Knocking at the College Door

1. Knocking at the College Door 1988 to 2018 Presentation for SHEEO/NCES Network Conference and IPEDS Workshop March 31, 2004 – Washington, DC Cheryl Blanco Director, Policy Analysis & Research and Jacquelyn Stirn, Research Associate WICHE

2. History • 6th Edition of the projections • Includes projections by race/ethnicity and public/private school, like previous edition Includes projections of graduates by income for the first time • Provides actual data for 1987-88 through 2001-02

3. Birth Data • Birth data was collected from the Monthly Vital Statistics Reports from the National Center for Health Statistics. • http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/pubs/pubd/mvsr/supp/46-45/46-45.htm

4. Enrollment and Graduate Data • Public • Data directly from the states • Easier and more difficult than the last time • Race/ethnic data more complicated

5. Nonpublic Data • Nonpublic • Some states could provide data • NCES Private School Survey raw data • Compare with the previous data • More difficult than the last time

6. Income Data Sources • Common Core of Data district level data • Census School District Tabulation for income information • Other methods and sources detailed in the publication

7. Methodology • Cohort Survival Methodology • Better in the short term • Weaker in the long term

8. Some Provisos • Projections, not Predictions • No way to account for the effect of: • NCLB and other accountability measures • New state policy objectives • Reductions in funding that might affect access

9. Who’s Knocking? • 3.2 million high school graduates, forecast for 2008-09 – 8% higher than today • More minority students than ever: almost 43% of enrollments by 2007-08 (a 23% increase in five years)

10. The West and the South will see increases The Northeast and Midwest won’t see much change Among the Regions South • Graduates West Midwest Northeast • Enrollment • The South still dominates in school enrollments, thanks to population shifts in the last decade • The West bumps the Midwest from the #2 slot.

11. How things will change Percent Change in Number of Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by State, U.S., 2001-02 (actual) and 2017-18 (projected) Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2003.

12. Some states will see significant losses Percent Change in Number of Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by State, U.S., 2001-02 (actual) and 2017-18 (projected) Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2003.

13. Some will see manageable losses Percent Change in Number of Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by State, U.S., 2001-02 (actual) and 2017-18 (projected) Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2003.

14. Others will see manageable growth Percent Change in Number of Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by State, U.S., 2001-02 (actual) and 2017-18 (projected) Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2003.

15. A number of states will see considerable growth Percent Change in Number of Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by State, U.S., 2001-02 (actual) and 2017-18 (projected) Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2003.

16. A few are looking at significant increases Percent Change in Number of Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by State, U.S., 2001-02 (actual) and 2017-18 (projected) Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2003.

17. Two are off the charts Percent Change in Number of Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by State, U.S., 2001-02 (actual) and 2017-18 (projected) Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2003.

18. Fewer graduates in 4 Western states in 2018

19. West Midwest Northeast South American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic White, non-Hispanic The New Minority Majority • The West is projected to be a minority majority region for the class of 2010 • The South will follow suit in 2015 • 11 states and the District of Columbia will be minority majority by the class of 2014: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Texas • What’s driving the trend: A surge in Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander student enrollment.

20. More Hispanics and Asian/Pacific Islander Graduates – Fewer White, non-Hispanics

21. About half of high school graduates will be from families earning under $50,000

22. West Midwest Northeast South Family Income Data: A Baseline • The South is expected to have the highest proportion of graduates in the lowest income group (under $20,000): nearly 1 in every 5 grads in the class of 2007 • About 17 percent of graduates in the West will be from this income group • The Midwest and Northeast will see about 13 percent each • Expect proportionally more graduates in the lowest income group in Alaska, California, Iowa, Nevada, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and Wyoming

23. U.S. 17% NM 27% CO 12% CA 18% Within Each Region: Lots of Variability A look at the lows – The Nation: 17% of grads will be low income In the West:

24. NM 7% CO 17% CA 18% U.S. 14% Within Each Region: Lots of Variability A look at the highs – The Nation: 14% of grads will be high income In the West:

25. Contact Us – Cheryl Blanco Director, Policy Analysis and Research WICHE cblanco@wiche.edu 303.541.0221 www.wiche.edu Jacquelyn Stirn Consultant jstirn@yahoo.com