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Virtual Watershed. NSF Biocomplexity in the Environment Program 2004-2008 Christopher Lant ( Geograph y) PI Steven Kraft, Jeff Beaulieu ( Agr. Economics ) John Nicklow ( Civil Engineering ) Michelle Zhu ( Computer Science ) Raja Sengupta ( Geography ) McGill

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virtual watershed
Virtual Watershed

NSF Biocomplexity in the Environment Program 2004-2008

Christopher Lant (Geography) PI

Steven Kraft, Jeff Beaulieu (Agr. Economics)

John Nicklow (Civil Engineering)

Michelle Zhu (Computer Science)

Raja Sengupta (Geography) McGill

George Malanson (Geography) Iowa

slide3

Corn

Other crops

Pasture

Wheat

Soybean

Forest

Urban

Water

Land Use is the Lynchpin Between

Social Factors and Environmental Results

slide10

Contingent probabilities of land use in a field given land uses in the previous year

Probability that a hectare will contain

Use last Year Corn Soy Double Grass Forest Total

All Corn .07 .81 .01 .11 .00 1.00

All Soybeans .48 .34 .01 .17 .00 1.00

Double Crop.03 .24 .02 .72 .00 1.00

Pasture/Hay.02 .07 .01 .89 .00 1.00

Forest .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 1.00

slide11

Land Use Change Hypotheses

  • The use chosen for a field is influenced by the physical geographic characteristics of the field such as soil type and slope. (Yes)
  • (2) The use chosen for a field is influenced by economic costs and opportunities for various uses. (Yes)
  • (3) The use chosen for a field is influenced by the historical use of that field. (Yes)
  • (4) The use chosen for a field is influenced by the use of neighboring fields. (No)
slide12

Ecological-Economic

Production Possibility

Frontiers

and their

Evolution

slide13

Create sets of Initial Alternatives

(Initial Population)

Evaluate fitness, Rank the alternatives

GA Logic

Choose mates(pairing)

Repeat

Create offspring (crossover)

Multiple Generations

lead to

Optimal Solution

Mutate

Optimal Solution

slide18

Phosphorus and Water Quality Index:

Highly Correlated

R = -0.99

slide19

Nitrogen and Water Quality Index:

Highly Correlated

R = -0.98

slide34

What We’ve Learned About the PPF

  • Landscapes that yield high or low sediment yields also yield corresponding N and P yields with correlations of 0.93 - 0.98.
  • Competition among crops for land produces as classic PPF
  • Soybeans, and especially corn, is a trade-off with all ecosystem services, but hay is complementary.
  • Carbon correlates positively with water quality at 0.84.
  • 5) The current land use pattern is very sub-optimal, more so with respect to ecosystem services than gross margin.
slide37

Any Questions?

Virtual Watershed Diagram from Proposal