1 / 20

Spatial Microsimulation and Crime Analysis

Spatial Microsimulation and Crime Analysis. Mark Birkin Professor of Spatial Analysis and Policy University of Leeds. The Obvious Questions. What is Spatial Microsimulation ? Why is it interesting to the audience at a workshop on Crime, Policing and Society ?. Microsimulation.

ulani
Download Presentation

Spatial Microsimulation and Crime Analysis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Spatial Microsimulation andCrime Analysis Mark Birkin Professor of Spatial Analysis and Policy University of Leeds

  2. The Obvious Questions... • What is Spatial Microsimulation? • Why is it interesting to the audience at a workshop on Crime, Policing and Society?

  3. Microsimulation • Introduced to economics in the 1950s by Guy Orcutt • Motivated by a desire to understand the distributional consequences of financial policies (tax, benefits etc) • Represent individual households or population members rather than array-based aggregates • Apply rules e.g. person(s) under 18 then allocate child benefit • Idea enthusiastically adopted by geographers – also concerned with (spatial) distributions

  4. Represent Individuals

  5. Distributional Consequences

  6. Policy Rules

  7. And then the clever stuff...

  8. The Benefits  Easy to generate • Easy to aggregate • Easy to link Easy to manipulate Easy to scale Easy to implement Easy to project

  9. Benefits (1) Easy to Aggregate Kavroudakis D, Ballas D, Birkin M (2012) Using spatial microsimulation to model social and spatial inequalities in educational attainment, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, in press.

  10. Benefits (2) Easy to Link Tomintz M., Clarke G.P., Rigby J. (2008) The geography of smoking in Leeds: estimating individual smoking rates and the implications for the location for stop smoking services, Area 40(3), 341-353

  11. Benefits (3) Easy to Manipulate Spatial microsimulation for rural policy analysis in Ireland: The implications of CAP reforms for the national spatial strategy D. Ballas, G.P. Clarke, E. Wiemers, Journal of Rural Studies 22 (2006) 367–378

  12. Benefits (4) Easy to Scale Easy to Implement Birkin M, Malleson N, Hudson-Smith A, Gray S, Milton R (2011) Calibration of a Spatial Interaction Model with Volunteered Geographical Information, International Journal of Geographical Information Science, forthcoming.

  13. Benefits (5) Easy to Project Ballas, D., Clarke G.P., Dorling D. Rossiter D. (2007) Using SimBritain to model the geographical impact of national government policies, Geographical Analysis, 39(1), 44-77

  14. Problems and Issues X Lack of standards X Lack of software X Data is messy and heterogeneous ? Strong applications, weak theory ? Challenging ethics X Tend to be mechanistic

  15. From Microsimulation to Individual Based Simulation • Need some insights from agent-based modelling to bolster the MSM • Conceptual and behavioural detail • Evidence driven and policy rich • Wu B, Birkin M, Rees P (2008) A spatial microsimulation model with student agents, Computers Environment and Urban Systems, 32, 440-453. • Jordan, R., Birkin, M., Evans, A. (2011): ‘Agent-based Simulation Modelling of Housing Choice and Urban Regeneration Policy’. In: Bosse, T.,  Geller, A. and Jonker, C. (eds.), Multi-Agent-Based Simulation XI.  Springer, Berlin, 152-166. Malleson and Birkin (2012) • Malleson N., Birkin M. (2012) Analysis of crime patterns through the integration of an agent-based model and a population microsimulation, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2012.04.003

  16. MSM-IBM for Crime Policy Analysis • Explore relationship between house type and residential burglary • Are certain house types more at risk? • And do community demographics have an effect? • Burglary rates by Housing Type by OAC Super Group Low guardianship? Affluence within disadvantage? Neighbourhood cohesion? ?

  17. MSM-IBM and Crime In recent years, criminologists have become interested in understanding crime variations at progressively finer spatial scales, right down to individual streets or even houses. To model at these fine spatial scales, and to better account for the dynamics of the crime system, agent-based models of crime are emerging. Generally, these have been more successful in representing the behaviour of criminals than their victims. In this paper it is suggested that individual representations of criminal behaviour can be enhanced by combining them with models of the criminal environment which are specified at a similar scale. In the case of burglary this means the identification of individual households as targets. We will show how this can be achieved using the complementary technique of microsimulation. The work is significant because it allows agent-based models of crime to be refined geographically (to allow, for example, individual households with varying wealth or occupancy measures) and leads to the identification of the characteristics of individual victims.

  18. MSM-IBM and Crime

  19. MSM-IBM and Crime

  20. Conclusions • Microsimulation is a proven technique in applied economics and spatial analysis • Manyestablished applications in housing, health, education, transport... • Extension to crime is natural and obvious • Strength of the techniques include applied scale and policy relevance • Tendency towards rigidity – a more flexible combination of individual based approaches may be the way forward here

More Related