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Progress business foundation

ADVANCED EXPERT PANEL on„Future Trends in Knowledge Management and Decision Making in Autonomous Systems”Supported by the foresight project „Scenarios and DevelopmentTrends of the Selected Information Society Technologies until2025” co-financed by the ERDF within the Innovative Economy Operational Programme (POIG), Action 1.1.1

Progress & Business Foundation

Zakopane, May 1, 2012


Progress business foundation

PANELISTS:

Prof. Włodzisław Duch, Toruń University

Prof. Janusz Kacprzyk, Systems ResearchInstitute, Warsaw

Prof. Ignacy Kaliszewski, Systems ResearchInstitute, Warsaw

Prof. Antoni Ligęza, AGH University, Kraków

Prof. KaisaMiettinen, University of Jyvaskyla

Prof. Andrzej M. Skulimowski (moderator), ICDSF & AGH University, Kraków

… (tbc)


Progress business foundation

Highlights:

  • Thediscussion will be preceded by a shortpresentation of theforesightprojectmethodology and itsresultsachieved so far (5-10 minutes)

  • About ten hot topicsfromwithinthescope of the Panel will be discussed by thePanelists, withcontributionsfromtheAudience (5-8 minuteseach)

  • It will follow a short general discussion (10-15 minutes) on thefuture of AI

  • Afterthe Panel: allparticipants will be invited to an expert Delphi related to thetopics of the Panel


Progress business foundation

  • DecisionSupportProspectsuntil 2025

  • Progress instructuringhumandecisionsuntil 2025:- newkind of theoreticalmodels?- betterunderstanding of neuraldecisionmechanisms (mirror neurons and…?)- non-stationarity of humanpreferences- copingwithinconsistency and irrationality

  • Cognitive MCDM?

  • DSS inthecloud, mobile DSS, recommenders- Electronic PersonalPreferenceRecord (EPR)?- Privacyprotectionissues- Fusion of allone’spreferenceinformationgathered by differentwebagents

  • MCDM-basedintelligentrecommenders

  • New DSS architectures?


Progress business foundation

  • Future Applications of Direct Brain Interfaces(Direct BCI, D-BCI) in DecisionSupport Systems (DSS)

  • D-BCI and ‚Internet of Brains’

  • The role of enhancedreality in decisionmaking

  • Virtual realitiescreated with D-BCI and simulation of consequences of decisionsmade

  • Whatkind of decisionsmay be supportedusing BCI?

  • D-BCI for operationaldecisions (eg. control of complex industrial and transport systems)

  • Military DSS with D-BCI

  • Supportingeverydays’ decisionmaking (directinterface

  • Time perspective: 2020?, 2025?, 2030?


Progress business foundation

  • Applicationprospects of external (no implants) BCI and PhysiologicalHuman Computer Interfaces (PHCI)

  • Applications of BCI to man-machinecommunication

  • Applications of BCI invirtual reality and games (trends?, market estimations?)

  • Thoughtrecognition by external BCI (technologicaltrends?, privacychallenges?, otherthreats?)

  • Reading, recording, and recognition of short-termhumanmemory – applicationsinelderlyamnesia

  • Reading, recording, and recognition of long-term humanmemory – applicationsintherapy of post traumaticstressdisordersymptoms, such as amnesia

  • Novel PHCI technologies and mechanisms (recognition of mimics, eye and eyelidmovements, skin thermal potentials etc.)

  • Applicationsin mobile DSS


Progress business foundation

  • Commonapplication of autonomic mobile robots (AMR)

  • Mainfunctionalities of autonomous mobile robots

  • Researchrobots

  • Personalroboticcompanionsvs. intelligentbuildings

  • Industrial applications of autonomous mobile robots

  • Maintechnicalproblems(hardware and lower-level software such as hardware drivers and communication software)

  • Mainissuesreleted to theintelligentdecision software development

  • Cellular mobile robots (standard simplerobotscapable of creating ad hoc specializedcomplexorganisms)


Progress business foundation

  • Autonomousflyingrobots (UAV)

  • UAV prospectsuntil 2025: - no moremannedcombataircraft?- first unmannedpassengeraircraft

  • Spacerobots

  • UAV swarms

  • Progress in robot vision and other sensory perceptionmechanisms for UAV (cognitive radar etc.)

  • Autonomousrobots, but to whichextent?


Progress business foundation

  • Worldwide monitoring systems

  • Automatic recognition of dangeroussituations

  • A newdirection of development: Citizens’ monitoring? (decentralized monitoring systems serving a community thatmanagesthem)

  • Global CBIR (on theweb, fromdifferentground- and air-based monitoring systems)

  • Global satellite-based monitoring systems

  • Integration of monitoring systems

  • Privacyissues


Progress business foundation

  • Mergingknowledgeacquisition, vision and rulebased systems

  • Trendsinrule-basedimageunderstanding

  • Theemergence of tailoredknowledgebases to facilitateimageanalysis and understanding

  • Automatic medicalimageunderstanding systems (CT, USG, NMR, PET etc.)

  • Remotepatient monitoring and multidimensional data fusion

  • Mergingallkinds of medicalinformation: data management and privacyprotectionissues

  • New developmentsinuncertainty management

  • Trendsinrule-baseddiagnostic systems: technologies, tera-ruledatabases, applications


Progress business foundation

  • Hot topicsinmachineintelligence and neurocognitive systems

  • Machineconsciousness and machineanticipatorycapabilities

  • How to managethedecisionfreedominautonomous systems?

  • Machinecreativity and imagination

  • Preference transfer problem (how to transfer and updateone’spreferences to an AADS efficiently and reliably? )

  • Hierarchy of goals and conflicts of interestsbetween AADS. How to solvethem?

  • Roboticsocieties and co-evolution


Progress business foundation

  • Towards a human- or machine-intelligence-centered civilization?

  • HCT (= human centered technologies)development prospects

  • How humans will be changed by technology - confluence of humans and computers(in a bit broadersensethan BCI)

  • Will the virtual realities develop towards a Matrix – will the computer addictsfacilitatethisprocess?

  • Will we need a roboticrevoltor a webrebellion?


Progress business foundation

  • Disruptive civilization?technologies, wildcards, uncertainties

  • Examples of unexpectedtechnological trend changesfromthe past

  • Low-probabilityhigh-impact scientific discoveries: ….

  • Low- to medium-probabilitybiological, economic and socialphenomena

  • Medium- to high-probabilitydisruptivepolitical and natural events (natural and anthropogenicdisasters)


Progress business foundation

Thank you for your participation! civilization?

Everybody is invited

- To take part in the Delphi research on this panel’s topics

The questionnaires and more info can be found at:http://www.ict.foresight.pl/user/index.php?module=delphi

- To take part at the Final Conference (no registration fee) to be held in Kraków on October 26, 2012