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MAGICC/SCENGEN Hands On Tutorial. By Joel B. Smith Stratus Consulting Inc. Jsmith@stratusconsulting.com NCAR Summer 2006 Colloquium on Climate and Health July 18, 2006. Outline. Brief Introduction on Climate Change Scenarios

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magicc scengen hands on tutorial

MAGICC/SCENGEN Hands On Tutorial

By

Joel B. Smith

Stratus Consulting Inc.

Jsmith@stratusconsulting.com

NCAR Summer 2006 Colloquium on Climate and Health

July 18, 2006

outline
Outline
  • Brief Introduction on Climate Change Scenarios
  • Then, we’ll spend most of the time on the tutorial on MAGICC/SCENGEN
why use climate change scenarios
Why Use Climate Change Scenarios?
  • We are unsure exactly how regional climate will change
  • Scenarios are plausible combinations of variables consistent with what we know about human-induced climate change
  • One can think of them as the prediction of a model, contingent upon the greenhouse gas emissions scenario
  • Since estimates of regional change by models differ substantially, an individual model estimate should be treated more as a scenario
what are reasonable scenarios
What Are Reasonable Scenarios?
  • Scenarios should be:
    • Consistent with our understanding of the anthropogenic effects on climate
    • Internally consistent
      • e.g., clouds, temperature, precipitation
  • Scenarios are a communication tool about what is known and not known about climate change
    • Should reflect plausible range for key variables
scenarios for impacts analysis
Scenarios for Impacts Analysis
  • Need to be at a scale necessary for analysis
  • Spatial
    • e.g., to watershed or farm level
  • Temporal
    • Monthly
    • Daily
    • Sub-daily
regional climate change scenarios
Regional Climate Change Scenarios
  • Present range of possible regional changes in climate
  • Two roles
    • Use ranges of climate changes to help understand sensitivity of affected systems
    • Use ranges to communicate what is known and not known about regional climate change
      • Temperature rise and range of precipitation changes
tools for assessing regional model output
Tools for Assessing Regional Model Output
  • We’ll learn how to use a tool that enables us to examine output from a number of climate models
  • Can see degree to which models agree and disagree about regional changes
sources of uncertainty on regional climate change
Sources of Uncertainty on Regional Climate Change
  • GHG Emissions
  • Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
  • Climate Sensitivity, e.g., 2xCO2
  • Regional pattern of climate change
    • Distribution of changes in temperature and precipitation
  • Climate Variability
ghg emissions and concentrations projections
GHG Emissions and Concentrations Projections

Source: Houghton et al., 2001.

projections of global mean temperature change
Projections of Global Mean Temperature Change

Source: Houghton et al., 2001.

magicc scengen
MAGICC/SCENGEN
  • User can:
    • Select GHG emission scenarios e.g., from IPCC SRES
    • Can select CO2 concentration
    • Select climate sensitivity
    • Select GCMs to examine
      • Regional pattern is hard wired in
    • Can examine change in seasonal variability
      • Not interannual or daily
magicc scengen1
MAGICC/SCENGEN
  • MAGICC is a simple model of global T and SLR
  • Used in IPCC TAR
  • SCENGEN uses pattern scaling for 17 GCMs
  • Yield
    • Model by model changes
    • Mean change
    • Intermodel SD
    • Interannual variability changes
    • Current and future climate on 5 x 5°grid
normalizing gcm output
Normalizing GCM Output
  • Expresses regional change relative to an increase of 1°C in mean global temperature
    • This is a way to avoid high sensitivity models dominating results
    • It allows us to compare GCM output based on relative regional change
  • Normalized temperature change = ΔTRGCM/ΔTGMTGCM
  • Normalized precipitation change = ΔPRGCM/ΔTGMTGCM
pattern scaling
Pattern Scaling
  • Is a technique for estimating change in regional climate using normalized patterns of change and changes in GMT
  • Pattern scaled temperature change:
    • ΔTRΔGMT = (ΔTRGCM/ΔTGMTGCM) x ΔGMT
  • Pattern scaled precipitation
    • ΔPRΔGMT = (ΔPRGCM/ΔTGMTGCM) x ΔGMT
scengen quantitative results
SCENGEN: Quantitative Results

INTER-MOD S.D. : AREA AVERAGE = 5.186 % (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA)

INTER-MOD SNR : AREA AVERAGE = -.067 (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA)

PROB OF INCREASE : AREA AVERAGE = .473 (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA)

GHG ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = -.411 % (FOR SCALED DATA)

AEROSOL ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = -.277 % (FOR SCALED DATA)

GHG AND AEROSOL : AREA AVERAGE = -.687 % (FOR SCALED DATA)

*** SCALED AREA AVERAGE RESULTS FOR INDIVIDUAL MODELS ***

(AEROSOLS INCLUDED)

MODEL = BMRCD2 : AREA AVE = 2.404 (%)

MODEL = CCC1D2 : AREA AVE = -5.384 (%)

MODEL = CCSRD2 : AREA AVE = 6.250 (%)

MODEL = CERFD2 : AREA AVE = -2.094 (%)

MODEL = CSI2D2 : AREA AVE = 6.058 (%)

MODEL = CSM_D2 : AREA AVE = 1.245 (%)

MODEL = ECH3D2 : AREA AVE = .151 (%)

MODEL = ECH4D2 : AREA AVE = -1.133 (%)

MODEL = GFDLD2 : AREA AVE = 1.298 (%)

MODEL = GISSD2 : AREA AVE = -3.874 (%)

MODEL = HAD2D2 : AREA AVE = -5.442 (%)

MODEL = HAD3D2 : AREA AVE = -.459 (%)

MODEL = IAP_D2 : AREA AVE = -.088 (%)

MODEL = LMD_D2 : AREA AVE = -6.548 (%)

MODEL = MRI_D2 : AREA AVE = .065 (%)

MODEL = PCM_D2 : AREA AVE = -3.451 (%)

MODEL = MODBAR : AREA AVE = -.687 (%)

scengen error analysis continued
SCENGEN Error Analysis (continued)

UNWEIGHTED STATISTICS

MODEL CORREL RMSE MEAN DIFF NUM PTS

mm/day mm/day

BMRCTR .632 1.312 1.026 20

CCC1TR .572 1.160 -.207 20

CCSRTR .587 .989 .322 20

CERFTR .634 1.421 -1.167 20

CSI2TR .553 1.112 -.306 20

CSM_TR .801 1.044 -.785 20

ECH3TR .174 1.501 -.649 20

ECH4TR .767 1.121 -.881 20

GFDLTR .719 .954 -.553 20

GISSTR .688 .799 .123 20

HAD2TR .920 .743 -.598 20

HAD3TR .923 .974 -.883 20

IAP_TR .599 1.408 -.734 20

LMD_TR .432 2.977 -2.103 20

MRI_TR .216 2.895 -2.026 20

PCM_TR .740 1.372 -1.041 20

MODBAR .813 .879 -.654 20

what s new and exciting
What’s New (and Exciting)
  • SCENGEN is being updated
    • Have IPCC AR4 models
    • 2.5o resolution
    • May have other bells and whistles
  • Another very useful tool are the NCAR created PDFs
thank you

Thank You!

I’d be happy to take questions