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Climate change: the latest evidence Professor Mike Hulme Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research LCVP Annual Conference, 15 June 2006, London. How certain can we be about climate change? How do we manage the unavoidable? How do we avoid the unmanageable?

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slide1

Climate change: the latest evidence

Professor Mike Hulme

Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

LCVP Annual Conference, 15 June 2006, London

  • How certain can we be about climate change?
  • How do we manage the unavoidable?
  • How do we avoid the unmanageable?
  • Finding policy alliances for climate change
risk of overshooting 2 c target
Risk of overshooting 2ºC target

Source: den Elzen and Meinshausen

slide8

Changes in ocean pH

pH reduced by 0.3 to 0.4 by 2100 under IS92a (i.e., a 100% to 150% increase in [H+])

Orr et al. 2005 (Nature)

slide9
how do we manage the unavoidable?

… building a resilient society

tools for adaptation planning
Tools for adaptation planning

UK national climate scenarios

Risk assessment framework

UK climate change programme

slide11

Heatwave 2003 – health care

  • Record high temperatures (>37°C) in southeast England (and west-central Europe) in early August 2003
  • 15,000 premature deaths across west-central Europe, mostly the elderly
  • This led to UK National Health Service issuing a “Heatwave Plan for England” to minimise future adverse effects on human health
slide13
how do we avoid the unmanageable?

... building a low carbon economy

decoupling growth consumption and emissions

Decoupling growth, consumption and emissions

Source: UK Climate Change Programme

negotiating beyond 2012

Negotiating beyond 2012

Source: David Victor

policy alliances
policy alliances
  • energy security
  • ‘making poverty history’
  • environmental protection
  • energy efficiency