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POL 324: Asian Politics

POL 324: Asian Politics. Presentation by Dr. Kevin Lasher. Tiananmen Uprising. Tiananmen Background. Decade of significant economic reform Resistance to economic reform; ambiguity for political reform “Liberal” Hu Yaobang ousted in 1987. Tiananmen Background.

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POL 324: Asian Politics

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  1. POL 324: Asian Politics Presentation by Dr. Kevin Lasher

  2. Tiananmen Uprising

  3. Tiananmen Background • Decade of significant economic reform • Resistance to economic reform; ambiguity for political reform • “Liberal” Hu Yaobang ousted in 1987

  4. Tiananmen Background • Deng Xiaoping for “limited” political reform (CCP control) • CCP Old Guard remembers GPCR and Red Guards

  5. Tiananmen Background • Rising expectations plus dissatisfaction among Chinese • Gorbachev’s reforms in USSR and EE (break-up just beginning)

  6. Tiananmen Background • Spontaneous (chaotic) movement • CCP majority did not understand nature of the situation

  7. Tiananmen Timeline March 1989 Protests and crackdown in Tibet April 15 Death of ousted reformer Hu Yaobang; demonstrations begin April 26 People’s Daily (Deng) attacked students as anti-party and anti-government May 4 Gen Sec Zhao Ziyang supports students in a speech May 13 Students begin hunger strike May 15 CCP humiliated during visit of Gorbachev May 19 Martial law declared

  8. Tiananmen Timeline May 20-24 PLA moves toward Tiananmen, then withdraws May 30 Goddess of Democracy appears June 3-4 PLA troops begin to enter square; 500-2000 civilians killed June 9 Deng Xiaoping on TV to defend actions of CCP June 23 Zhao Ziyang officially replaced as General Secretary by Jiang Zemin Nov. 29 Jiang Zemin becomes Chair of Central Military Commission as Deng gives up final post

  9. What Price did China Pay?

  10. What Price did China Pay? • Western sanctions imposed • US cuts military sales • World Bank stops loans • UN resolution condemns China

  11. What Price did China Pay? • Japan supports new loans at G-7 meeting in summer 1990 • World Bank and Asian Development Bank follow soon after • Most sanctions lifted by end of 1990

  12. What Price did China Pay? ALMOST NOTHING

  13. Was Tiananmen Violence Inevitable? 1) Hard-liners and elders 2) Students became too extreme 3) Slowness of reformers 4) Goals of movement?

  14. Hard-liners and Elders • CCP faction who had long opposed Deng’s reforms • Elders remembered chaos of GPCR • Deng becomes hard-liner from early stages of crisis, Deng extremely cautious on political reforms • Some evidence that Deng was “manipulated” by hard-liners into martial law

  15. Students Become Extreme • Radical and moderate student leaders emerge • New leadership arrives from outside Beijing • On a couple of occasions, moderate student leaders try to convince everyone to leave Tiananmen Square • Many students leave before final assault

  16. Slowness of Reformers • Zhao Ziyang leaves for trip to North Korea in early phases • Reports that Zhao and others sought to seek extraordinary meeting of NPC to oust Li Peng • What “tools” would reformers have used to combat hard-liners? • Perhaps more impossibility of task rather than late action

  17. Slowness of Reformers • Ultimate constituency of one – Deng Xiaoping • Evidence that Deng took hard-line position early on in events; question of timing and nature of crack-down

  18. Goals of Movement? • Better university conditions to unclear calls for democracy • Not able to topple CCP, so what could realistically be achieved in short-term? • What would be “reasonable demands” ?

  19. Goals of Movement? • In unlikely scenario of CCP collapse, who would have taken power? • In EE and USSR (1989-91), there were “other forces” waiting to take power

  20. Aftermath • Thousands of individuals arrested or detained following massacre • Estimates of executions from dozen to hundreds

  21. Aftermath • Many student leaders escaped or exiled to West • Events are relatively unknown in China today • Internet blocked on references to “Tiananmen Uprising, “June 4 Incident,” etc.

  22. After the massacre, a student leader said, "The government has won the battle here today. But they have lost the people's hearts."

  23. Make a rather strong case that the Tiananmen Square Uprising and Massacre has had very little impact on the cause of political reform/democratization in China

  24. One-time unique event which actually helped the CCP to strengthen its control over Chinese society, in the long-run

  25. Paper Assignment

  26. The End

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