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Climate Change Adaptation: Progress on the E3 Network

Climate Change Adaptation: Progress on the E3 Network. 5 th EIONET workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation 30 June 2011. Bertrand Sudre - Office of the Chief Scientist European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

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Climate Change Adaptation: Progress on the E3 Network

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  1. Climate Change Adaptation: Progress on the E3 Network 5th EIONET workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation 30 June 2011 Bertrand Sudre - Office of the Chief Scientist European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

  2. European Environment and EpidemiologyE3 network Integrate environmental and epidemiological data Improved population health Public health action Essentialinformation Increasedunder-standing

  3. Inte-grate Merge E3 Analyse Inter-pret European Environment and Epidemiology : E3 network Epidemic intelligence and surveillance (ECDC, WHO) Environmental and land-use data (EEA, SEIS, EDEN,...) Demographic and socioeconomic data (Eurostat, ...) 3

  4. Specific aims of theE3 network • Enhancing analytic capability: link environmental data to surveillance data for trends and forecasts / for long-term adaptation to climatic and ecologic changes. • Enhancing and accelerating response capability: link environmental data to outbreak scenarios for efficient response. • Disseminate information: guide policy, practices, and other interventions. • Support public health research: relationship between disease and the environment. • Promote advance collaborations: EU agencies and other governmental and non-governmental organizations. • Inform and strengthen Member States: activities in preparing for the health impacts of climate change. 4

  5. Inte-grate Merge E3 Analyse Inter-pret Features of the E3 network Infectious diseases epidemiology Determinants Epi intelligence ID surveillance Meteorology Entomology Water quality Air quality Flora Fauna Geography/geology Satellite data SES data Demography Agriculture Land use Socio economic etc. 5

  6. Features and challenges of the E3 network • Provide rapid / easy access to environmental and epidemiologic data • Increase use of available data sets (long term view) • Analyze data across geographic and political boundaries and recognize disease trends • Link exposure-disease data : quantify magnitude of risk • Promote European standards for environmental / epi data • Provide quality control

  7. Improving EDEN Re-structure Re-organise

  8. E3 metadata processing E3 Metadata Tools MetadataBuilder MetadataTranslator MetadataCompiler Data providers Inspire directive march 2007 9

  9. Disseminate informationE3 Geoportal: prototype 10

  10. E3 GeoData: Examples of Eco-Climatic determinants

  11. E3 Data: Examples of socio-economic determinants 12

  12. E3 Geoportal: prototype 13

  13. E3 Proof Of Concept (EPOC) Studies • Objectives Illustrate how existing or future E3 archive/geo-data can be used in the areas of disease risk study, disease vector mapping and early warning. • Different potential uses of disease and environmental data. • On going assessment of selected diseases : • Leptospirosis • Salmonellosis • Vector BD : Mosquitoes • Tick borne disease : Tick borne encephalitis

  14. EPOC: Mosquitoes maps • Vector distribution maps, • using data held within the E3 archives, • are being refined and reprocessed to assess new ways of identifying areas (ecological niche) • into which Aedesalbopictus may spread from current distributions. Predicted future routes of spread of Aedesalbopictus: Details of Mahalanobis distance of Global model (Mahalanobis distance = the environmental distance between the two sets of points adjusted for the covariance of the variables). The MD images are stretched over a range of values to reveal areas of greatest similarity to presently occupied areas. River systems are the likely major spread routes in Europe .

  15. EPOC: Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) • The risk maps for southern Sweden (held within the E3 archives) are being used to investigate whether independent meteorological and other data sets can provide a basis for predictions. WILD BOAR

  16. E3 pilot study: TBE Risk and Increase in Spring Temperatures • Spring temperatures above certain thresholds promote disease transmission between ticks, which is one of several factors increasing disease risk. • Cumulative measures of spring temperatures between 7 and 10 degrees (cumulative day degrees, CCD) have been shown to differentiate between locations that are at high and low risk in the summer and autumn. • Ongoing development : evaluation of satellite estimations - prospective validation (intra-annual validation), and this model may have the potential to be used for warning system. 17

  17. E3 pilot study: TBE Risk and Increase in Spring Temperatures Red areas are predicted TBE presence (>+75% probability) NLDA for 1986-2007. Circles are cumulative day degrees values: green =low; yellow=medium; red=high 18

  18. E3 pilot studies : ? Added values • It is a prototype forecastingdisease model for Europe and climate sensitive diseases • Apply risk model to other members states in EU • Promote direct use of risk maps in public health (currently underutilized) • “knowledge – capacity – expertise” building • Promote network of excellence : collaboration with external partners and it is an example of interface/application for other projects 19

  19. Others related projects • Decision-making tool for climate change and food and waterborne diseases • Decision-making tool is based on mathematical models / different climate scenario • Risk assessment framework : quantitative approach based on a priori model (= combination of successive modules describing the transmission pathway) • DG CLIMA Clearinghouse website

  20. DG CLIMA Clearinghouse 21

  21. Others related projects • Decision-making tool for climate change and food and waterborne diseases • Decision-making tool based on mathematical models / different climate scenario : • Risk assessment framework : quantitative approach based on a priori model (combination of successive modules describing the transmission pathway) • DG CLIMA Clearinghouse website • Health indicators for Climate Change report EEA 2012 • Health indicators i.e : • Aedes albopictus suitabilitymap • Tick borne disease : Borreliosis (Lyme disease) • Food and water borne diseases • ...

  22. ECDC : • Office of chief scientist • Health Impact Section • Jan Semenza • Bertrand Sudre • Jonathan Suk • E3 : ECDC – EDEN project • EPOC studies : ECDC sections - Oxford university – ERGO – AVIA GIS • Impact of Climate Change on Food- and Water-borne Infectious Diseases in Europe • Decision-making tool : RIVM (NL) – DG Clima Clearinghouse - EEA • Health indicators for Climate change report EEA 2012 : ECDC experts – Health Impact Section

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