AK EPSCoR – Integration Core . Kalb Stevenson, RAM Group, UAA & INE, UAF Lilian Alessa, RAM Group, UAA Andrew Kliskey, RAM Group UAA Mark Altaweel RAM Group UAA & University College London. Resilience and Adaptive Management Group. Outline . Social Ecological Systems (SES)
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Kalb Stevenson, RAM Group, UAA & INE, UAF
Lilian Alessa, RAM Group, UAA
Andrew Kliskey, RAM Group UAA
Mark Altaweel RAM Group UAA & University College London
Two Axes: Community Size and Resilience (proximity to a threshold).
Assessing trajectory: Is it towards resilience? Towards vulnerability or collapse? Towards transition?
Vulnerability mapping (Social + Ecological data):
Seward Peninsula and Fish River watershed
Two middle figures are 100 years out
Environmental + Social modeling “messy” or complex systems.
Uses agent-based modeling w/ agents as programed elementsModeling Consequences
Step 1: Assess water source selection process
with observed trends and determine consequences of water
Modeling Consequences “messy” or complex systems.
We combine models of social dynamics, which are strong stand alone models, with models of hydrological change, which are also strong stand alone models.
The key in approaches such as this is in acquiring organizing and sorting the social datasuch that they are interoperablewith the biophysical data.
The goal is to understand the consequences of various change regimes and of different policy and management decisions.
This type of engagement allows you to advance the fundamental understanding of a system, how variables interact, how they change over time and what kinds of trade offs can be expected.
Undertaking of “sentiment analysis”
- Relationship of sentiments towards concepts
Applying AIDA Data: AIDA