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Modeling & Monitoring / Data Analysis

Modeling & Monitoring / Data Analysis. Joint Session RPO National Workgroup Meeting December 3, 2002, 1:00 - 3:00 Crown Plaza, Dallas, TX. Session Format. Guided, open discussion Focused on, but not limited to list of topics How we can/do use each others information

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Modeling & Monitoring / Data Analysis

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  1. Modeling & Monitoring / Data Analysis Joint Session RPO National Workgroup Meeting December 3, 2002, 1:00 - 3:00 Crown Plaza, Dallas, TX

  2. Session Format • Guided, open discussion • Focused on, but not limited to list of topics • How we can/do use each others information • Session notes will be sent to Discussion Group Leads within a week • 10 minute break at 1:55, if needed

  3. Discussion Topics • Monitor to model comparison • Species mapping • Spatial representation • Temporal issues • Supplemental measurements • Unexplained fine mass • Base year discussion • Open discussion / Q&A

  4. Model to Monitor Comparison • Species mapping • Base inventories are speciated in the emissions processing steps and are maintained through the photochemical modeling • Course/primary particles, aerosols, gasses • Specific species that are not commonly measured • Speciation is dependent on chemical mechanism • Examples provided by Kirk Baker follow

  5. Speciation for ModelsFull CB4 = CMAQ, CAMx-M4, PMCAMx Micro-CB4 = REMSADv7

  6. Model to Monitor Comparison • Species mapping • Photochemical model outputs are specific fields on an hourly basis. • How modeled and monitored species are compared depends on the specific specie(s) of interest • Examples provided by Kirk Baker follow

  7. Model to Monitor Comparison • Species mapping • Current questions • How to standardize species mapping • Are composite species being compared correctly • Are there monitoring (modeling) nuances that modeling (monitoring) should know • Are there supplemental observations available for comparison with non-standard species • Can modeling results be used to help make decisions on supplemental monitoring or special studies

  8. Model to Monitor Comparison • Spatial representation • Photochemical model output provides a value for a grid cell of some size • 36km x 36km 1296 km2 • 12km x 12km 144 km2 • 4km x 4 km 16 km2 • Methods include comparing monitored data to the value of the grid cell it is within, averages of surrounding grid cells, weighting schemes, etc.

  9. Model to Monitor Comparison • Spatial representation • Current questions • What spatial extent are monitors representing • Urban v. rural • Geographic differences • Types of monitors • Differences between species • Seasonal considerations • What are the best methods for comparing spatial information (modeled) with point measurements

  10. Model to Monitor Comparison • Temporal issues • Photochemical model output is hourly • Monitored data varies from continuous to 24-hour integrated samples taken every few days • Diurnal patterns help diagnose model performance and model representation of real world physical and chemical processes

  11. Model to Monitor Comparison • Temporal issues • Unrealistic to maintain a significant network of continuous, speciated monitors at this time • Modeling could utilize targeted short term supplemental measurements of continuous standard and non-standard measurements • Can preliminary model results be used to identify areas of interest such as chemical gradients, flow corridors, diurnal, seasonal, or specie specific areas of interest, for targeted supplemental monitoring • What can be learned from BRAVO, SAMI, OZZIE, etc.

  12. Supplemental Measurements • Are additional field studies being considered • Is it plausible to plan for short term, targeted continuous monitoring projects • What is available or planned for information above the surface level • Where and when would supplemental measurements make the most sense

  13. Unexplained Fine Mass • What is it? • How to account for in model to monitor comparison • Seasonality? • Diurnal pattern? • Can modeled moisture fields be of help

  14. Base Year Discussion • Current thought - 2002 • Most recent EI possible for regulatory modeling • Allows EI to focus efforts • More ambient data available (relatively) • Lacks new monitoring information currently coming on line • Scheduled time frame may be getting shortened • Any thoughts?

  15. Open Discussion / Q&A

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