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General Session - The Big One. Robert J. Curry, FCAS Insurance Services Office. The Big One. Historical Hurricane Activity What’s Changed Hurricane -- What Ifs Historical EQ Activity EQ -- What ifs Mitigation http://www.iso.com/hurricane_experience/index.html.

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general session the big one

General Session - The Big One

Robert J. Curry, FCAS

Insurance Services Office

the big one
The Big One
  • Historical Hurricane Activity
  • What’s Changed
  • Hurricane -- What Ifs
  • Historical EQ Activity
  • EQ -- What ifs
  • Mitigation

http://www.iso.com/hurricane_experience/index.html

largest insured hurricanes 1949 1999
Largest Insured Hurricanes 1949-1999

Reported

RankYear NameLosses ($B)

1 1992 Andrew 15.5

2 1989 Hugo 4.2

3 1998 Georges 3

4 1995 Opal 2.1

5 1999 Floyd 2

Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services

what has changed
What has changed?
  • Population Growth
what has changed1
What has changed?
  • Population Growth
  • Inflation
  • Amount of Property per person
amount of property per person
Amount of Property per person
  • Size of new home has increased
      • 1645 square feet in 1975
      • 2190 square feet in 1998
  • % of homes with 4 + bedrooms
      • 21% in 1975
      • 33% in 1998
  • % of homes with 2 1/2 or more baths
      • 20% in 1975
      • 52% in 1998

source: US Department of census

largest insured hurricanes 1949 19991
Largest Insured Hurricanes 1949-1999

Adjusted RankYear NameLosses ($B)

1 1992 Andrew 22.9

2 1965 Betsy 7.4

3 1989 Hugo 7.4

4 1970 Cecelia 4.2

5 1998 Georges 3.1

hurricane what ifs
Hurricane -What Ifs
  • Hurricane Bret
  • Hurricane Gloria
  • Hurricane Andrew
hurricane bret
Hurricane Bret
  • In 1999 made landfall south of Corpus Christi
    • $30 million in damage
  • Made landfall in Galveston, Texas today?
  • Potential Modeled Losses => $11.6 Billion

Source: Applied Insurance Research, Inc.

hurricane gloria
Hurricane Gloria
  • In 1985 passed over Cape Hatteras, NC as a Cat 3 & made landfall in Long Island as Cat 2.
    • $400 million reported; $850 million adjusted
  • Made landfall in Long Island, NY as a Cat 4 today?
  • Potential Modeled Losses => $25 Billion

Source: Applied Insurance Research, Inc.

Source: Applied Insurance Research, Inc.

what if hurricane gloria
What if Hurricane Gloria…
  • Made landfall in Brooklyn, NY as a Cat 4 today?
  • Potential Modeled Losses => $39 Billion

Source: Applied Insurance Research, Inc.

hurricane andrew
Hurricane Andrew
  • What if storm like Andrew made landfall in downtown Miami today?
  • Potential Modeled Losses => $50 Billion

Source: Applied Insurance Research, Inc.

largest insured loss eqs since 1940
Largest Insured Loss EQs since 1940

Reported

RankYear NameLosses ($B)

1 1994 Northridge 12.9

2 1989 Loma Prieta 1.2

Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services

earthquakes what ifs
Earthquakes - What Ifs
  • 1886 Charleston, SC
  • 1906 San Francisco
  • 1811-12 New Madrid
1886 charleston eq
1886 Charleston EQ
  • M7.3 in Charleston SC
  • MMI 10
  • Estimated insured damage if happened today
    • $10 Billion

Source: Risk Management Solutions

1906 san francisco eq
1906 San Francisco EQ
  • 1906 San Francisco EQ
  • M8.3
  • Significant fire following damage
  • Estimated insured damage if happened today
    • $36 Billion

Source: Risk Management Solutions

1811 12 new madrid eq
1811-12 New Madrid EQ
  • 1811-12 => series of 4 EQs over 7 week period
  • MMI 10+
  • Estimated insured damage if happened today
    • $88 Billion

Source: Risk Management Solutions

mitigation efforts
Mitigation Efforts
  • BCEGS
    • Building Code Effectiveness Grading Schedule
  • Community graded based on
    • building code in force
    • enforcement of that code
  • Credits associated with better grade
  • 4,600 communities evaluated
  • approved in 48 states