Future Aerosol Emissions From Industrial and Utility Boilers

1. Future Aerosol Emissions From Industrial and Utility Boilers Soonkyu Jung 1 Tami. C. Bond2, and David G. Streets3 1,2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA 3 Decision and Information Sciences, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA

2. Combustion Aerosols are an important pollutant in urban areas. PM2.5 are considered to have significant adverse effect to human health and stringent regulations to reduce PM2.5 emission have been issued in many world regions. Image from www.saltwater.co.uk/ downloads.htm

3. Black Carbon and Climate • Black carbon has been the second largest climate forcing after CO2. - Jacobson (2000) • “Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change” (Hansen et al, 2000)

4. Radiative Forcing (IPCC,2001)

5. Challenges • Warm or cool? • OC scatter light back to space thus acting to reduce the warming • BC warms climate by absorbing sun lights • Determining the ratio is a difficult task • Where & How much of the BC/OC comes from? • Different Combustion process / Control • Historical & future emission • Lack of historical data

6. Aerosol-Climate Study Overview Climate Model

7. Aerosol Emissions from Combustion Aerosol from deferent fuel Combustion technology have totally different properties & amount By Using this idea, we develop aerosol emission inventory www.upstate.edu/ pathenvi/basics/bas1.html

8. Total Emissions BOND ET AL., 2004 Where, j species; kcountry ; l sector; m fuel type ; n fuel/technology combination; Em Emissions FC fuel consumption, kg/yr EF Emission Factor specific to fuel/technology combination (including the effects of control devices), g/kg X Fraction of fuel of this sector consumed by a specific technology, where ∑X =1 for each fuel and sector

9. Determination of the total emission Diesel Super emitter Sector : Transport Fuel type Fuel Consumption Fuel Fraction Emission Factor 0.6 12 0.05 2kg pm 1,000kg 0.95 1.5 1.425 Diesel normal EFpm,g/kg 0.94 2.0 0.15 0.05

10. Present Day Estimate of BC/OC- Bond et al. 2004

11. Which of these will change in the future? Fuel Change Coal-fired, high BC Gas or electric, low BC www.sacecs.co.za en.wikipedia.org We Use IPCC SRES Scenario for fuel estimation

12. Which of these will change in the future? Technology Change Old burner - high BC Modern Combustor, low BC www.sacecs.co.za Google.com We Develop Dynamic Simulation tool For future technology splits

13. Which of these will change in the future? Emission Control Technology Electrostatic precipitator, high collection efficiency Cyclone, low collection efficiency Street, 2004 We Develop Dynamic Simulation tool For future technology splits

14. Governing factors of technology change • Diffusion Studies suggest • Adoption rate of new technology is: -Positively related to the Benefits & Technology popularity -Negatively related to the Costs • We use (based on historical trend simulation): • Emission Standards of species ( Regulation ) • Technology popularity (e.g. Installed Capacity) • Technology limitation (Newer technology takes time to be used in Developing countries) • Economic situation

15. Drivers : Regulation and Control Efficiency

16. Drivers : Government Regulation

17. Drivers : Capacity- Case of Cyclone Furnace Uncontrolled NO Concentrations for Types of combustion (Air Pollution Control Manual, 1992, p. 216)

18. Technology Choice Probabilities- Case of Cyclone Furnace

19. Drivers : - Boiler Population Trend

20. Estimate Boiler Age Distribution- From Fuel Consumption Data

21. Emission Standards Modeling- Particulate Matter over GDP per Capita

22. Drivers : Industry Sector Change Agriculture Dominant ---- Service Sector Dominant

23. Description of The Model

24. Schematic diagram for developing future emissions inventory model

25. Preliminary Result • Total global coal-boiler capacity is estimated to increase (in all scenarios , Ranging from 394%-605% for the power sector) • Use of coal boilers for power generation is expected to be high in many world regions, because the demand for electricity is expected to increase in all scenarios (from 340%-540%) and use of coal for electricity generation to remain high (20%-31%)

26. Preliminary Result (Cont.) • The boiler capacity in South Asia is forecasted to take the largest of the 2050 values of 9%-20% under most scenarios except A2 scenario which expects USA as the largest share

27. Selected global combustion technology changes (a)

28. Questions? • Thank you

29. Description of The Model- Simulate initial Distribution of Boilers • Create Boiler inventory • Combustor Type • Control Equipment Type • Boiler Age (Estimated from Fuel Consumption) • Capacity Distribution

30. Description of The Model- Run the Model for a Step Year • Examine Boiler Age and Retire Boilers • Check New Regulation and Upgrade Control Equipment • Calculate amount of capacity of boilers in this step year • Determine the firing type and control device

31. Description of The Model- Determine Emissions • Technology Splits from simulation will be interfaced with Emission Inventory program

32. 17 World Regions in this model (From IMAGE Group 2002)

33. Boiler Capacity Distribution- Assume Follow S-Shape Curve

34. Schematic methodology for the development of future emission inventory of boilers U.S DOE Utility Survey Determine Distribution - Create 10 Capacity Groups Determine model size of a country U.S. EPA Industrial Boiler Inventory IEA Historical Fuel Data Set unit number in each group Simulate Distribution Number of Units of Groups Determine Age Based on U.S Historical Trend + IEA Historical Fuel data Create Blank Cells Bond et al 2004 Inventory Initialize Unit properties (Sources) Capacity (Distribution module) Technology (Previous Inventory) Age (Age module) IPCC Scenarios A1, A2, B1, B2 Fuel, GDP Run the model to the Next 5Year Retire Boilers ChK Boilers Age GDP Regulation Modeling Choose New Control Device New Regulations? Current Emission Standards Data probability model Need New Boilers? Choose New Boilers Future Capacity Modeling Target Year? Y Future Fuel Splits No, Next Step Determine Technology Splits Emission Factor Modeling Modules Future Emission Inventory SPEW GDP

35. Economic A2 A1 Global Re gio nal B1 B2 Environmental y m A n o g o ( n r i P L t y i o a a p l o u g c n c o E u d l n l E o - e t n r g h y u c u e T s r e e ) s D e c r i r v o i F n g SRES Scenarios

36. What are the IPCC SRES scenarios Globalisation A1 Balanced A1 Fossil A1 Technology B1 Emphasis on material wealth Emphasis on sustainability and equity A2 B2 Regionalisation

37. IPCC Scenarios Globalisation Globalised, extensive ‘Sustainable development’ Globalised, intensive ‘Market-Forces’ Emphasis on material wealth Emphasis on sustainability and equity Regional, intensive ‘Clash of civilisations’ Regional, extensive ‘Mixed green bag’ Regionalisation /fragmentation

38. Impacts • Impacts of more intense rainfall on storm drains/sewers • Changes in circulation and the implications for air pollution • Coastal cities and tidal surge • Implications of increased wind storm IPCC Working Group, 2002

39. Present Day Estimate of BC/OC- Bond et al. 2004

40. Previous Estimates of Aerosol Emissions From Fossil Fuel Combustion (Tg/Year)

41. Calculation • j species • BC( Black Carbon) or OC( Organic Carbon) • k country • Country level (in large country, State or Province level) • l sector • Residential, Industry, Power, Transport, Biomass Burning • m fuel type • Diesel, Hard Coal, Gasoline, Wood… • n fuel/technology combination • Fuel used by a specific technology

42. Total Emission(2-2) Sector Fuel Fuel/Technology combination

43. Emission Factors (EF) • Emission Factors of BC and OC ( j = BC or OC ) • EFBC=EFPM F1.0 FBC Fcont, Where EFPM the bulk particulate emission factor, g/kg F1.0 fraction of emissions with diameters smaller than 1μm FBC fraction of fine particulate matter that is black carbon Fcont the fraction of fine PM that penetrates the control device • EFOC=EFPM F1.0 FOC Fcont, Where FOC fraction of fine particulate matter that is organic carbon

44. Fuel consumption of the future • FCi,k,l,m= FC1996,k,l,m× FCIMi,k,l,m / FCIM1996,k,l,m where FC1996,k,l,m IEA Energy Statistics data for the year 1996 FCIM fuel consumption in the IPCC IMAGE dataset.

45. Emission factors for the future • EFi,j,l,m,n = EFPMi,j,l,m,n× fsubj,l,m,n×fCj,l,m,n ×fconti,l,m,n Where fsub = f1.0 fC = fraction of the particulate matter that is carbon (FBC +FOC)

46. EFi,j,k,l,m,n = EFPMi,j,l,m,n× fsubj,l,m,n×fCj,l,m,n ×fconti,l,k,m,n Evolution of Emission Factors • fCj,l,m,n , fsubj,l,m,n andEFPM Constant over time for each combination of scenario/species/sector/fuel/technology • fconti,l,k,m,n • Collection efficiency could be estimated from regulation, economics, technology innovation fcont = 1/{1+exp(-[log(αCn)+ βStdpm+ γ])} where, α, β, γcoefficients Cn technology adoption parameter Stdpm Emission Standards of particulate matter

47. Radiative Forcing

48. Values of Particulate Matter Emission Characteristics for Stationary Combustion BOND ET AL., 2004

49. Short-term emission standards reflect present (and proposed) legislation longer term emission standards are assumed to improve due to technological enhancements Use GDP per Capita as a proxy for technological enhancements Emission Standards Modeling