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32nd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference July 30, 2013. Analysis of the Impacts of Shale Gas Supply under a CO2 Tax Scenario. NETL Pittsburgh PA and Morgantown WV. Chris Nichols Office of Strategic Energy Analysis and Planning National Energy Technology Laboratory. Disclaimer.
July 30, 2013
Analysis of the Impacts of Shale Gas Supply under a CO2 Tax Scenario
NETL Pittsburgh PA and Morgantown WV
Office of Strategic Energy Analysis and Planning
National Energy Technology Laboratory
This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed therein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof.
Source: ESPA Analysis
Lowered capital costs for CNG vehicles
Increased industrial growth
Increased utilization in electricity sector
Electricity growth in the Basecase is driven by natural gas and some loss in coal generation from EPA regulations
With higher gas supplies, more coal is economically pushed out and overall generation is slightly higher
Increasing gas supplies alone does not change industrial gas use substantially – modifications to industrial end-demand are required to model an industrial renaissance
Increased gas supplies are not enough to change use of NG in transportation sector – changes to capital cost assumptions for CNG vehicles were required to move from gasoline to NG
NG use in transportation drives a large price increase
More abundant gas lowers the price path
Industrial use only increases price minimally
Various non-CO2 control scenarios do not move overall CO2 emissions much
CO2 tax reduces emissions by 30%,much less than the 80% reduction from 2005 levels (~1,2000 Mt)
In the CO2 Tax case, CCS-based electricity provides a large portion of electricity generation
CCS allows the electricity sector to substantially reduce its CO2 footprint, but increased gas use in the industrial and transportation sectors limits the total CO2 reduction potential
Nadja Victor, Booz Allen
Peter Balash, NETL