Learning Based Project Management. Idea. Gate 1. Stage 1. Gate 2. Stage 2. Gate 3. Stage 3. Gate 4. Stage 4. Gate 5. Stage 5. PIR. Stage-Gate New Product Development Process. Pre- Commercialization Business Analysis. Decision on Business Case. Initial Screen.
PIRStage-Gate New Product Development Process
& Market Launch
Source: Robert G. Cooper, Winning at New Products, Addison-Wesley 1993
Categories of Uncertainty
The Interactive Intercom system leverages DT Corp’s technology into a whole new platform for growth: the Business customer. Enabling two way communication and broadcast communications, in sync with data or video on screens across the building’s meeting rooms simultaneously may be beneficial for companies needing to disseminate information broadly or get decisions made based on a broad constituency in the company. The recording feature enables documentation that communications were effectively transmitted and that decisions were, in fact, made.
The market potential for these systems is DKK 2.1 billion ($US 350 million), and annual technology upgrades add more promise. If DT Corp were to realize 5% market share, we would enjoy DKK 105 million ($US17.5 million) from this venture in the first year, which would account for a 20% growth spike in our revenue. Given that the technology already exists, costs would be minimized, and our ROI is estimated to be approximately 18% for the first year.
Market Potential is $350 million
5% market share
$17.5million in revenue
Costs will be minimized, so can achieve 18% ROI.
Accompanying Primary Assumptions
# of potential users? Price?
What value does the market see in this? Why would even 5% adopt it? What will be the advertising that supports us getting 5%?
Based on what price?
Howso? Engineering development? Mktg costs?
Galactic Travel Corporation
We believe we have a way to transport living beings nearly instantaneously from one specific location to any other specific location in the galaxy. This would alleviate traffic congestion, waiting, and the costs associated with other forms of transportation infrastructure. We believe we have the capability to temporarily decompose an individual into his/her unique molecular structure, transport the molecules through space (and perhaps time) using electro-chemical and magnetic fields as our energy source, and recompose them upon their arrival at their destination.
We believe this could revolutionize transportation as well as societal infrastructure, enabling gatherings of members from across the globe and, indeed, the galaxy, as well as individuals to go wherever they want instantaneously.
We face a number of technical challenges, chief among which is the reassembly upon arrival, but believe this can be overcome. We are asking for a go ahead to take the next steps in exploring this opportunity.
Red = Critical Assumptions
As of 5/29/08: Got 2 partners. One developed a blueprint based on DNA sequencing (biology), and the other from a fingerprint scan. DNA sequencing more accurate….Fingerprint scan more cost effective.
Next steps: What is the potential for cost reduction with partner #1 and what is the potential for increasing accuracy with partner #2? (Are these the most Critical on the list of technical uncertainties? Do these impact the other dimensions of uncertainty?)
As of 5/29/08: Ran two tests:
a. Control existing forces in a manner that would allow cohesive transport (Vanderwall’s forces, Electron density forces)
b. Apply something physical to the decomposed cryogenized matter, e.g. a nano-coating sealant.
Both test failed.
Next steps: Rather than taking a cryogenic approach to decomposition, convert the matter to energy using plasma physics. Explore properties of Debye Spheres.
Emergent Uncertainty: Can we do this while maintaining the blueprint to enable re-composition?
As of 5/29/08:
A presentation at a technical conference by one of our scientists regarding the potential for plasma physics to play a role in transportation, along with presentation of initial data demonstrating plasma as a medium for carrying cryogenic material drew attention from an Air Purification company. They believe this can have major applications in moving specific types of particles that occur naturally in some geographies to other, locations that need such particles.
New Uncertainty (Organizational)…Is this a business we want to get into?
Two major corporations (Pepsico and Google) have expressed interest in a demonstration device.
As of 5/29/08: Have identified a potential partner for #2 above, but cannot convince them to engage with us. Continuing to look for others.
Have found university center working on #3. Have joined that center.
New Uncertainty: What will be our IP position given our work with the university? Assume we will want exclusive ownership (R, O)
Assume we’re prepared to partner.
As of 5/29/08.. Yes, permission to partner on decomposition and re-composition, but not on blueprinting. Keep that as a new domain and build competency. (Note interaction with IP issue raised above).
Emergent Uncertainty: How get access to necessary talent for blueprinting: Assume: Hire from the university whose center we just joined.
2. Is senior leadership prepared to move into this particular strategic domain of transportation?
As of 5/29/08.. Discussion with senior leadership indicates enthusiasm about the military applications for now. (Impacts M).
Opportunity Articulation (Opp Rec Framework)
Discovery Driven Plan
Tested Business Proposal
Implement Biz Proposal