Update on Global Challenges Bled Forum 2007

1. Update on Global Challenges Bled Forum 2007 Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project www.stateofthefuture.org

2. Just 25 years ago, there was no Internet and World Wide Web In the year 1982: • What Ministries of Education had Internet and personal computers in their long-range plans? • Would economists have believed that millions of people would search billions of pages in less than one second, and then do it again in the next few seconds AT NO additional cost?

3. Just 25 years ago, there was no • European Union, WTO, ICC, or NATO in Eastern Europe • Talk of globalization, genetically modified food, stem cells, or AIDS pandemic • Asymmetrical warfare, and • … and most believed that a nuclear WW IIIwould have destroyed the world by now

5. The Future will be more…than most people we think • Factor to consider: Self-fulfilling Moore’s law and R&D Managers • The factors that made such changes are changing faster now, than 25 years ago • Therefore, the next 25 years should make the speed of change over the last 25 years seem slow • This acceleration and volume of change…SHOULD change what we believe is possible for the next 25 years

6. What we think is “Far Out” today, could be very possible by 2032. • The race to connect anything not yet connected • Lines of genetic code written like software code • More than half the world spends more than half its time in cyberspace being more “real” that 3D reality • Life extension begins to look like a realistic option • Improving intelligence as central educational objective. • "just in time knowledge” becomes normal • Nano, bio, infotech and cognitive science (NBIC) • A global brain(s) emerging from Internet • …evolving into Conscious-Technology

7. Conscious-Technology (Post-Information Age) When the distinction between these two trends becomes blurred, we will have reached the Post-Information Age HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT 2030 2015 2000 1985

8. Simplification of History and an Alternative Future

9. Millennium Project Global Challenges Assessment 1996-97 15 Issues with 131 Actions 182 Developments 1999-2007 Global Challenges • General description • Regional views • Actions • Indicators 15 Challenges with 213 Actions 1998-99 & Distilled Into 1997-98 15 Opportunities with 213 Actions 180 Developments 2000-2007 State of the Future Index (SOFI) National SOFIs SOFI Real Time Delphi

10. 15 Global Challenges How can sustainable development be achieved for all? 1 How can sustainable development be achieved for all? How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? 2 How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? 15 How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? 3 How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 4 How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? 14 How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? 5 How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? 13 How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 6 How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? 12 How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? 7 11 How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? 10 8 How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? 9

11. Report Card for the world • Where are we winning? • GDP per capita grew • Calories per capita increased • Life expectancy grew • Literacy grew • Infant Mortality dropped • Access to Fresh Water improved • Access to Health Care improved • School Enrollment Improved • Where are we losing? • CO2 emissions grew • Unemployment increased • Forest Lands dropped • Rich Poor Gap grew • AIDs Deaths grew • Developing Country Debt increased • Terrorist Attacks more diverse

12. Europe’s Aging population, high unemployment and social benefits – a suggestion… • Transition from seeking jobs to seeking markets - how: • Identify and create a community of ‘retired’ Europeans making a living via Internet who help in the transition • Collective Intelligence increases choices for “second chance” or “retired” people AND second chance people will increase the collective intelligence.

13. Suggestions for European Initiatives • International Science & Technology Organization (ISTO) • Global S&T Fund for necessary research not likely by other means (Carbon Sequestration, Space Solar Power, etc)

14. The Millennium Project ... is a new kind of think tank

15. It is Global... • Geographically • Institutionally • Disciplinarily • Research focus

16. UN Universities Organizations Governments Corporations NGOs Millennium Project … May become a TransInstitution

17. Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training. Helsinki Montréal/Kinston Berlin London Calgary Moscow Paris Prague Seoul Washington, DC Rome Baku Silicon Valley Tehran Tel Aviv Tokyo Istanbul Mexico City Cairo Beijing New Delhi Kuwait Madurai Caracas Cyber Node Sao Paulo Brisbane/ Pretoria/Johannesburg Buenos Aires Sydney

18. 125 Pages in Print 5,400 Pages in the CD

19. Futures Research Methodology V2.0 1. Introduction & Overview 15. Simulation and Games 2. Environmental Scanning 16. Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Int. 3. Delphi 17. Normative Forecasting 4. Futures Wheel 18. S&T Road Mapping 5. Trend Impact Analysis 19. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) 6. Cross-Impact Analysis 20. Text Mining for Technology Foresight 7. Structural Analysis 21. Agent Modeling 8. Systems Perspectives 22. SOFI 9. Decision Modeling 23. SOFI Software 10. Statistical Modeling 24. The Multiple Perspective Concept 11. Technological Sequence Analysis 25. Tool Box for Scenario Planning 12. Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis 26. Causal Layered Analysis 13. Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios 27. Integration, Comparisons, and 14. Participatory Methods Frontiers of Futures Research Methods

20. For Further Information: Jerome C. Glenn, Director Millennium Project American Council for the UN University JGLENN@IGC.ORG WWW.ACUNU.ORG