Climate change impacts and adaptation: An international perspective

1. Climate changeimpacts and adaptation:An international perspective Chris Field Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecology www.global-ecology.org

2. Evolving perspectives on impacts • Developing concepts on the role of the IPCC • Adaptation in the response portfolio

3. IPCC AR4 - 2007 • Hundreds of top scientists • Comprehensive assessment • Multi-stage, broad-based, monitored review • Plenary approval line-by-line, by governments

4. Findings of the AR4 • Warming is unequivocal • Most warming over last 50 years very likely due to human influences

5. Findings of the AR4: 2 • Warming will continue • “No policy” range for 2100 • Lowest scenario: 1.1-2.9˚C • Highest scenario: 2.0-5.4˚C WG1 SPM p13

6. Findings of the AR4: 3 • Damages from climate change • $3 to $95 per ton CO2 • 2030 costs of CO2 stabilization • 3% of GDP to a net benefit for GDP WG3 SPM p11

7. Findings of the AR4: 4 • “Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised.” WG1 SPM p 16

8. Findings of the AR4 • Wide range of documented impacts • Vast regional variation • Vulnerability linked to poverty, health, institutions, governance

9. The “standard” model Impacts Modified from Meehl et al. IPCC 2007 (AR4 WG1, Ch 10) p 753

10. The “standard” model Forcing Impacts Modified from Meehl et al. IPCC 2007 (AR4 WG1, Ch 10) p 753

11. The “revised” model Feedbacks Impacts Modified from Meehl et al. IPCC 2007 (AR4 WG1, Ch 10) p 753

12. Forcing How do actual emissions compare with the scenarios explored in the IPCC AR4?

13. Fossil intensive, industrialized Advanced technology, industrialized Diversified, local solutions Based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2000

14. 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Anthropogenic C Emissions: Fossil Fuel 2007 Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C [Total Anthrop.Emis.:8.5+1.5 = 10.0 Pg] • 1990 - 1999: 0.9% y-1 • 2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al 2007, PNAS, updated at http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbontrends/index.htm

15. Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS

16. Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS (with 2006 and 2007 from CDIAC)

17. Finding the mechanism Population size Per capita GDP Carbon intensity Of economic activity

18. Anthropogenic C Emissions: Carbon Intensity of GDP World, including 2006 Factor (relative to 1980) Emissions Population Wealth = per capita GDP Carbon intensity of DGP Raupach et al. Biogeosciences 2008

19. Forcing • Recent emissions were at or above the trajectory of the full range explored in the AR4 • High recent emissions mostly due to rapid economic growth • Climate on a trajectory that has not been explored

20. Feedbacks Are climate responses of the land and oceans acting to intensify or suppress climate changes?

21. Feedbacks Are climate responses of the land and oceans acting to intensify or suppress climate changes?

22. Feedbacks Are climate responses of the land and oceans acting to intensify or suppress climate changes?

23. Feedbacks: Permafrost • 10.5 x 106 km2, 24% of N Hemisphere land surface • “Modeled” dramatic loss by 2100 • 4 x 106 km2 remain under B1 • 1 x 106 km2 remain under A2 • Permafrost carbon • 500 Pg yedoma • 1100 Pg non-yedoma, non-peat • 60 Pg peat bogs Lawrence & Slater GRL 2005, Zimov et al. Science 2005, Tarnocai et al. JGR 2009

24. Feedbacks: Permafrost • Yedoma sediments • Pleistocene roots • Highly decomposable • Deep exposure from thermokarst erosion • Up to 30% released as CH4 Zimov et al. Science 2006, Walter et al. Science 2006, Schuur et al. BioScience 2008

25. Feedbacks • Dynamic coupling between climate and permafrost carbon cycle not included in AR4 results

26. In sum • Rapid emissions growth since 2000 • May add 50 PgC or more to required reductions • Thawing permafrost releases CO2 and CH4 • May add 100-750 PgCe to required reductions

27. Needs for adaptation • Climate change continues, even if CO2 emissions stabilize • Lack of progress in limiting emissions • Continued skepticism about the costs of large reductions

28. WG2 in the AR5:Beyond lists lists

29. Table TS.3. (lower) Examples of global impacts projected for changes in climate (and sea level and atmospheric CO2 where relevant) IPCC AR4 WG2 TS

30. AR5: Opportunities • Multi-stressor environment • Risk management • Supporting good decisions • Adaptation • Beyond generalities • Costing • Common framework for impacts, adaptation, and mitigation • Take advantage of full range of available knowledge

31. Adaptation in the arc of the IPCC 100% climate-change 100% multi-stress impact Early warning Protective structures Activity shifting Effective responses Win-win strategies Multi-stress solutions Early warning Protective structures Activity shifting Effective responses AR4 AR5

34. Adaptation Adaptation Mitigation

35. Core issues for the AR5 • Boundary between adaptation and coping • Managing short-term responses to avoid long-term maladaption • Balancing development and sustainability • Contributing to Millennium Development Goals • International dimensions

36. International dimensions • CAM: an adaptation analog to the CDM? • Perspectives on moving and activity switching? • Interactions with security and conflict?