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“Bubble Boom, Bubble Bust- 9 Steps to the Next Great Depression ”

“Bubble Boom, Bubble Bust- 9 Steps to the Next Great Depression ”. presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. Timeline of Depressions. 60. 80. 2070s. 2010s. 60. 35. 60. 1930s. 40. 60 Years. 1870s. 1840s. 1780s. 1740s. 1680s. CRB Index (Log) vs S&P 500 1790-2007. S&P 500. CRB Index.

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“Bubble Boom, Bubble Bust- 9 Steps to the Next Great Depression ”

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  1. “Bubble Boom, Bubble Bust-9 Steps to the Next Great Depression” presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr.

  2. Timeline of Depressions 60 80 2070s 2010s 60 35 60 1930s 40 60 Years 1870s 1840s 1780s 1740s 1680s

  3. CRB Index (Log) vs S&P 5001790-2007 S&P 500 CRB Index 1930s 1870s 1780s 1890s 1840s

  4. CRB Index vs S&P 5001816-1845 S&P 500 48% Decline CRB Index

  5. US Canals1802 - 1860 Source: Historical Statistics of the United States

  6. CRB Index vs S&P 5001860-1878 S&P 500 36% Decline CRB Index

  7. Miles of Railroad Built 5 B 3 1 A 4 C 2 Source: Historical Statistics of the United States

  8. CRB Index vs S&P 5001870-1897 S&P 500 24% Decline 36% Decline 28% Decline CRB Index

  9. Inflation in Great Britain over 1000 Years

  10. CRB Index vs S&P 5001922-1942 S&P 500 72% Decline CRB Index

  11. 9 Steps to the Bubble Bust 1) Tech Bubble Top – 3/20002) Adverse Geopolitical Cycle – 9/20013) Housing Bubble Top – 7/20054) Emerging Markets Top – Late 2008?5) Tech S-Curves Hit 90%, Second Tech Top – Late 20086) Decennial Cycle – Late 20097) 4-Year Cycle – Late 20098) Inflation/Commodity Bubble Top – Late 2009 – Early 20109) Spending Wave Top/80-Year Growth Boom – 2008 - 2011

  12. Nasdaq Composite1998-2025 5 B D E C A Source: Yahoo Finance

  13. 34-36 Yr. Geopolitical CycleDow Industrials 20,000

  14. Long Term House Prices vs. Inflation Source: Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd Edition, Princeton University Press, 2005.

  15. Real Estate Spending Cycles Vacation Homes Trade-Up Homes 48 Starter Resorts Homes Spending Apartments 42 55 Vacation/ Retirement Shopping Centers Homes Offices Consumer Colleges 31 Life Cycle 63 26 21 18 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 Age

  16. Median Asking Price for Existing Houses in Washington, DC

  17. Japan Residential Housing Price Index: Tokyo 23 Wards

  18. Brazil Bovespa vs. Nasdaq May-10 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-98 Jan-97 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-94

  19. India Sensex Index vs. Nasdaq Jun-10 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-98 Jan-97 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-94

  20. Shanghai Composite Index vs. Nasdaq Jul-10 Jul-09 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-04 Jul-03 Jul-02 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-98 Jan-97 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-94

  21. Mobile Phone S-Curve Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 90 86% 2007 82% 80 2006 77% 73% 2005 70 63% 2004 58% 60 Percent of Households 2003 50% 2002 50 47% 40 2000 30 13% 20 10% 1995 .1% 10 2% 1990 0 2001 1994 2008 Time Source: Forrester, Census Bureau

  22. Internet S-Curve Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 90 79% 74% 73% 2007 80 71% 2006 67% 70 2005 2003 2004 66% 61% 60 2002 50% Percent of Households 2001 50 40 31% 1999 30 22% 1998 20 17% 1997 10 10% 0 1993 2000 2007 Time Source: Forrester, Census Bureau

  23. Broadband S-Curve Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 90 80% 80 2007 70 63% 2006 60 Percent of Households 50% 50 37% 40 2004 30 22% 2002 20 10% 10 0 2000.5 2004.5 2008.5 Time Source: Pew Internet

  24. Decennial Pattern Since 1900Dow Industrials - Average 10-Year Decennial PatternWeekly Data 1/6/1900-12/31/1999 Source: Ned Davis Research, www.ndr.com

  25. 4th Presidential Year 1st Presidential Year 2nd Presidential Year 3rd Presidential Year Four Year Presidential Cycle Source: Ned Davis Research, www.ndr.com

  26. 29-30 Year Commodity Price CycleCRB Index (PPI before 1947) 2038-39 2009-10 1980 1920 1951

  27. Historical Price of Oil1946-Present 5 5 3 4 3 b 1 2 a c 4 1 2 Source: Dow Jones Energy Service

  28. Inflation Indicator

  29. Inflation Forecast 20 Year-Olds on a 3-Year Lag Minus 63 Year-Olds Inflation Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics

  30. The Spending WaveBirths Lagged for Peak in Family Spending

  31. The Spending WaveBirths Lagged for Peak in Family Spending

  32. 80-Year New Economy Cycle Growth Boom Innovation Shake-Out Maturity Boom Innovation Spending Wave We Are Here Innovation/ Inflation Stable Prices Stable Prices Inflation Disinflation Deflation Inflation 2038 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028

  33. Top 1% Share of U.S. Household Wealth The rich quickly recovered from the tech bust 1929 Stock Market Peak Market crash and tax policy hit the rich hard Source: Edward Wolff, as printed in Wealth and Democracy

  34. Distribution of Asset Ownership By Wealth Percentile in 2004 Common Stocks Housing Equity Financial assets dominated by the richest… …but real estate is dominated by the common man Source: The State of Working America 2006/2007

  35. Top Federal Individual Income Tax Rates1913 - 2010

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