1 / 21

Field Research Facility

Observations Computer Modeling Model Validations. Field Research Facility. Established in 1977 to Advance Coastal Knowledge Through Research and Discovery. FEMA REGION III COASTAL STORM SURGE PROJECT OVERVIEW. Jeff Hanson U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

thu
Download Presentation

Field Research Facility

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Observations • Computer Modeling • Model Validations Field Research Facility Established in 1977 to Advance Coastal Knowledge Through Research and Discovery

  2. FEMA REGION III COASTAL STORM SURGE PROJECT OVERVIEW Jeff Hanson U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility, Duck, NC November 1, 2011 FEMA-USACE Coastal Hazard Workshop US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC)

  3. Project Objectives • Storm Forcing • Extratropical Wind Fields • Hurricane Tracks Development Phase (2008-2011) Develop and validate a storm surge modeling capability for the assessment of inundation risk in Region III High-Res Bathy / Topo Mesh • Consistent 10-m DEM for the region • Extratropical and tropical storm hazard • Integrated flood risk modeling system • Comprehensive system validation Storm Surge Modeling Winds Waves Water Levels • Return Period Analysis • Hurricanes • Extratropical Storms Production Phase (2011) Flood Levels 10-, 50-, 100-, & 500-year • Extratropical and tropical storm production runs • Extratropical return period analysis (EST) • Tropical return period analysis (JPM) • Synthesis of results Assess the Region III flood hazard values for 10-, 50-, 100- and 500-yr return periods

  4. Project Partners USACE – Project Oversight, DEM, Model Validations, Extratropical Analysis, Mapping review Renaissance Computing Institute – DEM, Modeling System, Production, GIS Viewer, Analysis University of North Carolina – Water level modeling guidance Applied Research Associates – Synthetic Hurricanes, JPM Return Period Analysis ARCADIS – DEM, Modeling Mesh Oceanweather – Extratropical and Hurricane Wind Fields Elizabeth City State University – GIS Displays RAMPP – Project Review, Mapping Phase Lead

  5. Project Partners North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Project Partners: Leveraging of Capability and Modeling Infrastructure for Region III Study

  6. Project Organization FEMA Program Manager Robin Danforth FEMA / DHS Region III Advisory Board R. Luettich (UNC-CH) B. Ebersole (USACE-CHL) J. Smith (USACE-CHL) K. White (USACE-CRREL) K. Galluppi (RENCI) M. Powell (DE) NAP, NAB, NAO USACE Storm Surge Project Manager J. Hanson (USACE-FRF) M. Forte (USACE-FRF) J. Roughton (USACE-FRF) RAMPP J. Gangai (Dewberry) B. Batten (Dewberry) Bathy / Topo M. Forte (USACE-FRF) L. Stillwell (RENCI) J. Miller (NAP) M. Hudgins (NAO) P. Moye (NAO) M. Schuster (NAB) J. Scott (NAB) H. Roberts (ARCADIS) J. Atkinson (ARCADIS) Storm Specification P. Vickery (ARA) V. Cardone (Oceanweather) A. Cox (Oceanweather) Modeling System B. Blanton (RENCI) P. Vickery (ARA) V. Cardone (Oceanweather) A. Cox (Oceanweather) GIS Database K. Gamiel (RENCI) B. Blanton (RENCI) L. Stillwell (RENCI) M. Forte (USACE-FRF) J. Yuan (ECSU) Validation H. Wadman (USACE-FRF) J. Hanson (USACE-FRF) B. Blanton (RENCI)

  7. FEMA Region III Study Area • Four states • Five metropolitan areas Region III Population Density

  8. FEMA Region III Study Area • Four states plus District of Columbia • Five metropolitan areas • Complex coastal geomorphology • Delaware River/Bay system - Tidal up to Trenton, NJ - 782 square mile bay - Strategic shipping and military port • Chesapeake bay - Third largest estuary in world - 11,000 miles of tidal shoreline - Major shipping, seafood and military ports

  9. High Resolution Bathymetry and Topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM) • Data assimilation through USACE districts • Use Lidar for topography where available • Region initially divided into 20 tiles • Consistent bathy/topo surface with 10-m horizontal resolution 10-m Resolution Region III DEM Geographic Tiles

  10. High Resolution Bathymetry and Topography Unstructured Modeling Mesh • Mesh triangulation through alignment with DEM features ADCIRC Modeling Mesh Project Site

  11. High Resolution Bathymetry and Topography Unstructured Modeling Mesh • Mesh triangulation through alignment with DEM features • Interpolation of DEM elevations to mesh • Manual insertion of control points Elevations (m)

  12. Water Levels SWAN Coupling ADCIRC Coastal Circulation and Storm Surge Model Storm Surge Modeling System Wind and Pressure Fields HBL Hurricane Model OWI Extratropical Reconstructions Waves/ Radiation Stress unSWANBasin and Coastal Waves Radiation Stress

  13. Region III Modeling System Validation Isabel Isabel

  14. Storm Forcing Identify and reconstruct historical extratropical storms in Region III • Selection based on water levels at 10 stations • Top ranked 30 historical storms 1975-2008 • Nor’Ida (Nov ‘09) added as 31st Storm • Kinematic reanalysis of all wind fields • Careful validation against historical records Reconstructed pressure fieldsFebruary 1998 Event – A top-ranked storm

  15. Central Pressure Difference Heading Storm Forcing Develop a representative set of synthetic hurricanes • Record of 20 hurricanes in 60 years insufficient for 100- and 500-yr computations • ARA 100,000-yr synthetic storm set used to extract 156 representative storm tracks • Demonstrated validity with comparisons to historic data Modeled Tracks VA/DE/NJ

  16. Storm Forcing Develop a representative set of synthetic hurricanes JPM vs. 100,000 yr Dataset • Record of 20 hurricanes in 60 years insufficient for 100- and 500-yr computations • ARA 100,000-yr synthetic storm set used to extract 156 representative storm tracks • Demonstrated validity with comparisons to historic data • Joint Probability Method (JPM) hurricane track parameters assigned • Windfield reconstruction with HBL Tropical cyclone windfield model HBL Windfield

  17. Production Runs Computations • 28 Extratropical Storms • 156 Hurricanes Region III Solution Browser • GIS interface to results • Google-earth displays of storm tracks, model output fields and return periods Storm Selection Inundation Levels

  18. Statistical Analysis Lewes, DE Combined 100-yr Water Levels (m) Extratropical Water Levels Surge Levels Return Period Combined Analysis • Extratropical water levels • Hurricane water levels • Tidal contributions • 10, 50, 100, and 500-yr levels

  19. Project Review Peer-reviewed by National Experts Project Team Results Advisory Group Oversight RAMPP Review ERDC Review Project Reports

  20. Project Reports 1.2 Modeling System 1.1 DEM 1.3 Storm Forcing Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Final Report 2. Model Validation 3. Final Analysis • Document methods and results • Multi-tiered reviews • Released as formal reports

  21. Extra-Tropical Storm Ida, Delaware

More Related