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Maurice Kugler HDRO

Maurice Kugler HDRO. 2 nd Conference on Measuring Human Progress 4-5 March 2013, New York. 2010 ADJUSTMENTS OF THE HDI The same dimensions but New indicators: Expected years of schooling, Mean years of schooling Gross national income New functional form Geometric mean

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Maurice Kugler HDRO

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  1. Maurice KuglerHDRO 2nd Conference on Measuring Human Progress 4-5 March 2013, New York

  2. 2010 ADJUSTMENTS OF THE HDI • The same dimensions but • New indicators: • Expected years of schooling, Mean years of schooling • Gross national income • New functional form • Geometric mean • Normalization based on data • Calculated for 187 countries in 2011 (compared to 177 in 2009)

  3. GNI Definition (2011 HDR): “GNI per capita based on constant 2005 international $” • From World Bank: -GNI in current international $ -GDP in current international $ -GDP in constant 2005 international $ NB: GNI in constant international $ only available for a subset of countries • HDRO: -Estimates GNI in constant 2005 international $ by using GDP real/nominal factors -For 2005, GNI in constant 2005 international $ is the same as GNI in current international $

  4. From IMF WEO: -Projection of GDP in current international $ for 2011, 2012,… -Growth rates of real GDP • HDRO: Estimates GNI in constant 2005 international $ for 2011 and 2012 by applying growth rates derived from GDP in current international $

  5. EYS UNESCO’s Institute for Statistics – Expected Years of Schooling Definition: “The total number of years of schooling a child of certain age can expect to receive in the future, assuming that the probability of his/her being enrolled in school at any particular age is equal to the current enrolment ratio for that age” 2011 HDR: #16 countries had EYS>16 # 3 countries had EYS >18 # 1 country had EYS >20 Reasons Capping at 18

  6. FUNCTIONAL FORM PROS AND CONS • Geometric mean advantages: • Imperfect substitutability • Rewards balance • Critiques: • Lack of subgroup decomposability • “Troubling” trade-offs: - HDI is a capability index, not a utility function. • Asymmetric treatment income (logged): means, not end. • HDI as an ordinal index, not cardinal.

  7. NORMALIZATIONS • Natural zeroes: • Are $100 per year for per capita GNI, 20 years for life expectancy and 0 mean years of schooling sensible lower bounds? • Engage in normative discussion to diminish ad-hocness! • Upper bounds: - Constantly shifting normative structure based purely on data changes is misleading - Aspirational levels ought to be discerned normatively from first principles if possible • Revision frequency: - As data fluctuate and upper bounds are updated annually, there are unsubstantiated ranking variations from year to year. - Infrequent revisions, 5-10 years apart, aid consistency.

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