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Losses From 1997-98 El Nino

Losses From 1997-98 El Nino. Deadliest Tornado Outbreak in Florida History - Most Damaging Tornado Outbreak in South Florida History - Most Strong and Violent Tornadoes in Florida Since 1983 Extensive Flooding Rains. Decadal Trend in Florida Population Growth.

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Losses From 1997-98 El Nino

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  1. Losses From 1997-98 El Nino • Deadliest Tornado Outbreak in Florida History - Most Damaging Tornado Outbreak in South Florida History - Most Strong and Violent Tornadoes in Florida Since 1983 • Extensive Flooding Rains

  2. Decadal Trend in Florida Population Growth

  3. Goal: Predict Dry Season Storminess Over Florida as Far in Advance as Possible From Observed and Predicted Pacific SST’s and other Telleconnections and Exploit the Results Seasonal Storminess - The Accumulated Passage of Significant Extratropical Cyclones

  4. >Tornadoes – Hailstorms – Damaging Wind – Flooding Rain- Coastal Flooding – Gradient Winds – Marine Hazards >Beneficial Rain >Lack of Storms - Drought - Wildfire

  5. ImprovedStorminessClimatology Individual Inspection of “Statistical Storms” 1948-2002 for Validity, Track, and Jet Track – Left 329 Storms Average of 6 Per Dry Season – Mode/Median 5

  6. Significant Interseasonal Variability

  7. Is Seasonal Variability Related to ENSO? 1948 - 2002

  8. Lesson Learned: Limited to Two Variables Due to Multicolinearity

  9. Taylor Russell Diagram of Predicted Versus Observed Storminess Many predictor combinations gave similar results Strong relationship between ENSO and above/below normal storminess – Especially extreme phases which generally have most significant impact BEST 02-03 11

  10. Scatter Plot of Nino 3.0 and Florida Dry Season Storms (1950-2002) 83-84 01-02 Updated Historical Conditional Probabilities In Progress

  11. Synthesis of “ensemble” MLR, Conditional historical Probabilities, Recent trends, and Forecaster experience and Judgment.

  12. Some Issues The ENSO Neutral Forecast Challenge Monthly Dry Season Nino 3.0 for 2001-02 and 1983-04 Very Similar 83-84 4th Stormiest Ever – 2001-02 Tied For Least Stormiest Ever!

  13. PNA Appears to be the Dominant Seasonal Telleconnecton 1983-84 2001-02

  14. 2001-02 Season – 1 Storm in Neutral ENSO – Near Record Dryness NAO PNA

  15. Our Forecast is Dependent on Other Forecasts • Accurate ENSO Forecast as far in advance as possible. • Seasonal Outlooks of PNA, NAO etc. • Expand MLR to include PNA/NAO with ENSO Stratified by phase.

  16. Improved Florida Storm Impact Climatology is Underway Not all Storms are Created Equal – Some Don’t Reach Their Potential Many are purely beneficial Two Types With Greatest Potential Negative Impact: Gulf Low with Gulf Jet or “Florida Cyclone”

  17. There is strong evidence that while these two types of storms are not exclusive to El Nino Seasons They are more likely in them! Strong Gulf Jet Crossing Strong Trailing Cold Front

  18. Impacts Can Be Quite Localized – 2002/03 Moderate El Nino – Record December Storminess and Rainfall Across Central Florida (Volusia County Flooding) Strong El Nino’s Appear More Likely to Impact More Areas…However Ability To Forecast Which Area of State Might Bear the Brunt is Problematic.

  19. Are We In A “Stormier” Period – and Will it Continue?

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