Who Voted

1. Who Voted 4/2/2013

2. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election.

3. Office Hours • Today 11-2 • Wednesday 10-2

4. Election Day

5. Voter Turnout in 2008, 2010, 2012 • 130 Million voted, 61% which was the highest rate since 1968 • In 2010 it was 42% • In 2012 it was 57.5%

6. Voter Turnout Went Down

7. A Shrinking margin of Victory • Obama’s margin shrank from 2008 by 2% • Only 1.3% higher than Bush’s Re-election

8. “If you had the Ear of the Presidential Candidates. what advice you would give to advise them on their respective campaigns”?

9. Dr. Long

10. Dr. Wise

11. Dr. Smith

12. Reassembling the 2008 Coalition Group Factors and the 2012 vOTE

13. Motivate the Base • For Groups to matter • Size • Suffrage • Loyalty

14. Groups that Made a difference in 2008 and again in 2012 • African Americans • Latinos • Young Voters • Partisans

15. Group voting in 2008 African-Americans Latinos Voted 2-1 for Obama Still voted “below their weight” Key in North Carolina, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico • Increased turnout • Increased support for Democrats • Key in Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina

16. Race and Vote in 2008

17. Race and Vote in 2012

18. The Role of Race in 2012 • One of the largest racial divides in history • It influences many aspects of society • Within the next 50 years, no racial or ethnic group will have a minority

19. The Decline of the White Vote

20. Where Race Was a Factor Latinos African Americans Ohio Virginia Florida • New Mexico • Colorado • Nevada • Florida

21. Young People in 2008

22. Age and 2010

23. Young People in 2012

24. Young Voters in 2012 • 60-40 For Obama • This is down by 6% • What about other Age Groups

25. Still the biggest factor in vote choice Partisanship

26. Party Identification • A perpetual screen • More important in recent years • Still the Best Predictor

28. Partisanship in 2008

29. Partisanship in 2010

30. Partisanship in 2012

31. Independents Mattered • 29% of the electorate • Often Break for the Wining Candidate • 2004 vs. 2008 • In 2012, they Broke for Romney, and Johnson • But not enough to win

32. Partisanship in 2012 • Still the Biggest Factor in Voting • More D’s than R’s, the D’s Win • America is sorted by party once again

33. A way of looking at Politics Ideology

34. What is an Ideology • A set of Fundamental beliefs about government and politics • They fit together into some consistent and coherent view of the political world • How should government work?

35. More Moderates and Conservatives

36. Ideology in 2008

37. Ideology in 2010

38. Ideology

39. Love and Marriage

40. Gender and Marriage • The Gender Gap • Why?

41. Gender in 2008

42. Gender in 2010

43. Gender in 2012

44. Marriage • Married People vote Republican • Singles vote Democratic

45. Marital Status in 2008

46. Married and Singles

47. Gender and Race