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HAZARD MAPPING AND MODELING. SESSION 6: MODELING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS. OBJECTIVE 1. Clarify the nature of earthquakes as a hazard and their impacts.

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hazard mapping and modeling

HAZARD MAPPING AND MODELING

SESSION 6: MODELING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS

objective 1

OBJECTIVE 1

Clarify the nature of earthquakes as a hazard and their impacts

slide3

An earthquake is a natural event associated with movements on a global scale of tectonic plates and the rupture of faults on a regional scale as a result of that movement.

slide6

WEST

NORTH

Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Fault Rupture

slide7

WEST

NORTH

Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Mechanism

slide8

HURRICANES

FLOODS

EARTHQUAKES

CYCLONES

LANDSLIDES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

DROUGHT

LANDSLIDES

WILDFIRES

TSUNAMIS

NATURAL HAZARDS

ATMOSPHERIC

GEOLOGIC

HYDROLOGIC

floods vs earthquakes
Floods are the most frequent and most costly natural hazard on an annual basis in the United States, occurring in every state and territory and causing an average of $5 billion damage each year (Schildgen, 1999),

However, a single earthquake (e.g., the 1994 Northridge, California quake, has the potential for causing greater economic loss within a minute than floods do for an entire year.

FLOODS VS EARTHQUAKES
earthquakes like floods are a national problem
EARTHQUAKES, LIKE FLOODS, ARE A NATIONAL PROBLEM
  • 44 of the 50 states are at high to very high risk from earthquakes with nearly 200 million households and tens of trillions in property at risk. (FEMA 1997).
earthquakes
EARTHQUAKES
  • The moderate, large, and great earthquakes (i.e., magnitudes of 6 or greater) generate potential disaster agents that pose the greatest threat to society.
floods vs earthquakes12
FLOODS VS EARTHQUAKES
  • In the United States, earthquakes cause fewer fatalities than floods. On the average, fatalities from earthquakes are only about one-third of the 160 fatalities that floods cause annually (Schildgen, 1999; FEMA 1999).
floods vs earthquakes13
FLOODS VS EARTHQUAKES
  • Prediction and early warning systems are not yet reliable for earthquakes
floods vs earthquakes14
FLOODS VS EARTHQUAKES
  • Disaster mitigation measures (i.e., building codes, construction materials, and retrofit and strengthening) and preparedness measures (e.g., earthquake hazard maps and disaster planning scenarios) are significant factors in keeping the death toll for earthquakes low relative to that for floods in the United States.
class activity
CLASS ACTIVITY
  • Examine informative documents on seismicity and probabilistic maps of the ground shaking hazard to be downloaded from the USGS Web site
  • http://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazmaps
class activity16
CLASS ACTIVITY
  • Identify the significant historic earthquakes that have impacted your area of the United States.
  • Were you aware of these historic earthquake events?
class activity17
CLASS ACTIVITY
  • Describe the notable earthquakes that have impacted the Northeastern Coast, Southeastern Coast, Gulf Coast, or Western Coast of the United States?
  • How do they differ?
class activity18
CLASS ACTIVITY
  • Which coasts are most likely to experience tsunami wave run up?
  • Least prone?
  • Why?
class discussion
CLASS DISCUSSION
  • What is an earthquake and what factors influence the generation of earthquakes and their societal impacts?
class discussion20
CLASS DISCUSSION
  • What explanation do you have for the fewer numbers of earthquake fatalities in the United States as compared with fatalities in other countries?
objective 3

OBJECTIVE 3

Explain how an earthquake is measured

magnitude a measure of the size of an earthquake
MAGNITUDE- A MEASURE OF THE SIZE OF AN EARTHQUAKE
  • Magnitude is based on instrumental measurements devised in the 1930’s by the late Charles F. Richter.
magnitude a measure of the size of an earthquake23
MAGNITUDE- A MEASURE OF THE SIZE OF AN EARTHQUAKE
  • Magnitude is based on values derived from a global network of standardized instruments.
magnitude a measure of the size of an earthquake24
MAGNITUDE- A MEASURE OF THE SIZE OF AN EARTHQUAKE
  • The procedure for assigning a value of magnitude provides a standardized way to compare the size of one earthquake with another anywhere in the world.
moment magnitude a better measure
MOMENT MAGNITUDE – A BETTER MEASURE
  • The moment magnitude scale was devised in the 1980’s as an extension of the Richter scale.
moment magnitude a better measure26
MOMENT MAGNITUDE –A BETTER MEASURE

Moment magnitude enables scientists to characterize the great earthquakes (M > 8) more accurately.

the largest earthquakes
THE LARGEST EARTHQUAKES
  • The three largest earthquakes of the 20th and 21st centuries were assigned moment magnitudes: a) 9.5 Chile earthquake of 1960, b) the 9.3 Great Sumatra Earthquake of December 2004, and c) the 9.2 Alaska earthquake of 1964.
intensity a measure of the damage state
INTENSITY: A MEASURE OF THE DAMAGE STATE
  • Intensity is a subjective measure of the state-of-damage of a building at a site, ranging from:
  • 1) No damage
  • 2) Slight damage
  • 3) Moderate damage
  • 4) Severe damage
  • 5) Collapse
intensity a measure of the damage state29
INTENSITY: A MEASURE OF THE DAMAGE STATE
  • The value of intensity assigned to a damaged building is determined on the basis of observations, not instrumental measurements, of the nature and spatial distribution of the damage
intensity map of new madrid earthquakes
INTENSITY MAP OF NEW MADRID EARTHQUAKES
  • This map shows the range of MMI intensity values expected in future earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone.
intensity map of new madrid earthquakes31
INTENSITY MAP OF NEW MADRID EARTHQUAKES
  • Intensity VI denotes the threshold of liquefaction.
  • Intensity VII denotes the threshold for architectural damage.
intensity map of new madrid earthquakes32
INTENSITY MAP OF NEW MADRID EARTHQUAKES
  • Intensity VII denotes the threshold of structural damage.
  • Intensity IX - XI denotes levels of severe damage.
frequency of occurrence
FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE
  • The chance of a earthquake occurring at a specific location in a given interval of time can be estimated by plotting a graph of the number, N, of earthquakes known to have occurred within an area versus their magnitude, M, and determining empirically how often earthquakes of a particular size.
slide35

SESMIC SOURCES

RECURRENCE

ATTENUATION

PROBABILITY

EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT

class activity36
CLASS ACTIVITY
  • Go to the USGS Web site

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazmaps

class activity37
CLASS ACTIVITY
  • 1. Select the longitudes and latitudes bounding the area where you are located in the United States and download a USGS probabilistic ground shaking map for this area.
class activity38
CLASS ACTIVITY

2. Develop the data for determining the magnitude and intensity distribution of past earthquakes within a 300 mile radius from your area.

3. Is it easier to estimate the frequency of earthquakes per century or per year? Why?

national earthquake hazards reduction act public law 95 124
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act (Public Law 95-124)
  • Established in 1977, Public Law 95-124 provided a comprehensive basis for implementing seismic safety policy on mitigation, preparedness, emergency response, and recovery and reconstruction in the United States.
national earthquake hazards reduction act public law 95 12441
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act (Public Law 95-124)
  • The law calls for strategic actions to save lives and protect property and infrastructure, including:
  • Research into the basic causes and mechanisms of earthquakes.
national earthquake hazards reduction act public law 95 12442
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act (Public Law 95-124)
  • The law calls for strategic actions to save lives and protect property and infrastructure, including:
  • Development of methods to predict the time, place, magnitude, and probability of future earthquakes.
national earthquake hazards reduction act public law 95 12443
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act (Public Law 95-124)
  • The law calls for strategic actions to save lives and protect property and infrastructure, including:
  • Development of information and guidelines for zoning land use in light of seismic risk in all parts of the United States and preparation of seismic risk analyses useful for emergency planning and community preparedness.
national earthquake hazards reduction act public law 95 12444
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act (Public Law 95-124)
  • The law calls for strategic actions to save lives and protect property and infrastructure, including:
  • Undertaking studies of foreign experience with all aspects of earthquakes.
national earthquake hazards reduction act public law 95 12445
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act (Public Law 95-124)
  • The law calls for strategic actions to save lives and protect property and infrastructure, including:
  • Development of ways for state, county, local and regional governments to use existing and developing knowledge about the regional and local variations of seismic risk in making their land-use decisions.
national earthquake hazards reduction act public law 95 12446
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act (Public Law 95-124)
  • The law calls for strategic actions to save lives and protect property and infrastructure, including:
  • Development of tools for seismic hazard and risk assessments, including seismic zonation.
national earthquake hazards reduction program nehrp
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)
  • Public Law 95-124, as amended, is the legal mandate for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP).
  • NEHRP is an integrated national program of basic and applied research on the hazard, built, and policy environments and corresponding applications.
nehrp leadership
NEHRP LEADERSHIP
  • Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the lead agency, provided coordination until 2004.
  • National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) replaced FEMA as lead agency in 2004.
nehrp leadership49
NEHRP LEADERSHIP
  • United States Geological Survey (USGS) makes maps, conducts monitoring and basic research, and supports applied research in universities.
  • National Science Foundation (NSF) supports basic research in universities.
nehrp budget
NEHRP BUDGET

The annual budget for NEHRP is about $ 100 million.

nehrp post earthquake studies public law 101 614
NEHRP Post-earthquake Studies (Public Law 101-614 )
  • Since 1990, an explicit national mandate has existed for NEHRP to conduct interdisciplinary postearthquake studies of damaging national and notable international earthquakes.
  • The goal is to use each damaging event as a laboratory to learn.
class activity52
CLASS ACTIVITY
  • Go to the USGS Web site

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazmaps

class discusssion
CLASS DISCUSSSION

1. Download a national probabilistic ground shaking map.

2. Identify the date when the map was prepared.

class discusssion54
CLASS DISCUSSSION

3. Describe the physical parameter that is mapped.

4. What is the exposure time?

class discusssion55
CLASS DISCUSSSION

5. What is the probability of exceedance?

6. Do you believe that the map accurately reflects the nature of earthquakes in your area?

class discusssion56
CLASS DISCUSSSION

7. Has there been any residential, commercial or industrial development that might change earthquake risks?

8. Has there been any major construction of infrastructure that might change risks?

objective 5

OBJECTIVE 5

Provide examples of models used in examining the risk from earthquakes in the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

ground shaking hazard
GROUND SHAKING HAZARD
  • Ground shaking is characterized by two primary parameters, each varying as a function of magnitude, distance from the fault zone, and the properties of the local soil and rock: 1) acceleration time history, and 2) spectral acceleration.
map format
MAP FORMAT
  • The map format can be either probabilistic (PHSA) (PREFERRED), or deterministic (DHSA).
slide62

SESMIC SOURCES

RECURRENCE

ATTENUATION

PROBABILITY

CONSTRUCTING A PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MAP

constructing a phsa map
CONSTRUCTING A PHSA MAP
  • The first step is to choose one of the following parameters to map:
  • Intensity (Typically MMI values)
  • Peak ground acceleration (Typically PGA values)
  • Spectral acceleration (Typically 0.2 s period and/or 1.0 s period values)
constructing a phsa map64
CONSTRUCTING A PHSA MAP
  • The second step is to choose an appropriate scale for the application and prepare a grid of points (e.g., 0.05 degree latitude and longitude)
constructing a phsa map65
CONSTRUCTING A PHSA MAP
  • The third step is to add the layers of data, such as:
  • The geographic boundaries and cultural features of the community.
  • The fault systems.
  • The seismicity.
class discusssion67
CLASS DISCUSSSION

1. Explain the importance of assessing and insuring to distribute the earthquake risk in your community

2. Describe the steps that would be required for all businesses in your community to be self-insured.

objective 6

OBJECTIVE 6

Explain the basic elements of earthquake insurance

insurance
INSURANCE
  • The business of insurance, including life and health insurance, plays a major financial role in our society, making up about 15 percent of the national gross domestic product.
insurance70
INSURANCE
  • In the United States, there are over 3,000 insurance companies, most of which focus on a specific market or line such as auto, title insurance, health, or life.
law of large numbers
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
  • The insurance industry exists because of the “Law of large numbers.”
  • This law means that the average loss insurers will pay in claims will converge very quickly to a predictable number with low uncertainty as the number of claims increases.
insurance72
INSURANCE
  • Reinsurance companies help to spread the risk.
  • Reinsurance is the process by which one insurance company insures another insurance company as a strategy for controlling capacity.
class discusssion73
CLASS DISCUSSSION

1. Explain the importance of assessing and insuring to distribute the earthquake risk in your community

2. Describe the steps that would be required for all businesses in your community to be self-insured.

objective 7

OBJECTIVE 7

Explain the elements of risk.

slide75

HAZARDS

EXPOSURE

VULNERABILITY

LOCATION

ELEMENTS OF RISK

RISK

risk assessment
RISK ASSESSMENT
  • Risk assessment for earthquakes involves the probabilistic integration of interlinked parameters into a comprehensive risk model.
required information
REQUIRED INFORMATION
  • Location of active faults.
  • Geometry of the faults.
  • Regional tectonic setting.
  • Spatial and temporal characteristics of seismicity
required information78
REQUIRED INFORMATION
  • Rate of decay of seismic energy with distance from the point of fault rupture.
  • Magnitude, other source parameters, and geologic structure.
required information79
REQUIRED INFORMATION
  • The physical properties of shallow, near-surface soils.
  • Construction materials of the exposure (buildings and infrastructure)
building elements
BUILDING ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Single family dwellings.
  • Multiple family dwellings
building elements81
BUILDING ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Low-rise office and commercial buildings.
  • High-rise office and commercial buildings.
building elements82
BUILDING ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Industrial facilities and factories.
  • Government office buildings and related facilities (including embassies).
building elements83
BUILDING ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Schools, colleges, and universities.
  • Hospitals.
building elements84
BUILDING ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Historic buildings, monuments, museums, and other national treasures.
building elements85
BUILDING ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Police and fire stations.
  • Hotels and resorts.
building elements86
BUILDING ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Shopping malls.
  • Sports arenas and stadiums.
  • Parking structures.
infrastructure elements
INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Highways - The largest element of every community’s infrastructure inventory.
infrastructure elements88
INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Bridges.
  • Utility systems (i.e., gas electricity, water, wastewater, and telephone).
infrastructure elements89
INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Telecommunication systems.
  • Waterways, ports, and harbors.
infrastructure elements90
INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Dams and levees.
  • Fossil fuel and nuclear power plants.
infrastructure elements91
INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function and a dominant period of vibration..
  • Airports and related facilities.
  • Storage tanks for water and hazardous materials.
vilnerability of elements
VILNERABILITY OF ELEMENTS
  • Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) function..
  • An element’s vulnerability (fragility) to earthquake ground shaking is the result of flaws that enter during the planning, siting, design, construction, use, and maintenance of individual buildings and elements of infrastructure.
vulnerability
VULNERABILITY
  • An element’s vulnerability is related to:
  • Varying designs, ranging from non-engineered (e.g., a single-family dwelling) to engineered (e.g., a high-rise building).
vulnerability94
VULNERABILITY
  • Varying ages of construction, which also means varying editions of the building code.
vulnerability95
VULNERABILITY
  • Varying construction materials (e.g., wood, unreinforced masonry, unreinforced concrete, reinforced concrete, light metal, and steel).
vulnerability96
VULNERABILITY
  • Varying service lives (e.g., 30 years for the half-life of a class of buildings).
vulnerability97
VULNERABILITY
  • Varying usage functions(e.g., the functions represented by single family dwellings, multiple family dwellings, high-rise buildings, government centers, commercial buildings, industrial facilities, schools, hospitals, and places of public assembly).
vulnerability98
VULNERABILITY
  • Varying levels of public and private use, which varies with the time of day, holidays, and seasons of the year.
vulnerability99
VULNERABILITY
  • Varying configurations (i.e., elevations and floor plans).
risk reduction
RISK REDUCTION
  • Reliable risk assessments are essential for good decision making on local, regional, state, and national levels to reduce the risk towards more acceptable levels
risk reduction101
RISK REDUCTION
  • The community can control and reduce its perceived risks by implementing public policies such as insurance, building codes, lifeline standards, and retrofit and rehabilitation.
objective 8

OBJECTIVE 8

Clarify the capabilities and levels of analysis of the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Program

hazus earthquake
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
  • The HAZUS-MH Earthquake Program is a comprehensive, state-of-the-art, lossestimation methodologythat was established in the early 1900’s as the standard for earthquake loss estimation by governments in earthquake-prone regions of the United States.
hazus earthquake104
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
  • More than 137 earthquake and software professionals contributed to the development of the program through working groups, oversight groups, pilot studies in Boston, MA and Portland, OR, and calibration studies combining unprecedented data and experience.
hazus earthquake105
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
  • Loss estimation for earthquakes involves the probabilistic integration of interlinked parameters of the community’s hazard and built environments into a comprehensive risk model.
hazus earthquake interdisciplinary team
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM
  • The community at risk should form a team comprised of:

1. Geologist (s), from state geological survey

2. Seismologist (s), from university

3. Structural engineer (s)

4. Geotechnical engineer (s)

hazus earthquake interdisciplinary team107
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM

5. Economist (s) – finance officers

6. Sociologist(s)

7. Emergency planner(s), from state office of emergency services

8. Public works personnel

9. Loss estimation users.

10. Local business leader