1 / 43

Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report

Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report. Joint NAEDEX-23 and APSDEU-11 Meetings Boulder, USA. 02-06 May 2011. Gilles Verner (Jos ée Morneau) Chief, Data Assimilation and Quality Control Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada. Mike Manore

tuj
Download Presentation

Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Joint NAEDEX-23 and APSDEU-11 Meetings Boulder, USA. 02-06 May 2011 Gilles Verner (Josée Morneau) Chief, Data Assimilation and Quality Control Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Mike Manore Director, Monitoring Strategies and Network Design Meteorological Service of Canada

  2. Outline • Current Operational Status: • Space Based Monitoring and Satellite reception facilities • IT Infrastructure (Computers and Telecoms) • Operational NWP system at CMC, data usage • Canadian observations; migration to TDCF and some data issues • Recent NWP Changes and Future Developments: • Oct. 2010: Regional LAM 3D-Var • March/April 2011: Canadian Pcp Anal. (CaPA) + CIS 3D-Var Ice Anal. • June: Major Global improvement: (mods. to physics and more obs., SST) • June: Major EPS improvement: EnKF and model resolution, SST • July: Regional EPS • Next: Regional LAM 4D-Var • Next: Update to Sat. Obs (RARS, GPSRO, AVHRR Winds) • Future : data usage, assimilation and models

  3. Space-Based Monitoring activities Environment Canada lead: Mike Manore • understanding satellite data requirements • Environment Canada wide • meteorological, climate, ice, marine oil spill, wildlife habitat, etc,…. • ensuring data access & exchange • coordination/arrangements with satellite operators and other users • gov’t-to-gov’t, gov’t-to-agency, commercial • MoU with NOAA, Agreement with Eumetsat… • all appropriate missions and sensors • operation of EC satellite data reception and processing systems • within Gov’t of Canada ‘Shared Federal Infrastructure’ • EC leadership for operational meteorological missions • operate as a national network: GOES- Alfheim; HRPT – Bradley • ownership for national SAR wind system • future missions • influence future missions to meet EC requirements • Canada (CSA), International • E.G. CSA PCW mission • Chinook mission – no longer in the plan

  4. MSC Satellite Data Reception Facilities EARS - Eumetsat Upgrade to Resolute HRPT site and telecoms (T1) completed in 2010 Resolute GOES Gander HRPT EARS Edmonton (2) UK MetO Vancouver Dartmouth Winnipeg CMC (3) Ottawa Three HRPT sites are METOP ready (received in Gander). X-band capability in Edmonton (1 site). Toronto NOAA

  5. Example of N-18 image from Resolute Bayavailable in Dorval 12 minutes after end of scan

  6. IT - Computers and Telecoms • Current IBM status : • OPS: 121 compute nodes; R&D: 121 compute nodes • Total of 4512 P5+ processors • New 2.5 year contract signed with IBM - upgrade in Sept. 2011. Plan is twin clusters, total 16384 P7 cores (~10x current capacity) OFF-SITE turnkey system • FE’s: all Linux based, new clusters soon (used for pre- and post-processing); major project in 2010 • Links to NOAA-TOC (GTS), UK MetO (meteosat + GTS back-up), EUMETSAT (EARS), internet to NESDIS/NCEP • Recent discussions for link to NOAA (TOC-NCEP-NESDIS), at 45 mbps capacity. Target is Fall 2011. • Recent discussions with UK MetO – RMDCN connection • EumetCast also under consideration

  7. CMC-MRD unified multi-scale model : GEM GEM = Global Environmental Model

  8. OPS REG-LAM 3D-Var System Blue shows the uniform resolution section of previous variable resolution GEM Red shows the grid of the operational REG-LAM3D (15-km, 649x672) with 3D-Var assimilation (100 km) on the LAM domain Boundary conditions are obtained from a uniform resolution (55 km) global GEM initialized by a 3D-Var analysis (T108, ~185 km) valid at the same time as the LAM analysis

  9. Current Hi-Res (2.5 km) LAM windows

  10. North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS): Joint project involving MSC, NWS and the NMSM

  11. Various configurations of Reg. EPS Vancouver 2010 Beijing 2008 OPS-REPS Haïti 2010/11

  12. Observations assimilated at CMC Type Variables Thinning Radiosonde/dropsonde U, V, T, (T-Td), ps 28 levels Surface report (SYNOP, SHIP, BUOYs) T, (T-Td), ps, (U, V over water) 1 report / 6h Aircraft (BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS) U, V, T 1o x 1o x 50 hPa per time step ATOVS NOAA 15-16-17-18-19, AQUA, METOP 250 km x 250 km per time step Ocean Land AMSU-A 4-14 6-14 AMSU-B / MHS 2-5 3-4 Water vapor channel GOES 11-13 IM3 (6.7 m) 2o x 2o 3-hourly AIRS 87 IR channels 250kmx250km/time step ASCAT U,V at 10 meter over ocean 100kmx100km/time step 7 MW channels 200kmx200km/time step SSM/INIL AMV’s (METEOSAT E-W, GOES E-W, MTSAT-1R) U,V (IR, WV, VI, 3.9μ channels) 1.5o x 1.5o 11 layers, per time step MODIS polar winds (Aqua, Terra, Global & DB) U,V ~180 km boxes 11 layers, per time step Profiler (NOAA Network) U,V (750 m) Vertical hourly GPSRO (COSMIC, GRACE, GRAS) Refractivity 830 m, per time step U,V

  13. Canadian observations - MTDCF • Two major areas of development underway for MTDCF (leads are Tony Colavecchia and Yves Pelletier) • Radiosonde data: Using Vaisala software at each site to generate both alphanumeric and BUFR bulletins (template with 4D trajectory). BUFR data from 2 sites received and validated at CMC. Awaiting telecoms upgrade for full network deployment • Surface data: Will have centralized processing (DMF initiative) using raw data formats from stations to encode in BUFR using template 3 07 080 plus a national template extension. Data from SYNOP, METAR and SA will be in BUFR. Test data to be available at CMC during Summer 2011. • Will need a transition period when data in both BUFR and alpha. codes would be available. Some data processing adaptation to do (both NWP and forecast applications) and need to have some data to do so! • Have started to process international data fro NWP and DMF.

  14. Canadian observations • Canadian radiosonde data – still alternating between Loran sondes (no wind) and GPS sondes, roughly ½ network each. To be completed by end of Summer. Issue related to large stock of Loran sondes. Additional cost to operate 100% GPS is $1M. • Canadian radar data - available at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) is operational, full volume scans available. Available to NOAA on CMC datamart but not yet in BUFR. No QPE product yet. Issue of data exchange format. • Some research wind profilers in Southern Ontario and Quebec: operated by University and private company, data now available to CMC from 8 sites and should be inserted on GTS once validated, in BUFR code (OPERA software): headers to be communicated as soon as available. Another 2 sites in 2011, but significant issues with operating funds. Data quality issues have been identified and is slowing down progress. • Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR as part of MTDCF. • Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…data now in BUFR. • Some soil TT data now available, eventually in BUFR. Alphanumeric format could be made available. • Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA01 CWAO) and total column ozone.

  15. Canadian observations • “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail: data problems as reported by MetOffice and NOAA : surface elevations are not available or wrong. Data should be inserted by each individual country and not by CMC. • SAR-Winds: Demonstration application generates marine sfc winds from SAR and ASAR imagery (Radarsat and Envisat). Fairly high resolution over small areas, wind direction information obtained from NWP model (LAM or REG) or from cross-polarization if available. One-year transition before full operational transition. • Canadian AMDAR – very little change to operations: • AC Jazz: data from 25 CRJ on GTS, all on GTS. Data received from 4 DHC-8 only, but retained due to ongoing problems with data quality of DHC-8. • Also obtaining data from 2 NavCanada CRJ’s, data quality is good and transmitted on GTS. Often in remote areas and low levels. • No progress with other airlines. • MSC-ADAS system and software is used for data reception and processing, in-house Linux based system. Fully redundant. • Monitoring of data is on-going and showing importance of good monitoring before distribution of data.

  16. Canadian AMDAR coverage

  17. Ontario-Québec Wind Profiler Network (OQ Net) Courtesy of Wayne Hocking (University of Western Ontario)

  18. Scatter plots (OQnet) – March 2011 5000 m 1000 m 3000 m Bias = 0.43 STD = 3.69 Bias = 0.38 STD = 2.48 Bias = -0.46 STD = 3.46 8000 m 10000 m Bias = 0.21 STD = 3.98 Bias = -0.24 STD = 5.11

  19. Scatter plots (NOAA) – March 2011Wolcott, Blueriver, Woodlake, Winchester, Slater, Neligh 4750 m 1000 m 3250 m Bias = -0.16 STD = 2.19 Bias = 0.11 STD = 1.91 Bias = 0.02 STD = 2.05 7750 m 10000 m Bias = -0.75 STD = 2.51 Bias = -0.36 STD = 2.75

  20. Eaxple of SAR Wind - Barrier Jet - 17 Feb 2007

  21. Availability of aircraft data : status ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO – on GTS Large increase in amount of ADS data in North Atlantic! Alaska Airlines has joined the MDCRS in the USA

  22. Availability of aircraft data : status ADS: UANT01 CWAO – also UANT99 KDDL

  23. Other data issues • SSM/I F15 – Still received and used for operational ice analysis • Future plans for Scatterometer? Availability of OceanSat? • Access to SMOS data ? Data volume (10 GB/day is problematic for NRT NWP (CaLDAS). Need a lower volume NRT product. • Would like to access direct broadcast FY-3a. Agreement signed with CMA, but still need technical information to adapt AHRPT receivers and processing software (any info. would be useful). Interested in accessing Global sounder data if available? • Collection of global ADS-Met data. Recent increase over North Atlantic appears mostly uncoordinated? What about expansion of ADS in other areas? • GeoNetcast system for Americas – with similar content as Eumetcast Ku band? • Access to other GPS-RO instruments if possible. • Issue with change in COSMIC GPS-RO in Oct 2009

  24. Change in processing of COSMIC GPSRO data – 12 oct 2009 Change in Oct. 2009 Change in Oct. 2009

  25. Change in processing of COSMIC GPSRO data – 12 oct 2009 Starting October 12, 2009 00:00UTC, the CDAAC near real-time data products will include the changes explained in COSMIC status updates from April 16, 2009 and May 12, 2009.b MetO not affected – not using Ps correction in adjoint

  26. Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting(much delays due to Linux migration in 2010) October 2010 – Regional LAM 3D-Var • Continental scale limited area version of GEM, same resolution • Hourly piloting (BC’s) from 55-km global system, run at same time as LAM, with its own 3DVar analysis • Using same data as previous system • Paper of Fillion et al, Weather & Forecasting, 2010. • Data assimilation support for higher resolution LAMs • 4D-Var version now ready (April 2011) March 2011 – CaPA (Canadian Precipitation Analysis) • Optimum interpolation, 6h and 24h accumulations, NOAM domain • First guess from Reg-15 km • SYNOP, METAR, SHEF, SA, RMCQ (COOP sites) data • Requires extensive QC, particularly in Winter • Analysis must include confidence index for use • Radar QPE not yet included

  27. Spin-up of REG-LAM 3D-Var

  28. CaPA 6h, 2011-03-11 00-06Z ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE

  29. Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting March 2011 – CIS 3D-Var NOAM Ice Analysis • Explosion in availability of SAR data in next 5 years, and rapid evolution in quantity of ice products to generate • Need to automate some labour intensive tasks at CIS • Goal is to produce automated analyses of sea-ice conditions for operational needs of MSC: • enhanced ability of CIS to deliver operational sea-ice products over larger area than currently possible • improved NWP by supplying better sea-ice analyses for initializing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere forecasts in the Arctic. • Using NWP-like data assimilation set-up, 5-km NOAM grid • SSM/IS and AMSR-E using Nasa-Team-2 algorithm • CIS RadarSat image analysis and daily ice chart (manual analyses) • CIS lake analysis (manual analysis) • First automated product at CIS to be Davis Strait Ice Edge • Global configuration (10-km) in preparation for operational NWP at CMC • Future: Assimilation of scatterometer, visible-infrared, SAR/ASAR and ice thickness satellite-based observations • Future: Coupling to regional and global ice-ocean-atmosphere models

  30. Assimilated data: Typical data coverage SSM/I ice concentration AMSR-E ice concentration CIS daily ice charts CIS image analyses

  31. Next version of global system – June 2011 • Change to physics to reduce false alarms in tropical cyclones (more stable tropical BL) • New SST global analysis • Improved dynamical bias correction for radiances (same code for all) • SSM/IS (7 SSMI-like channels), F16 only • IASI (62 channels, initially planned for 150), no WV • WV AIRS channels initially included were rejected • CSR (Geo-rad) data with RTTOV – 5 GEO (includes MTSAT) • Reduced thinning for all radiance data (from 250 km to 150 km, roughly 3x more radiance data) • Moisture data from AMDAR • FASTEM bug fix in RTTOV • Increased resolution of inner loops to T180 rejected (due to timings) • Accepted for operational implementation; subjective evaluation very positive, including tropical cyclone forecasts. Small anal. differences over Pacific leading to often better medium range forecasts NOAM • Total data count increasing from 1.9M/day to 4.1M/day • All changes also included in Regional system

  32. Verification against raobs – day 6 OPS PAR Northern Hemis. O-F 144hr Southern Hemis. O-F 144hr

  33. Verification: anomaly correlation OPS PAR Northern Hemis. GZ 500 hPa Tropics GZ 500hPa Southern Hemis. GZ 500hPa RMS

  34. Next version of global EPS – June 2011 • GEM with staggered vertical coordinate • New SST global analysis (same as global) • EPS at higher horizontal resolution (600x300, ~66 km) • L40, top at 2 hPa • Revised stochastic parameterizations • EnKF using 192 members • Each member at same resolution as before (400x200, ~100 km) with L58 and top at 2 hpa • Incorporates AMSUA channels 11 and 12 • Still using old thinning for all radiance data (from 250 km) • FASTEM bug fix in RTTOV as in GDPS • Bias correction and QC from GDPS • Still under evaluation in parallel run but approval for operational implementation expected soon; subjective and objective evaluation very positive, much improved verifications.

  35. NWP changes in next few months(but IBM migration to take care of…) • Regional Ensemble Prediction System (accepted) • 20 members, GEM-LAM grid, 33-km L28 • 72-hr fcst, initial condition from GEPS-EnKF • Boundary conditions from 20-GEPS members • Reg-LAM 4D-Var (ready for proposal) • Same grid as Reg-LAM 3D-Var • Same obs. as new global system (80% more obs than 3DVar) • TLM/AD piloting from global trial fields • Upgrade to 10-km planned for early 2012 • Update to observations • GPSRO update (TerraSARX, SAC-C) • RARS AMSUA/B/MHS (EARS/AP-RARS/SA-RARS) • AVHRR Polar Winds • Satellite changes (GOES, MTSAT : CSR &AMV`s, SSMIS) • Additional AIRS & IASI channels ? RTTOV-10 ?

  36. Verifications against G2 4D-Var Analyses 48-h DIFF RMSE (m) GZ-500 hPa Winter-2009 Blue: 4D-Var is better

  37. REG-3D REG-4D Winter 2009 48h Forecast GZ-500 hPa SUMMER-2008 12h Forecast UV-500 hPa

  38. Longer term NWP changes and data • Global 20-25 km and vertical staggering, T180 inner loops, 100-km thinning • Increase resolution in GEPS/EnKF, use of GEPS for monthly forecasting • Windsat ; NPP (ATMS,CrIS) ; Metop- 2 ; OceanSAT (scat)? GPS-ZWD (Reg-4dvar) ; • Radiosonde data in BUFR (4D profiles), similar processing as for AMDAR • CaLDAS (SMOS data, eventually SMAP, soil TT profiles) • Begin development of Regional-EnKF for REPS • Data assimilation for sea ice (3D-Var global and lam): SSMIS, AMSR, SAR • Other satellite observations as they become available (ADM-Aeolus, GPM, Sentinel, etc) • Assimilation of cloudy radiances • EC involvement in PCW if mission is approved (ground segment, data processing and products), assimilation • Assimilation of chemical constituents in GEM-MACH (R. Ménard) • Ocean modelling and assimilation (with Mercator) • Major project underway to unify the EC assimilation systems to meet requirements of both EPS and Deterministic systems • Coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice NWP/Assimilation system

  39. Monitoring Web sites • http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring • http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring/CAMDAR • http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring/SAR • User: monitoring PW: CMC • http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/grib/index_e.html For description of nwp fields

  40. www.ec.gc.ca

More Related