DIME/PMESII TOOLS: Past, Present and Future

1. DIME/PMESII TOOLS:Past, Present and Future Dean Hartley January 21, 2008

2. Why DIME/PMESII Tools? • The U.S. has, is, and will engage in operations (including shaping) for which combat Measures of Merit (MOMs) are insufficient • At the policy level • Need to understand what operations might be needed • Need to understand what such operations would entail • Military force structure • Non-military (State Dept, NGO, IO, UN, etc.) resources • Procedures, strategies, tactics, etc. • Costs • MOMs • At the Strategic/Operational/Tactical levels • All of the above, with more detail • Need to define and perform training and education • It starts with defining the operations • Nature and size will depend on the situation • Nature of each will include one or more (likely more than one) of the following types of operations (old OOTW categorization)

3. Peace (PO) Operations Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief National Integrity Operations Military Contingency Operations Peacekeeping (PK) Operations Peace Enforcement (PE) Operations Noncombatant Evacuation Operations (NEO) Counterdrug Operations Humanitarian Assistance Enforcement of Sanctions/ Maritime Intercept Operations (MIO)/ Quarantines UN Chapter VII Peace Operations Observer Missions Combatting Terrorism Humanitarian and Civic Assistance Enforcing Exclusion Zones UN Chapter VI Peace Operations Peace Imposition Antiterrorism Ensuring Freedom of Navigation (FON) and Overflight UN Chapter VI 1/2 Peace Operations Preventive Diplomacy Counterterrorism Aggravated Peace Support Operations (APSO) Disaster Relief Counterinsurgency Protection of Shipping Preventive Deployment Nation Assistance or Nation Building Show of Force Pre-Conflict Peace Building Delegatory Peacekeeping Disaster Relief Domestic Strikes or Attacks Post-Conflict Peace Building Security Assistance Raids Peacemaking Disaster Relief International Foreign Internal Defense Recovery Operations/ Search and Rescue (SAR) Military Support to (Domestic) Civil Authorities (MSCA) Arms Control Disaster Control Deterrence Relocation of Refugees/ Illegal Immigrants/ Illegal Emigrants Consequence Management Disarmament Support to Insurgencies Counterproliferation Operations Other Than War (OOTW) Taxonomy

4. What are DIME/PMESII Tools? • DIME/PMESII tools are those that support MOMs such as • Stability • Peacefulness • Support for U.S. interests • Freedom • Economic security • These (and other similar) MOMs require information on the situation • P: Political state variables • M: Military state variables • E: Economic state variables • S: Societal state variables • I: Information state variables • I: Infrastructure state variables • Changing the values of the MOMs requires the application of • D: Diplomatic interventions • I: Information interventions • M: Military interventions • E: Economic interventions • The tools must include the interactions among these variables • Multiple goals may require multiple tools

5. Tool Dimensions • Time Frame - Timing/Urgency • Purpose Dimension - End Use • Planning • Deliberate • Crisis • Analysis • Operations • Training • Application Dimension - Type of Activity • Impact Evaluation • Mission Planning • Data/Information Development, Situation Awareness • User Dimension - Who Needs It? • J-8/OSD • CINCs • Services • Non-DoD • Technique Dimension - Type of Tool • Simulation Oriented • Non-Simulation Oriented • Spreadsheets • Checklists • etc.

6. Situation Display Deliberate Planning/Analysis-Oriented Tool Needs† Mission Definition Tool Resource Evaluation JWARS Task Analysis Tool Instability Prediction Tool MRM ACTOR Force Design Tool Integrated Mission Planning Tool Impact Evaluation Impact Simulation CAPS+ FAST / SEAS / COMPOEX Logistics Tool JEB+ Disaster Evaluation Tool ISSM Transport Tool CATS Data Warehouse CFAST Cost Tool Communication Evaluation Tool Information Tools COST LLIW/EBB Simulation Orientation Non-Simulation Orientation

7. Application Mission Definition Tool Resource Evaluation Analysis JWARS Task Analysis Tool Later Instability Prediction Tool Deliberate Planning MRM Force Design Tool Mission Definition Tool Resource Evaluation Integrated Mission Planning Tool Impact Evaluation Impact Simulation JSIMS Task Analysis Tool Instability Prediction Tool CAPS+ MRM Force Design Tool Integrated Mission Planning Tool Impact Evaluation Impact Simulation Situation Display Situation Display Situation Display Logistics Tool Logistics Tool Training Mission Definition Tool Resource Evaluation Disaster Evaluation Tool JEB+ Disaster Evaluation Tool Task Analysis Tool Transport Tool Instability Prediction Tool CATS MRM Data Warehouse Transport Tool Force Design Tool Cost Tool Integrated Mission Planning Tool Communication Evaluation Tool Impact Evaluation CATS COA & MOE Analysis Tool CAPS+ Information Tools Data Warehouse Logistics Tool CFAST LLIW/EBB JEB+ Disaster Evaluation Tool Real Soon Crisis Planning Transport Tool Cost Tool CATS Communication Evaluation Tool Data Warehouse CFAST Cost Tool Communication Evaluation Tool Information Tools COST Information Tools Now Operations LLIW/EBB LLIW/EBB Simulation Orientation Non-Simulation Orientation Time Frame DIME/PMESII Tool Dimensions (4 of 5) ACTOR FAST / SEAS / COMPOEX ISSM

8. DIME/PMESII TOOLS Status in 1998-99

9. 1998 Partial List of 130 Tools (PACOM & OSD/PA&E)[Most with only slight value for OOTW]

10. Example: OUSD(C) Costing Tool (Built) • Contingency Operational Support Tool (COST) Built ca. 1998-99 • Requirements for Costing Tool • Incremental costs of notional OOTWs, to support long-term analysis • Generic types of operations, represented by a few cost drivers • COST not designed for this, but could support • Probable incremental costs, to support decision to engage in a particular OOTW • Complete cost model, permitting iterative refinements • COST meets the requirement • Relative (full) costs, to support the selection of mission plan • Support comparison of costs of alternative COAs • COST would require modifications to permit selection of full costs • Costs incurred, to support recovery from other agencies and govts • Ensure all recoverable costs are identified • COST would require modification with database of allowed categories • Incremental costs of a particular OOTW, to support Congressional budget process • Ensure long-term operations are correctly budgeted • COST should support this at FOC • Cumulative costs of a particular operation • Ensure capture of costs of replacing lost capabilities • COST would require major modifications • Actual costs of a completed operation • Capture and compare actual costs against forecasts • COST would require additional data gathering to support a database of actual costs

11. Create Reports Choices Reports 1.6 Mission Standards Task List Mission Doctrine & Allocations Doctrine IGTL Create Task List Units Units Externals 1.1 Externals Choices Unit Data Nominate Critical Units Choices Doctrine Unit Data Doctrine Quantities Nominate Support Units 1.2 Quantities Externals Externals Choices 1.3 Consumption Data Choices Capacity Data Define Logistics Define Transport 1.4 1.5 Example: Integrated Mission Planning (Conceptual)

12. DIME/PMESII TOOLS Status in 2008

13. 2008 Partial List of 118 Tools[Most with moderate value for DIME/PMESII]

14. Trends in DIME/PMESII Tools • In 1998: • Most of the tools were “dual-use”: • Designed for combat, but could be used, e.g., logistics tools • However, even they were often wrong-direction: compute “tail” given “tooth,” rather than compute “tooth” given “tail” • Early databases existed, supporting warnings, e.g., ACTOR, ALADUN, FEW, GEDS, HEWS, KEDS, NEAR-TERM FORECITE, PANDA, PERICLES, but were not widely used • There were some special application tools, counter-drug, intel, and disaster models • There were a few potentials: CarePlan, DEXES/CAM, GCAM, RDSS, SIAM, Spectrum, SWARM, but not widely used • In 2008: • The “dual-use” tools are still there • The databases and warning systems are still there • But, there are several full featured simulation tools: COMPOEX, FAST Toolbox (DIAMOND-US, ISSM, etc.), SEAS, SENSE, with usage histories • And there are now agent-based models: Agile, Mana, NetLogo, PAX, PMFServ, Pythagoras, Senturion, Socrates, StarLogo, with usage histories and people who know how to create useful DIME/PMESII tools • And there are tool-creating technologies beyond agent-based models, e.g., Systems Dynamics, with usage histories • Finally, we are beginning to get traction in the non-DoD world: State Department, social sciences

15. Historical Developments Academic Interest Early DoD Interest Increasing DoD Interest Beginning State Dept Interest

16. DIME/PMESII TOOLS Future

17. Where Do We Go From Here? • Increase and codify our knowledge • What are the tools we have good for? • What are the things we want to do that we can’t do or can’t do easily? • What do we know how to do, but haven’t done yet? • What are the things we don’t know how to do or don’t know how to do well? • How do we learn how to do these things? • Perform VV&A on existing tools • This generates knowledge on the first two questions • It also supplies some clues on the second two questions • Hold workshops • Include military personnel (the bulk of the current consumers) • Include other governmental personnel (future consumers) • Include academics (knowledge base) • Include contractors (the bulk of the tool builders) • Organize to address the questions (if you don’t ask, don’t expect answers) • Build more tools • “Duplication” is not bad when you don’t know very much (think of fly-offs) • Use multiple structures (System Dynamics, agent-based, discrete event simulation, spreadsheets, checklists, etc.) • Use multiple social theories (who knows which one is better?) • Address different needs (planning, training, rehearsal, forecasting, analysis, operations support)

18. From the hills of East Tennessee Questions? • Dean Hartley • Hartley Consulting • DSHartley3@comcast.net