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Chapter 10

Chapter 10. Pursuing Security. Thinking About Security. The Nature of Security. Drama and Dialogue of Insecurity Critiquing the drama. Conflict and Insecurity: The Traditional Road. War: The Human Record. Frequency Lower percentage of countries involved in international conflict

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Chapter 10

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  1. Chapter 10 Pursuing Security

  2. Thinking About Security

  3. The Nature of Security • Drama and Dialogue of Insecurity • Critiquing the drama

  4. Conflict and Insecurity: The Traditional Road

  5. War: The Human Record • Frequency • Lower percentage of countries involved in international conflict • Higher percentage of countries involved in civil conflicts • 30 percent of all wars have occurred in last 200 years • Severity • 75 percent of all war deaths have occurred since 1900

  6. The Causes of War • Force as a political instrument

  7. Diplomatic and Psychological Impacts of Force • Spiralling insecurity • Temptation to use it • Expense (imperial overstretch thesis)

  8. Levels of Violence: From Intimidation to Attack • Backdrop to diplomacy • Supply source to another government or insurgency group • Overt threat against an opponent • Limited demonstration of violence • Direct use of force to defeat an opponent

  9. Effectiveness of Force • Measurement • Cost/benefit analysis • Goal attainment

  10. Conditions for successful use of force • Clearly defined, long-standing, and previously demonstrated commitment • Strong commitments, publicly announced by leaders • Military force used to counter other military force, not to control political events • Force used early and decisively instead of through extended threatening and slow escalation • Clearly established goals • Secure domestic support for actions and goals

  11. The Changing Nature of War • Technology has increased killing power • Nationalism has increased numbers and intensity of wars • Technology and nationalism have expanded scope of war • Strategy has changed • Power to defeat is the traditional goal • Power to hurt increasingly important

  12. Classifying Wars • Local • Regional • Strategic nuclear conflict

  13. Local Conflict • Arms Transfers • Destination and sources • Mostly to LDCs • Mostly from EDCs • After end of cold war, sales to LDCs decreased; United States became largest supplier

  14. Motives • Supply allies during peacetime • Intervene in conflict • Gain diplomatic influence over recipient • Keep arms industry operating to preserve defense production infrastructure • Profit

  15. Dangers to importing countries • Instability leads to arms sales, which leads to more instability • Cost of weapons diverts funds from domestic programs

  16. Dangers to suppliers • Moral corruption • Identification with recipient can lead to higher involvement • Possibility of facing one's own weapons (black market) • Hard to persuade others not to do what you are doing

  17. Covert Intervention and Terrorism • Increase in civil strife • Use of guerilla tactics • Growth of international terrorism • World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks • Possible solutions • Success of terrorism

  18. Direct Military Intervention • High costs • Possibility of failure • Possibility of escalation • Questionable legitimacy

  19. Regional Conflict • Avoiding unchecked escalation • Keep communication open • Limit goals • Restrict geographical scope • Observe target restrictions • Limit weapons • NBCs

  20. Strategic Nuclear War • The Continuing Role of Nuclear Weapons • Backdrop to power

  21. How a Nuclear War Might Start • Irrational leader • Unprovoked attack • Last-gasp defense • Accident • Error of judgment • Escalation • Multipath scenarios

  22. Strategic Nuclear Weapons and Strategy • Fundamental goals determining selection of weapons • Minimize chance of war • Maximize chance of survival

  23. Deterrence • Capability • Credibility • MAD versus NUT strategies

  24. International Security: The Alternative Road

  25. Domestic Security Mechanisms • Norms against violence • Security forces • Disarmament • Conflict-resolution

  26. International Security • Unlimited self-defense • Limited self-defense through arms control

  27. Arms limitations: Numerical restrictions • SALT I & II • START I & II

  28. Development • Antiballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty • Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) • Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)

  29. Deployment • Anti-Personnel Mine (APM) Treaty

  30. Arms Reductions • Categorical restrictions • Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty

  31. Nonproliferation • Transfer restrictions • Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)

  32. Barriers to Arms Control • Security Barriers

  33. Caution about the current political climate • End of cold war offers opportunity to reduce arms • Realists not persuaded to abandon military approach • Cannot predict future U.S.-FSRs relationship • Increased Chinese power • Proliferation of “weapon states”

  34. Caution about the claimed contributions of arms control • Realists doubt that arms set off an arms race • Skeptics doubt that reducing arms will increase security

  35. Technical Barriers • How to compare weapons systems • Verification difficulties • Break-out cheating • Creep-out cheating • On-site inspection • Absolute versus adequate verification

  36. Domestic Barriers • National pride • Military spending and the economy • Arguments that it hurts the economy • Arguments that it helps the economy

  37. International Security Forces: National and International Security • Defining security • Organizing security • Global • UN • Regional • Organization for Security and cooperation in Europe (OSCE) • Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)

  38. International Security: Evolution of an Idea

  39. Collective Security: Similar to domestic law enforcement • Force used only in self-defense • Peace is indivisible • Unite to halt aggression and restore peace

  40. UN peacekeeping: Passive/reactive • Most efforts in LDCs • In the past, used military contingents from smaller, nonaligned powers • With the end of the cold war, increasing UN security role for larger powers

  41. UN peacemaking • More aggressive posture • Barriers • Lack of financial support

  42. International security and the future • Frustrations with UN • Controversy • May be a necessity

  43. Abolition of war • Disarmament • General and complete disarmament (GCD) • Unilateral • Negotiated • Pacifism • Universal • Private • Antiwar

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