1 / 17

Scenario development for policy analysis: experiences in Europe and the Netherlands

Scenario development for policy analysis: experiences in Europe and the Netherlands. G.H. Martinus ECN Policy Studies, The Netherlands. Introduction. Europe Cascade Mints (Introduction of hydrogen) Medium- and Long-term policy scenarios Netherlands WLO Referentieramingen. PART 1.

tommy
Download Presentation

Scenario development for policy analysis: experiences in Europe and the Netherlands

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Scenario development for policy analysis: experiences in Europe and the Netherlands G.H. Martinus ECN Policy Studies, The Netherlands

  2. Introduction • Europe • Cascade Mints • (Introduction of hydrogen) • Medium- and Long-term policy scenarios • Netherlands • WLO • Referentieramingen EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  3. PART 1 PART 2 Modelling possible configurations of a hydrogen economy and using models to study its prospects Joint case studies on policy issues with operational energy models Coordinator: ECN Coordinator: NTUA Administrative Coordinator: NTUA Cascade Mints EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  4. CM Part II – background • Long term challenges for the energy sector • Environmental impacts • Security of supply • Acceptable costs • Global interactions • Key drivers for change • Economical growth • Availability of resources • Technological development • Infrastructure • Geopolitical situation • Policies • Preferences EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  5. CM Part II – objectives • Investigate the role of different policies in improving security of supply, reducing GHG emissions and fostering technological innovation • What will happen without intervention? • What room is available for policy intervention • Show consequences (energy mix, emissions, SoS, cost) • Analyse trade-offs and synergies on different policy issues • Enhance the communication between model experts and policy-makers • Build consensus among model experts EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  6. CM Part II – classification of models EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  7. CM Part II – baseline • Harmonization of drivers • IPCC B2 storyline • Resource prices (oil, coal, gas) • Economic growth • European policies (2003-2012, CO2 tax) • Depending on model type • Analysis of outcome (Europe, world) • Primary energy demand • Security of supply • Emissions EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  8. CM Part II – Final energy intensity EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  9. CM Part II – CO2 emissions EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  10. CM Part II – production mix in 2030 EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  11. CM Part II – key messages for Europe in 2030 • Energy consumption grows with some 20-25% in 2000-2030; dominated by fossil fuels • Increasing import dependency (up to 70%) • Uncertain: Power generation mix • Growers: natural gas and renewables (wind, biomass) • Decrease: oil • Large variety in the prospects for coal technologies and nuclear power • New Member States: increasing contribution from natural gas and renewables at expense of coal • Share of electricity in final demand increases; fastest growth in new Member States • Mixed message on CO2 due to increasing importance of natural gas EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  12. CM Part II - renewables • Phase: scenario construction • Focus: Europe, but world models contribute • Two approaches - Europe 2020, world 2050 • Use models according to strength • Several sub-questions • Technological developments • Impact on other important issues: employment, SoS, … • Interregional dependence: spill-overs, relative growth, … • Major scenario assumption: EU targets (12 and 20% of primary energy consumption in 2020) EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  13. Relation to questions at EEA • Baseline: harmonised view of business as usual • Scenarios for policy cases • Focus on technology (renewables,nuclear, and CCS) indicates routes to GHG-reduction • Actually ‘families’: variants to provide rich detail • Variety of models • Different modeling approaches with common framework to yield broad perspective • Insight into uncertainties EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  14. The Netherlands - WLO(Welfare and Physical Surroundings) • WLO: 4 long-term scenario’s on welfare, environment and spatial aspects (2040) for the Netherlands • Based on European scenarios (Four Futures) • CPB: Four futures for Energy Markets and Climate Change, http://www.cpb.nl/nl/pub/bijzonder/52/bijz52.pdf • In line with world storylines (IPCC) • Principal contributors: planning bureaus (CPB, MNP, RPB) • ECN subcontractor on scenario development concerning energy and CO2 EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  15. The Netherlands - WLO(Welfare and Physical Surroundings) • Main driving forces are developments of the EU; geopolitics; global trade; population; labour; public sector. • Basis for strategic policy analysis on technology development; agriculture; transport and infrastructure; spatial planning; environment; energy etc. • Energy and CO2 (except the transport part) is now drafted. • WLO will probably be completed in spring 2005 EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  16. The Netherlands- RR • Referentieraming (Reference Projection): developments 2010/2020 • Provides a reference for policies on future developments in the Netherlands • Reference for meeting policy targets • Benchmark for alternative/additional policies • Analyse effectiveness of policies • Large level of sectoral and technological detail • WLO provides background and long-term framework for RR • RR will be completed in december 2004 EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

  17. Relevant websites • Cascade Mints • http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/cascade.html • Four futures for Europe, WLO: • http://www.cpb.nl/eng/ • Reference Projection (Referentieraming): • http://www.ecn.nl/ EEA, Copenhagen, June 28-29 2004

More Related