adjust down” probability of presence of WBP • Other?

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