The emerging skills shortage in the minerals industry - potential constraints on future sustainable development

1. The emerging skills shortage in the minerals industry - potential constraints on future sustainable development John Thompson

2. Outline Mining Industry – changes and challenges People – demographics and demand Exploration – geoscientists and skills Area selection Target generation and testing Evaluation and development Critical skills – concerns Constraints on development Opportunities

3. Industry – the last ten years The resurgence of the resource business Supply-demand – high commodity prices Opportunities and challenges: Markets – capital and consolidation Discovery Cost escalation Technology Politics, environment, health and safety, communities - sustainability

4. Supply – demand • Supply constraints • Low discovery rate – relative to expenditure • Limited effective grass roots exploration, technical challenges, land access, people • Cost escalation – materials, energy, labour • Development & mining – labour, skills • Politics and social/cultural issues • Demand • China, India etc…. Future? Sustained prices? Volatility

5. The people picture • Demand • New projects and expansions • Limited hiring – a lost decade • Demographics • “Retirements” – loss of knowledge • Job pressure – early retirement, life style • Competition • Location • Image

6. Exploration – people skills • The role of the geoscientist • Early stage – generation • Projects – evaluation • Business – management

7. Early stage – Generation • Understanding the target – metallogeny • Using available public data • Developing the concept • Testing the concept • Acquiring the “right” data

8. Project exploration • Target definition • Intelligent collection and use of data • Target testing – drilling • Logging drill core/chips • Interpreting results • Exit strategy

9. Understanding the model • Classic 2D geological models • Extrapolation to 3D • Building from experience • Resisting dogma – dealing with uncertainty • Empirical v theoretical models • e.g., IOCG – major deposit class but no adequate exploration model

10. Data and modeling Targeting: Data quality Variables Assumptions

11. Interpretation 3D Models: • Organize & integrate data • Interrogate & visualize results

12. Project development • Communities • Resource evaluation • Geometallurgy • Mining and processing • Environment

13. Using the data • Exploration to resource • Understanding deposits • Delineation, evaluation • Resource model • Resource to mine • Geotechnical data • Ore characterization • Waste characterization Geometallurgy

14. Geometallurgy • Define mining/processing characteristics • Start-up risk mitigation • Mine site optimization and integration • Predict mining/processing results from geological characteristics • A new skill set using mineralogical and textural data

15. Data to Predictions

16. Geometallurgy • Current geometallurgical tests • Relatively expensive – hence limited to a few (composite) samples • May not reflect or define inherent variability • New cost-effective methods – better use of mineralogical, chemical and physical data • Generate enough data to be spatially representative and predictive

17. Geometallurgical models Incorporate data into resource models • Potential • Total economic optimization • Optimize flowsheet/plant size • Reduce technical risk Liberation Grinding Recovery Crushing Disposal & environment Blasting

18. Critical skills - concerns • Field • Observations – rock, drill core/chips, outcrops • Interpretation – regional to project scales • Experience – time on the rocks • Leadership • Technical and non-technical skills

19. Loss of field skills • Fundamental for exploration • Observations – outcrop to drill core • Experience – 3D interpretation • Lack of emphasis in education • Inadequate training - industry/government

20. Leadership • Challenges • Range of projects • Managing uncertainty • Risk analysis • Team leadership • Attributes and skills • Presentation and salesmanship • Cultural/social awareness • Determination and flexibility • A people business

21. Constraints on discovery & development • Discovery • People and budgets (market conditions) • Skills, expertise and determination • Politics – land access • Development • Land-politics, energy, water, and costs • People – mining engineering and metallurgy • Finding the “A” team • Creativity and rigour (geometallurgy!)

22. Constraints on different players • Majors • Good budgets – focus, speed, awareness? • Expertise and teams – commitment? • Approach/ability to work with juniors? • Juniors • Funding – understanding the options? • Staff – business and technical demands • Balanced portfolios • Breadth v focus – frontier v mature • Technical risk v non-technical risk

23. Opportunities • Companies • Attract and retain the right people • Use people in the right place • Career development and flexibility • Invest in education – build capacity • Universities • Provide fundamental education • Introduce breadth and application

24. For the geoscientist • Mining industry – • Enormous opportunities – career advancement • Adventure, diversity, challenge • Geoscientists are capable of anything • Quantitative and qualitative science • Interpret vast amounts of complex data • Deal with uncertainty • Work with people • Leaders – CEOs……