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Exercise with GeNIe

Exercise with GeNIe. Fuzzy Systems Lifelog management. Outline. Usage of the GeNIe tool How to design DBNs Homework. Usage of the GeNIe tool. GeNIe: Creating the DBN. Creating the Bayesian network Activating the temporal pane Adding temporal arcs Setting the temporal probabilities.

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Exercise with GeNIe

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  1. Exercise with GeNIe Fuzzy SystemsLifelog management

  2. Outline • Usage of the GeNIe tool • How to design DBNs • Homework

  3. Usage of the GeNIe tool GeNIe: Creating the DBN • Creating the Bayesian network • Activating the temporal pane • Adding temporal arcs • Setting the temporal probabilities

  4. Usage of the GeNIe tool Creating the Bayesian Network

  5. Usage of the GeNIe tool Activating the Temporal Pane

  6. Usage of the GeNIe tool Adding Temporal Arcs

  7. Usage of the GeNIe tool Setting the Temporal Probabilities

  8. How to design DBNs Designing Stages • Problem definition • Relationship analysis • Model selection & design • Evaluation

  9. How to design DBNs Problem Definition • Example: Playingsoccer • Domain analysis • I usually play soccer on Tuesday • I play soccer once a week • When it rains or rained yesterday, I don’t play soccer • When there is any outdoor schedule, I rarely play soccer • When there is a match with other department, I try to play soccer … • Variables • Target • PlaySoccer: play, not_play • Observation • Weather: fine, rain, cloudy, snow • Schedule: free, indoor_schedule, outdoor_schedule • DayofWeek: Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. Thursday, Friday, Saturday • MatchType: regular, big_match, no_match …

  10. How to design DBNs Relationship Analysis • Static relationship • Tuesday  play • rain  not_play • outdoor schedule  not_play • big_match  play • Dynamic relationship • rain(yesterday)  not_play • play(1-6daysago)  not_play

  11. How to design DBNs Model Selection & Design • 1st order Markov process  Information loss • Free model  Higher complexity • Design of conditional probability tables

  12. How to design DBNs Evaluation • Example 1 • Situation • PlaySoccer(1-6): not_play • Weather(yesterday): fine • Weather(today): fine • Schedule: indoor_schedule • DayofWeek: Wednesday • MatchType: regular • Inference result • play: 91% • not_play: 9% • Discussion • Variable design: Statistical variable for history • Time-scale design: Min., Sec.?  dependent on the problem • Example 2 • Situation • PlaySoccer(yesterday): play • Weather(yesterday): fine • Weather(today): fine • Schedule: indoor_schedule • DayofWeek: Wednesday • MatchType: regular • Inference result • play: 34% • not_play: 66%

  13. Homework • Title: Personal life-activity modeling with DBNs • Problem • Select 5 most frequent and representative activities • Determine 10 environmental factors related with the activities • Design DBNs based on the personal life style • Experiment with 3 artificially-designed scenarios • Each scenario should be designed for a day consisting of the 5 activities • Presentation • Describe how to solve the problem for each step • Show the change of probability for each scenario • Due date: Next Tuesday • Download: http://genie.sis.pitt.edu

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