Plan for Today: Transitology – Models and Types of Transition

1. Plan for Today:Transitology – Models and Types of Transition Become familiar with relations among actors in transition. Understand O’Donnell & Schmitter’s cycle of mobilization model. Distinguish Huntington’s 3 types of transition and identify cases.

2. Key relationships in transitions Government Soft-liners Hard-liners Radical Anti-democracy Pro-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Radicals Moderates Opposition

3. Key relationships in transitions Government Soft-liners Hard-liners Conservative Anti-democracy Radical Anti-democracy Pro-democracy Radicals Moderates Opposition

4. Key relationships in transitions Government Soft-liners Hard-liners Conservative Anti-democracy Radical Anti-democracy Pro-democracy Radicals Moderates Opposition

5. Key relationships in transitions Government Soft-liners Hard-liners Conservative Anti-democracy Radical Anti-democracy Pro-democracy Radicals Moderates Opposition

6. Balance of Power Among Players • If hardliners very strong, democratization can’t occur. • If soft-liners and opposition moderates both strong, democratization likely. • If radicals very strong, either radical outcome or hard-liner backlash occurs.

7. Cycle of Mobilization(O’Donnell & Schmitter) Initial Liberalization Soft-liners believe they can keep control of transition Hard-liners’ fears of disorder seem confirmed; their allies increase – fear of coup “Resurrection of Civil Society” - protests, disorder, demands Demobilization of Civil Society As fear of coup increases, opposition becomes more vocal People become tired and run out of resources; Soft-liners and moderates have become majority; negotiating over details rather than regime type

8. Types of Transition By Sources of Democratization (Source: Huntington, p. 114)

9. TransformationsExamples • Spain • Brazil • USSR • Bulgaria • Mexico

10. Characteristics of Transformations • Sequence and scope of changes slower and more stable. • Allies of authoritarian regime have better chance of remaining relevant in regime that follows. • Requires emergence and strength of reformers in regime. • Occurs after failure of liberalization alone. • Involves coopting opposition.

11. ReplacementsExamples • Romania • Argentina • Greece • East Germany • Tunisia? Typically personal dictatorships.

12. Replacements • Regime dominated by hardliners. • Opposition gains strength until government collapses or is overthrown. • Military support of opposition usually key. • Clean break with past. • Leaders of old regime often face nasty fates.

13. TransplacementsExamples • Poland • Czechoslovakia • South Africa • Tunisia?

14. Transplacements • Combined actions of government and opposition. • Government and opposition both realize they are not powerful enough to determine regime type. • Characterized by negotiations, flip-flops. • Softliners & moderates come to feel bound together by fate.