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MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1. Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asia and Pacific Countries 20~24 March 2006 Jakarta, Indonesia. 1. What is it?.

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magicc scengen 4 1
MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1

Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE)

Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asia and Pacific Countries

20~24 March 2006

Jakarta, Indonesia

slide2

1. What is it?

  • A coupled gas-cycle/climate model (MAGICC) that drives a spatial climate change scenario generator (SCENGEN);
  • MAGICC: Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change; SCENGEN: SCENario GENerator;
  • Enabling non-expert users to investigate the implications of alternative emissions scenarios for future global and regional climate change;
  • Allowing the exploration of emissions scenarios and scientific uncertainties in projecting future global and regional climate change;
  • An upgraded version of MAGICC/SCENGEN2.4;
  • Model developed by Tom Wigley, GUI by Seth McGinnis, funded by U.S. EPA through Stratus Consulting
slide3

THE MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 : MAGICC

Library of

Emissions

Scenarios

Gas Cycle

Models

User Choices

of Model

Parameters

Atmospheric

Composition

Changes

Global-mean

Temperature

And Sea Level

Model

User Choices

Of Model

Parameters

Global-mean

Temperature

and Sea Level

Output

SCENGEN

slide4

THE MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 : SCENGEN

Global-mean Temperature

fromMAGICC

Library of

GCM Data Sets

User Choices

GCMs to use,

Future time slice,

Region,…

Regionalization

Algorithm

Library of

Baseline

Climatology

Data (1961-90)

Regional

Climate or

Climate Change

Output

slide19

SCENGEN: Numerical Results

INTER-MOD S.D. : AREA AVERAGE = 5.186 % (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA)

INTER-MOD SNR : AREA AVERAGE = -.067 (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA)

PROB OF INCREASE : AREA AVERAGE = .473 (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA)

GHG ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = -.411 % (FOR SCALED DATA)

AEROSOL ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = -.277 % (FOR SCALED DATA)

GHG AND AEROSOL : AREA AVERAGE = -.687 % (FOR SCALED DATA)

*** SCALED AREA AVERAGE RESULTS FOR INDIVIDUAL MODELS ***

(AEROSOLS INCLUDED)

MODEL = BMRCD2 : AREA AVE = 2.404 (%)

MODEL = CCC1D2 : AREA AVE = -5.384 (%)

MODEL = CCSRD2 : AREA AVE = 6.250 (%)

MODEL = CERFD2 : AREA AVE = -2.094 (%)

MODEL = CSI2D2 : AREA AVE = 6.058 (%)

MODEL = CSM_D2 : AREA AVE = 1.245 (%)

MODEL = ECH3D2 : AREA AVE = .151 (%)

MODEL = ECH4D2 : AREA AVE = -1.133 (%)

MODEL = GFDLD2 : AREA AVE = 1.298 (%)

MODEL = GISSD2 : AREA AVE = -3.874 (%)

MODEL = HAD2D2 : AREA AVE = -5.442 (%)

MODEL = HAD3D2 : AREA AVE = -.459 (%)

MODEL = IAP_D2 : AREA AVE = -.088 (%)

MODEL = LMD_D2 : AREA AVE = -6.548 (%)

MODEL = MRI_D2 : AREA AVE = .065 (%)

MODEL = PCM_D2 : AREA AVE = -3.451 (%)

MODEL = MODBAR : AREA AVE = -.687 (%)

slide20

To obtain the MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 software, please contact

Dr Tom Wigley

National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Boulder, Colorado

U.S.A

E-mail: wigley@ucar.edu

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/index.html